BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com BloggingStocks http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/media/feedlogo.gif BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com en-us Copyright 2012 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[October 1987 was much worse than October 2008]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/31/october-1987-was-much-worse-than-october-2008/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/31/october-1987-was-much-worse-than-october-2008/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/31/october-1987-was-much-worse-than-october-2008/#commentsFiled under: ,

October 19, 1987 was the day that the Dow fell a record 22.6% -- then a record 508 point decline. (The Dow lost a total of 21.8% during that month). By contrast, the current month is on track to end down a relatively modest 16.6%. But even though the Dow went down much more in October 1987 than it did in October 2008, it turns out that the 1987 crash preceded the economic contraction by about two years. By contrast, the October 2008 crash seems to be happening at the same time as the economy implodes.

I remember the October 1987 crash well because I was working in a consulting firm whose CEO asked a colleague of mine to come up with a list of stocks to buy. He was convinced that the 508 point decline was an anomaly that did not reflect the state of the economy. And it turns out, he was right. The 1987 crash seems to have been caused by a computer based trading program that got out of control.

By contrast, when we look back on the current economic and stock market downturn, we may see the peak as having taken place in the summer of 2007 -- that is about the same time that the Dow reached its high above 14,000 which took place in October 2007. Unlike in 1987, I would be surprised if that consulting firm's CEO told one of his people to find him stocks to buy after stocks tumbled this month.

In that sense, even though the market suffered much more in October 1987 than it did this month, I would not be surprised if the current market downturn presaged a much more painful economic contraction.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

October 1987 was much worse than October 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 31 Oct 2008 16:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>1987downturnfinancial crisisFinancialCrisisoctober1987stock marketStockMarketFri, 31 Oct 2008 16:50:00 EST<![CDATA[It was an October in which stocks fell over]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/31/it-was-an-october-in-which-stocks-fell-over/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/31/it-was-an-october-in-which-stocks-fell-over/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/10/31/it-was-an-october-in-which-stocks-fell-over/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , ,

Like most married men with a newborn child, economist David H. Wang's nights and weekends are filled with baby care, and diapers galore.

"And telephone calls," Wang said.

Telephone calls?

"Frantic telephone calls from family and friends in China," said Wang, who grew up in China before moving permanently to the states in 1989. "They all want to know, 'should I sell this stock here?' or 'sell this mutual fund?' or 'get out of the market entirely?' Compared to dealing with these calls, baby care is easy."

You can understand why Wang's family and friends may be nervous and seeking his advice. The S&P 500 is on-pace to record its worst monthly point decline ever (but not the worst percentage decline ever), CNNMoney.com reported Friday. As of Thursday's market close, the S&P 500 had fallen 204.8 points this month. Meanwhile, the Dow had dropped 1,669 points, or 15%, as of Thursday's close.

And what were the worst percentage declines ever for S&P 500? You guessed it: the worst occurred during the Great Depression, two years after the stock market crash in 1929: in September 1931, the S&P fell an ugly 29.94%, CNNMoney.com reported.

The second-worst percentage decline? October 1987, when the Black Monday crash occurred: the S&P plunged 21.76%, CNNMoney.com reported.

Global stock markets hammered, as well

Further, this October will also go down in history as one of the worst months for foreign stock markets. The October swoon has added to what can only be diplomatically described as a difficult year for foreign stocks. So far this year, several foreign markets have recorded losses greater than 30%, and many are at multi-year lows, FT.com reported Friday. The Japanese, South Korean and Hong Kong stock markets have all lost half their value this year. European stock markets are down 45% in 2008, including a stunning 40% decline in the U.K.'s FTSE 100, known as the "Footsie 100."

Continue reading It was an October in which stocks fell over

It was an October in which stocks fell over originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 31 Oct 2008 14:44:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>192919311987DJIADowinthenewsNasdaqNYSEFri, 31 Oct 2008 14:44:00 EST<![CDATA[Advisor: Best thing for U.S. markets now would be a 'quick crash']]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/01/23/advisor-best-thing-for-u-s-markets-now-would-be-a-quick-crash/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/01/23/advisor-best-thing-for-u-s-markets-now-would-be-a-quick-crash/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/01/23/advisor-best-thing-for-u-s-markets-now-would-be-a-quick-crash/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Clem Chambers, CEO of stocks/ investment web site ADVFN, argues in an article in Forbes.com that the best thing that could happen to the markets right now would be a quick stock market crash.

Chambers writes: "In many ways, the best thing that could happen now would be a quick crash. A lot of professionals are praying for a so called 'puke' because that would set a bottom for a recovery and signal that the worst is over. A short, sharp shock would be good for everyone. Recovery is better than sickening."

Chambers also notes that the market may very well be in the process of crashing right now, but until there's a period of relative calm or a massive drop, it's too soon to tell. Chambers added that if a crash does happen, it will occur in the next few weeks, and if it doesn't he sees a bear market for an extended period of time (It should also be noted that Chambers' other scenarios for the period ahead, 2008-2010, are a protracted period of volatility or a small/short bear market).

Continue reading Advisor: Best thing for U.S. markets now would be a 'quick crash'

Advisor: Best thing for U.S. markets now would be a 'quick crash' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:09:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>19291980s1987bond marketcrashcredit marketsGDPGreat DepressionNYSErecessionstock marketU.S. CongressU.S. economyU.S. Federal ReserveU.S. TreasuryWed, 23 Jan 2008 17:09:00 EST