BloggingStocks

U.S. today seen better-equipped to cope with oil, food price rises than 1970s

Joseph Lazzaro — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 16:17:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Other Issues, Commodities, Oil

Just call it stagflation, updated for the globalization era.

Oil's record, 5-year rise, combined with increasing food costs, have increased inflation, reduced disposable income, and slowed the U.S. economy to a crawl, when combined with the effects of the end of the housing boom.

The above sounds like a prescription for a replay of the 1970s' stagflation era, but is it? Not quite, according to Stephen Cecchetti, professor of economics at the Brandeis University International Business School.

Cecchetti told Bloomberg News Thursday a more-flexible economy, with lower stockpiles of goods, increased fuel efficiency, increased worker productivity, and lower wage increases for employees are among the economic differences separating the 1970s and 2008 U.S. economies. As a result, Cecchetti doesn't see a repeat of the 1970s' high inflation/high unemployment levels.

Economist David H. Wang concurred with the above conclusion, but argued that the two major factors in the nation's enhanced ability to cope with large increases in commodity costs and other negative economic factors are energy efficiency and worker productivity.

Continue reading U.S. today seen better-equipped to cope with oil, food price rises than 1970s

U.S. today seen better-equipped to cope with oil, food price rises than 1970s originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Jun 2008 16:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Rising inflation: Could the United States have prevented it?

Joseph Lazzaro — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:11:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Other Issues, Commodities, Oil, Agriculture, Recession

Inflation, public enemy No. 1 in the 1970s in the United States, appears to be regaining its former title in the first decade of the 21st century.

But is it here to stay? That depends on the data you're looking at, most economists agree. U.S. inflation is trending higher, but whether it is more structural or cyclical (simply a product of current demand conditions), is the focus of debate in economics circles.

Structural view

Economist Peter Dawson says structural changes are occurring that will keep inflation well above the U.S. Federal Reserve's 2-2.5% comfort zone for years. Those changes include strong demand for commodities in both emerging and developed economies, the U.S. budget deficit and trade deficit, and the weak U.S. dollar.

"What we're seeing today, in my view, is a new economic age. It's not a cliché. We have more than half the world developing at the same time and it has and will continue to place pressure on commodity prices, oil being the first, but now grains / food stuffs and minerals following close behind," Dawson said. "This is creating a whole new cost layer not only in the U.S., but around the world."

A classic market theorist, Dawson does expect higher prices to do what they're supposed to do, eventually: reduce demand. However, with regard to grains, it's difficult to predict the level at which demand will ebb, due to government subsidies. Meanwhile, oil, he said, "is reaching its zenith, probably at $125 per barrel." Further, Dawson believes a sustained $100 oil price will "propel the development of cheaper, alternative energy sources in the next decade" that will enable sufficient global economic growth. But until commodity demand cools and new energy forms arise, you can expect above-average inflation, both in the U.S. and globally.

Continue reading Rising inflation: Could the United States have prevented it?

Rising inflation: Could the United States have prevented it? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 23 Apr 2008 16:11:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

March consumer confidence index plunges to a 35-year low

Joseph Lazzaro — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 11:40:00 EST

Filed under: Bad News, Consumer Experience, Economic Data

U.S. consumer confidence is at its lowest level since the Nixon Administration of the 1970s, according to one measure. U.S. consumer confidence fell in March 2008 to 64.5 -- a 35-year low -- the Conference Board announced Tuesday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to drop to 73.0 in March 2008. The February 2008 index was revised to 76.4.

The board said that consumers' evaluation of present-day conditions weakened significantly. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 25.4% from 21.3%, while those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 15.4% from 19.1%. Consumers' assessment of the job market was considerably more pessimistic than last month. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 25.1% from 23.4%, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 18.8% from 21.5%.

Continue reading March consumer confidence index plunges to a 35-year low

March consumer confidence index plunges to a 35-year low originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 25 Mar 2008 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments