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<generator>Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/</generator><item><title><![CDATA[Serious Money: Alcoa (AA) makes some good and bad moves]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/05/serious-money-alcoa-aa-makes-some-good-and-bad-moves/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/05/serious-money-alcoa-aa-makes-some-good-and-bad-moves/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/05/serious-money-alcoa-aa-makes-some-good-and-bad-moves/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/international-markets/" rel="tag">International Markets</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/press-releases/" rel="tag">Press Releases</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/management/" rel="tag">Management</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rants-and-raves/" rel="tag">Rants and Raves</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/competitive-strategy/" rel="tag">Competitive Strategy</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/brk-a/" rel="tag">Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/china/" rel="tag">China</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/aa/" rel="tag">Alcoa Inc (AA)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/serious-money/" rel="tag">Serious Money</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ach/" rel="tag">Aluminum Corp of China ADS (ACH)</a></p><p><img alt="" hspace="4" src="http://www.blogcdn.com/www.bloggingstocks.com/media/2007/10/alcoa.jpg" align="right" vspace="4" border="1" />Today <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/alcoa-inc/aa/nys">Alcoa Inc.</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/alcoa-inc/aa/nys">AA</a>) announced some <a href="http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/alcoa-to-take-charge-closes-in-on-sale/n20071004193209990009">restructuring plans</a> that will trim down (SELL) some under-performing consumer packaging and automotive castings divisions. It will be taking some charges to the tune of $845 million as well, and intends to gear up for expansion into higher margin areas. Alcoa also said it raised cash by selling its 7% stake in Chalco, the <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/aluminum-corp-of-china-chalco/ach/nys">Aluminum Corp China ADS</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/aluminum-corp-of-china-chalco/ach/nys">ACH</a>) and bringing in $2 billion dollars on what was initially a $200 million investment -- <em>"A ten bagger."</em></p>
<p>It is this latter decision that is not smart, and without further explanation from management I have to question selling a winner. If you look at all of the things that Alcoa did in the last 10 years you will find that the Chalco investment was the smartest, and more importantly, the most profitable, thing it has done. For many years Alcoa stock has been adrift. Since it sold the stock it has only gone up further and as I write these words and look at the price now, ACH is trading up over 5% more to $75.70.</p>
<p> </p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/05/serious-money-alcoa-aa-makes-some-good-and-bad-moves/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Serious Money: Alcoa (AA) makes some good and bad moves</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/05/serious-money-alcoa-aa-makes-some-good-and-bad-moves/">Serious Money: Alcoa (AA) makes some good and bad moves</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Fri, 05 Oct 2007 15:30:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href=http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/31/chasing-value-aluminum-company-of-china-driving-me-nuts/>Read</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/05/serious-money-alcoa-aa-makes-some-good-and-bad-moves/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/1006461/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/05/serious-money-alcoa-aa-makes-some-good-and-bad-moves/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>AA</category><category>ACH</category><category>Alcoa Inc (AA)</category><category>AlcoaInc(aa)</category><category>Aluminum</category><category>Aluminum Corp of China ADS (ACH)</category><category>AluminumCorpOfChinaAds(ach)</category><category>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)</category><category>BerkshireHathaway(brk.a)</category><category>Chalco</category><category>Chasing VAlue</category><category>ChasingValue</category><category>China</category><category>Corporate profits</category><category>Corporate restructuring</category><category>CorporateProfits</category><category>CorporateRestructuring</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Value investing</category><category>ValueInvesting</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 05 Oct 2007 15:30:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chasing Value: Is Hershey (HSY) getting sweeter?]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/04/chasing-value-is-hershey-hsy-getting-sweeter/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/04/chasing-value-is-hershey-hsy-getting-sweeter/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/04/chasing-value-is-hershey-hsy-getting-sweeter/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/products-and-services/" rel="tag">Products and Services</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/management/" rel="tag">Management</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/consumer-experience/" rel="tag">Consumer Experience</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/competitive-strategy/" rel="tag">Competitive Strategy</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/brk-a/" rel="tag">Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hsy/" rel="tag">Hershey Co (HSY)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/bargain-stocks/" rel="tag">Bargain Stocks</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/chasing-value/" rel="tag">Chasing Value[TM]</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/stocks-to-buy/" rel="tag">Stocks to Buy</a></p><p><img vspace="4" hspace="4" align="right" src="http://www.blogcdn.com/www.bloggingstocks.com/media/2007/10/hershey.jpg"  alt="" />The <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-hershey-company/hsy/nys">Hershey Co.</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-hershey-company/hsy/nys">HSY</a>), which is the largest U.S. candy maker, is getting a <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&amp;refer=home&amp;sid=aQlK4gMXKokc">new Chief Executive, David West</a>, who is moving over from the COO suite. Shareholders will be anxious to see if this <em>suite</em> move really translates into a <em>sweet </em>move for the stock, which is down for the year about 25% from $56.75, closing near its 52-week low today at $44.50.</p>
