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Oil falls on inventory data

A couple of days ago it looked as though we were well on our way to $70 oil, but prices have fallen over $1 a barrel today following this week's inventory data from the Energy Information Administration.

In its report the EIA indicated that oil stockpiles last week rose by an impressive 6.9 million barrels and gasoline reserves increased by 1.8 million barrels. With both oil and gasoline inventories up traders have pushed oil down $1.08 to $68.02 and for the moment has put the brakes on the recent bullish run for oil.

Refinery production has been a vital area of concern this year with American refineries being unable to maintain output levels running above the critical 90% range. Even though gasoline inventories were able to jump last week, America's refineries are not able to take responsibility for the recent upward move. The EIA reported that refinery output actually fell last week 1.6% down to 87.6%. The truth behind last week's increase was actually a rise in supplies of blending components for gasoline.

Even with today's inventory data and subsequent pullback in oil prices I do not think that we have seen the end of this current bull oil market. For now things are cooling off, but let's not forget that we are still only at the beginning of the summer driving months, and with all the violence that is taking place in the Middle East these days, there are still plenty of factors that could, and should, lead to higher prices by the end of the month. We may see oil pull back another couple of dollars down to $66, but I for one will not bet against $70 oil by the end of the month just yet.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

More pain at the pumps -- and getting worse?

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about consumers feeling the heat from scorching gasoline prices. At that time I pointed out that some analysts are predicting that we will be seeing $4 gasoline this year! While we have yet to see this sort of price explosion, we are now looking at all time highs for gasoline costs across America.

In a new study that just came out over the weekend, industry analyst Trilby Lundberg noted that the average price of a gallon of gasoline in America is costing consumers $3.07 per gallon. Lundberg reached this average after taking a survey of 7,000 gasoline stations nationwide. At this level we are now slightly above the previous record high for a gallon of gas which was set last summer on Aug. 11 at $3.03.

What impact is this going to have on drivers? Are we going to see a sudden slow down in driving? Doubtful. The plain and simple truth is, as Tom Barlow pointed out last week, no matter how high the prices go, drivers will continue to fill up their tanks, going about business as usual. Tom pointed out a couple of good reasons why the market will be more than willing to pay $3 for gasoline, and his arguments would hold water even should prices continue to rise and we do reach $4 gasoline over the next couple of months.

While the report out of Lundberg this weekend definitely gives us a reason to shudder at the thought of the next time we hit our local gas station, what I am going to be paying more attention to this week are the new estimates that will be coming out of the Energy Information Administration. They are scheduled to release their new estimates tomorrow on what levels we can expect to see gasoline hitting this year.

Continue reading More pain at the pumps -- and getting worse?

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S&P 500-19.141,091.49

Last updated: November 28, 2009: 01:44 AM

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