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History is repeating itself, at least in the oil market.

Once again, a miscalculation by OPEC -- probably motivated by greed or rational self interest carried to its logical (but foolish) extension -- has resulted in almost the same set of market conditions that resulted when OPEC made the same mistake in 1990-1991.

Then, following the Persian Gulf War in 1990, OPEC increased production only grudgingly, in an attempt to hang onto sky-high oil prices of about $55-60 per barrel. (Or about $120 in today's dollars.) The result? A U.S. recession and a consequent collapse in oil demand, and in oil's price: oil first fell below $40, then $30 on its way to trading below $13 per barrel in 1998. Thirteen dollars a barrel in nineteen ninety-eight.

Those who fail to learn from history...

Fast forward to 2007. OPEC has an opportunity to at least slow, if not reverse the steady rise in oil prices, which were then testing $90. However, despite the fact that oil shocks have preceded every U.S. recession since 1972, except the post-September 11, 2001 recession, OPEC does nothing.

In fact, as the price of oil continued to spiral to dizzier and dizzier heights, OPEC meetings served as information dissemination opportunities to blame the rising price on anything but a lack of increased OPEC production: the weak dollar, geopolitical concerns, investors who view oil as a performing asset, and so on. In fact, what OPEC was doing during this phase of the oil cycle was, yet again, testing the limits of the market: i.e., to determine the maximum price the market could bear, in order to maximize revenue for oil-producing nations. Or, in other words, OPEC members were repeating the mistakes of 1990-1991.

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Once again, OPEC has killed the goose that lays the golden egg originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Dec 2008 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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