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It was an October in which stocks fell over

Joseph Lazzaro — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 14:44:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Indices, S and P 500, DJIA, Recession, NASDAQ, Financial Crisis

Like most married men with a newborn child, economist David H. Wang's nights and weekends are filled with baby care, and diapers galore.

"And telephone calls," Wang said.

Telephone calls?

"Frantic telephone calls from family and friends in China," said Wang, who grew up in China before moving permanently to the states in 1989. "They all want to know, 'should I sell this stock here?' or 'sell this mutual fund?' or 'get out of the market entirely?' Compared to dealing with these calls, baby care is easy."

You can understand why Wang's family and friends may be nervous and seeking his advice. The S&P 500 is on-pace to record its worst monthly point decline ever (but not the worst percentage decline ever), CNNMoney.com reported Friday. As of Thursday's market close, the S&P 500 had fallen 204.8 points this month. Meanwhile, the Dow had dropped 1,669 points, or 15%, as of Thursday's close.

And what were the worst percentage declines ever for S&P 500? You guessed it: the worst occurred during the Great Depression, two years after the stock market crash in 1929: in September 1931, the S&P fell an ugly 29.94%, CNNMoney.com reported.

The second-worst percentage decline? October 1987, when the Black Monday crash occurred: the S&P plunged 21.76%, CNNMoney.com reported.

Global stock markets hammered, as well

Further, this October will also go down in history as one of the worst months for foreign stock markets. The October swoon has added to what can only be diplomatically described as a difficult year for foreign stocks. So far this year, several foreign markets have recorded losses greater than 30%, and many are at multi-year lows, FT.com reported Friday. The Japanese, South Korean and Hong Kong stock markets have all lost half their value this year. European stock markets are down 45% in 2008, including a stunning 40% decline in the U.K.'s FTSE 100, known as the "Footsie 100."

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U.S. House leadership's new task: Find 13 more votes ...

Joseph Lazzaro — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:59:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Financial Crisis

By almost all accounts, the defeat of the bailout / rescue bill stunned those both inside the beltway, on Wall Street, and across the nation.

Many political analysts projected that the bill would be approved by the U.S. House of Representatives by about a 80-100 vote margin. The reality: bill defeated, 228-205 and the stock market plunged a big seven zero zero and more.

Public policy analysts, professional and otherwise, will spend ample time investigating the reasons why the bill failed, but in a crisis such as this one, congressional leaders, save for reviewing their mistakes, do not have time for the stuff of graduate seminars in public policy: they need to get a rescue bill passed.

Now what?

Well first, don't panic. As George Bailey (Jimmy Stewart) said during the bank run on the the Bailey Building & Loan in the movie, It's A Wonderful Life, "Now just remember that this thing isn't as black as it appears. Now, we can get through this thing all right. But we've, we've got to stick together."

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U.S. House leadership's new task: Find 13 more votes ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Rescue package: Oil change for U.S. economy; next up: tune-up

Joseph Lazzaro — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Financial Crisis

Metaphors sometimes oversimplify, but think of the U.S. Congress' 2008 bailout bill (pdf) as a long-overdue oil change for the U.S. economy.

Still, as any driver knows, an oil change is not enough to keep a car running well. You need to have it tuned, and keep all of its engine, transmission and related systems maintained for the car to perform safely. So next up for the U.S. economy: a tuneup.

But regarding the rescue, if it goes reasonably according to plan, the U.S. Treasury, and the companion agencies the rescue creates, will slowly remove distressed / bad assets from the financial system, and in the process both stabilize the credit markets, and equally important, restore confidence in the financial system.

Of course, there's no guarantee the rescue will work as intended, but there was near unanimous agreement in economic and investment circles about what would happen without it: a freezing-up of the credit markets, contagion in stock and bond markets, panic, and a substantial reduction in the ability of companies small and large to function. In short, the worst financial panic since the stock market crash of 1929 that led to the Great Depression.

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Rescue package: Oil change for U.S. economy; next up: tune-up originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 29 Sep 2008 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Advisor: Best thing for U.S. markets now would be a 'quick crash'

Joseph Lazzaro — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:09:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, DJIA, Recession

Clem Chambers, CEO of stocks/ investment web site ADVFN, argues in an article in Forbes.com that the best thing that could happen to the markets right now would be a quick stock market crash.

Chambers writes: "In many ways, the best thing that could happen now would be a quick crash. A lot of professionals are praying for a so called 'puke' because that would set a bottom for a recovery and signal that the worst is over. A short, sharp shock would be good for everyone. Recovery is better than sickening."

Chambers also notes that the market may very well be in the process of crashing right now, but until there's a period of relative calm or a massive drop, it's too soon to tell. Chambers added that if a crash does happen, it will occur in the next few weeks, and if it doesn't he sees a bear market for an extended period of time (It should also be noted that Chambers' other scenarios for the period ahead, 2008-2010, are a protracted period of volatility or a small/short bear market).

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Advisor: Best thing for U.S. markets now would be a 'quick crash' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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