<p>I have been watching this stock for a few weeks now as I search out what will be valuable in the coming year -- and then going forward for a lifetime. As "my pal Warren" likes to say, the proper holding period for a stock is "forever." Chocolate is a candidate for sure, and Buffett certainly would have to support this notion since <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/berkshire-hathaway-inc-del/brk.a/nys">Berkshire Hathaway</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/berkshire-hathaway-inc-del/brk.a/nys">BRK.A</a>) owns a premier American Brand in See's Candies.</p>
<p>Chocolate may be as recession-proof as beer and lipstick, so this company is worth looking at as an investment opportunity. When I review the numbers I see both good and bad. To the good, it is paying a 2.56% dividend yield, which does sweeten the pot (OK, I'll stop that). To the bad, it is facing increased prices for sugar, now competing I suppose with the energy sector (ethanol), ironic since chocolate bars are promoted as energy food. Oil seems to have dipped in the past few days but I'm not sure the demand for sugar will.</p>
<p><em></em></p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/04/chasing-value-is-hershey-hsy-getting-sweeter/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Chasing Value: Is Hershey (HSY) getting sweeter?</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/04/chasing-value-is-hershey-hsy-getting-sweeter/">Chasing Value: Is Hershey (HSY) getting sweeter?</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Thu, 04 Oct 2007 09:37:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/04/chasing-value-is-hershey-hsy-getting-sweeter/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/1004500/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/10/04/chasing-value-is-hershey-hsy-getting-sweeter/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)</category><category>BerkshireHathaway(brk.a)</category><category>Chasing Value</category><category>ChasingValue</category><category>Chocolate</category><category>featured</category><category>Hershey Co (HSY)</category><category>HersheyCo(hsy)</category><category>HSY</category><category>See's Candies</category><category>See'sCandies</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Value Stocks</category><category>ValueStocks</category><category>Warren Buffett</category><category>WarrenBuffett</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 04 Oct 2007 09:37:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/08/chasing-2007-picks-thru-july/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/08/chasing-2007-picks-thru-july/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/08/chasing-2007-picks-thru-july/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/international-markets/" rel="tag">International Markets</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/earnings-reports/" rel="tag">Earnings Reports</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/analyst-reports/" rel="tag">Analyst Reports</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/forecasts/" rel="tag">Forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rants-and-raves/" rel="tag">Rants and Raves</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/goog/" rel="tag">Google (GOOG)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/aapl/" rel="tag">Apple Inc (AAPL)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/csco/" rel="tag">Cisco Systems (CSCO)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/twx/" rel="tag">Time Warner (TWX)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hd/" rel="tag">Home Depot (HD)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/china/" rel="tag">China</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/indices/" rel="tag">Indices</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hal/" rel="tag">Halliburton (HAL)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/mo/" rel="tag">Altria Group (MO)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/gs/" rel="tag">Goldman Sachs Group (GS)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/duk/" rel="tag">Duke Energy (DUK)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/dow/" rel="tag">Dow Chemical (DOW)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/vlo/" rel="tag">Valero Energy (VLO)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ptr/" rel="tag">PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hnp/" rel="tag">Huaneng Power Intl ADS (HNP)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/iphone/" rel="tag">iPhone</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/lvlt/" rel="tag">Level 3 Communications (LVLT)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/kft/" rel="tag">Kraft Foods'A' (KFT)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/chasing-value/" rel="tag">Chasing Value[TM]</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/sandp-500/" rel="tag">S and P 500</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/djia/" rel="tag">DJIA</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rad/" rel="tag">Rite Aid Corp (RAD)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/svnt/" rel="tag">Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT)</a></p><p>July started off so promising and ended in the dumps. After the DJIA triumphantly closed above 14,000 it beat a hasty retreat scared off by a tumbling housing market, continued worries about sub-prime loans, record highs in oil prices, continued turmoil in Iraq and perhaps a dose of summer vacation<em>itus.</em> In addition, market darlings Apple and Google exited the month with a few unanswered questions. Nothing could be more telling than people speculating about a Dow 15,000...16,000...17,000 the moment it passed the 14,000 mark. And silly guy that I am...thoughts of repeating my 29% 2006 return entered my mind when I reached a 24% IRR earlier. That no longer looks like a possibility although I'm still doing fine - so far.</p>
<p>The month of July started off about stock picking and finished about stock picking as James Cramer of <a href="http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/morefind/?au=Jim%20Cramer&amp;sec=Jim%20Cramer&amp;site=tsc">TheStreet.com</a> would support. However, among the good picks were plenty of bad ones and anything remotely associated with housing, and sub-prime loans paid a heavy price by month end. Google maintained its leadership but did take a dive after reporting earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore, but then there was news, most of it bad enough to put doubt in investors minds, and the market traded down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major unexpected affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are showing some signs of slowing, but deals are getting done. This is my seventh follow-up report. For reference, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/you-dont-have-to-be-007-to-find-the-best-picks-for-2007/">check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic. <br /></a></p>
<p>Although the DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are giving large cap stocks their due, it has retreated lately. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy, creating opportunity for the multi-national corporations.</p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/08/chasing-2007-picks-thru-july/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/08/chasing-2007-picks-thru-july/">Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/08/chasing-2007-picks-thru-july/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/930974/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/08/08/chasing-2007-picks-thru-july/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock Picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Altria Group (MO)</category><category>AltriaGroup(mo)</category><category>Apple Inc (AAPL)</category><category>AppleInc(aapl)</category><category>China</category><category>Cisco Systems (CSCO)</category><category>CiscoSystems(csco)</category><category>DJIA</category><category>Dow Chemical (DOW)</category><category>DowChemical(dow)</category><category>Duke Energy (DUK)</category><category>DukeEnergy(duk)</category><category>Goldman Sachs Group (GS)</category><category>GoldmanSachsGroup(gs)</category><category>Google (GOOG)</category><category>Google(goog)</category><category>Halliburton (HAL)</category><category>Halliburton(hal)</category><category>Home Depot (HD)</category><category>HomeDepot(hd)</category><category>Huaneng Power Intl ADS (HNP)</category><category>HuanengPowerIntlAds(hnp)</category><category>Kraft Foods'A' (KFT)</category><category>KraftFoods'a'(kft)</category><category>Level 3 Communications (LVLT)</category><category>Level3Communications(lvlt)</category><category>PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)</category><category>PetrochinaCoLtdAdr(ptr)</category><category>Time Warner (TWX)</category><category>TimeWarner(twx)</category><category>Valero Energy (VLO)</category><category>ValeroEnergy(vlo)</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow - IBM, JNJ, JPM, MCD &amp; MRK: Part 5]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/05/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-ibm-jnj-jpm-mcd-and/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/05/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-ibm-jnj-jpm-mcd-and/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/05/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-ibm-jnj-jpm-mcd-and/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/indices/" rel="tag">Indices</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/mcd/" rel="tag">McDonald's (MCD)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ibm/" rel="tag">International Business Machines (IBM)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/jnj/" rel="tag">Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/jpm/" rel="tag">JPMorgan Chase (JPM)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/mrk/" rel="tag">Merck and Co (MRK)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/serious-money/" rel="tag">Serious Money</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/djia/" rel="tag">DJIA</a></p><p>After reviewing two thirds of the thirty Dow Jones Industrials, I am surprised to find as much opportunity as I have and as there appears to be. I did not start out expecting to find much value, if at all, in the Dow. Yet, out of the nineteen stocks I've covered in the first four parts, I've found six possibilities in total ... and I still have eleven stocks to go. </p>
<p>Here are the value plays so far: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/alcoa-inc/aa/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">Alcoa Aluminum</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/alcoa-inc/aa/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">AA</a>), <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/american-international-group-inc/aig/nys">American International Group</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/american-international-group-inc/aig/nys">AIG</a>), <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/caterpillar-inc/cat/nys?freq=1">Caterpillar Inc.</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/caterpillar-inc/cat/nys?freq=1">CAT</a>), <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-walt-disney-company/dis/nys">Disney (Walt) Company</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-walt-disney-company/dis/nys">DIS</a>), and <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/exxon-mobil-corporation/xom/nys">Exxon Mobil</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/exxon-mobil-corporation/xom/nys">XOM</a>) and <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-home-depot-inc/hd/nys?dr=24&amp;tabs=quotesandnews">Home Depot</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-home-depot-inc/hd/nys?dr=24&amp;tabs=quotesandnews">HD</a>). You can link to <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/29/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-mmm-aa-mo-axp-and-t/">Part 1 of this series</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/30/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-t-ba-cat-c-and-ko/">Part 2</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/31/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-dis-dd-xom-and/">Part 3</a> or <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/01/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-gm-hpq-hd-hon-and/">Part 4</a> for your own review and comments. Stocks 20 through 24 follow.</p>
<p><a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/international-business-machines-corporation/ibm/nys"><strong>International Business Machines</strong></a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/international-business-machines-corporation/ibm/nys"><strong>IBM</strong></a>) has been making some good moves lately and Wall Street has been reacting favorably. I have owned IBM shares several years ago and sold for a modest gain. The stock has been asleep for years and it looks fairly valued to me now. Very little of the data points I see stand out: IBM has an average P/E of 17.5, a lower than average yield of 1.5%. It does clear a good, not great, profit margin of 10.38%. The thing that looks most favorable about IBM, though, is its ROE, which is 30.25 (TTM) and far exceeds the P/E -- this has been a good indicator for me in the past. I would think most of its growth will be overseas but I do not see IBM moving at any faster rate than the index itself. There are many on Wall Street who disagree, pegging IBM as high as $175 per share in a few years based on its focus on higher margin software sales and service contracts, but I'd rather buy the index over the stock.</p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/05/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-ibm-jnj-jpm-mcd-and/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow - IBM, JNJ, JPM, MCD &amp; MRK: Part 5</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/05/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-ibm-jnj-jpm-mcd-and/">Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow - IBM, JNJ, JPM, MCD &amp; MRK: Part 5</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Tue, 05 Jun 2007 11:47:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/05/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-ibm-jnj-jpm-mcd-and/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/905293/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/05/serious-money-whittling-away-at-the-dow-ibm-jnj-jpm-mcd-and/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>ibm</category><category>International Business Machines (IBM)</category><category>InternationalBusinessMachines(ibm)</category><category>jnj</category><category>jpm</category><category>JPMorgan Chase (JPM)</category><category>JpmorganChase(jpm)</category><category>mcd</category><category>McDonald's (MCD)</category><category>Mcdonald's(mcd)</category><category>Merck (MRK)</category><category>Merck(mrk)</category><category>mrk</category><category>Serious Money</category><category>SeriousMoney</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>value investing</category><category>ValueInvesting</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 05 Jun 2007 11:47:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chasing Value: Aluminum Co. of China driving me nuts]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/31/chasing-value-aluminum-company-of-china-driving-me-nuts/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/31/chasing-value-aluminum-company-of-china-driving-me-nuts/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/31/chasing-value-aluminum-company-of-china-driving-me-nuts/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/major-movement/" rel="tag">Major Movement</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/china/" rel="tag">China</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/commodities/" rel="tag">Commodities</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ach/" rel="tag">Aluminum Corp of China ADS (ACH)</a></p><p>This is a follow-up on one of my favorite companies. By any measure I can come up with, the <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/aluminum-corp-of-china-ads/ach/nys">Aluminum Company of China Ltd. (ADS)</a> (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/aluminum-corp-of-china-ads/ach/nys">ACH</a>) -- sometimes referred to as Chalco -- is one of the best stock buying opportunities on planet earth, short of having insider information and not getting caught. The numbers are so good that it is driving me nuts trying to figure out how this or any company could be so under-valued. I already own it and advised my readers to jump in at $22 about two months ago (see <a title="View Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS on BloggingStocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/03/chasing-value-aluminum-corporation-of-china-ads/" target="_blank"><font color="#55629b">Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS</font></a>). Those that did have seen over 50% growth in eight weeks. Not bad!</p>
<p>Well, I would like to buy more but there has not been much of a dip. When it went to $26 per share I thought I would buy more if it dipped to $24. You know the drill . . . it keeps staying just out of my reach because I want a deal, I want deep value. So yesterday it closed at $32.93 after reaching a high of just over $35 earlier in the month. So is now the right time?</p>
<p>I keep asking myself what is wrong with this picture? What is it that I do not see? If I buy more of this stock am I going to get broadsided by some accounting scandal? Have they been cooking the books? It is just not possible to be so cheap. When I was crowing about it before I thought it was a screaming steal at $22.98 and I was right. But looking at it today, it still seems like it is.</p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/31/chasing-value-aluminum-company-of-china-driving-me-nuts/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Chasing Value: Aluminum Co. of China driving me nuts</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/31/chasing-value-aluminum-company-of-china-driving-me-nuts/">Chasing Value: Aluminum Co. of China driving me nuts</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Thu, 31 May 2007 11:25:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/31/chasing-value-aluminum-company-of-china-driving-me-nuts/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/891268/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/31/chasing-value-aluminum-company-of-china-driving-me-nuts/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>ACH</category><category>Aluminum</category><category>Aluminum Corp of China ADS (ACH)</category><category>AluminumCorpOfChinaAds(ach)</category><category>China</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Value Investing</category><category>ValueInvesting</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 31 May 2007 11:25:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Serious Money: Buffett should buy these five companies]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/09/serious-money-buffett-should-buy-these-5-companies/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/09/serious-money-buffett-should-buy-these-5-companies/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/09/serious-money-buffett-should-buy-these-5-companies/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/brk-a/" rel="tag">Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/all/" rel="tag">Allstate Corp (ALL)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hrb/" rel="tag">H and R Block (HRB)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/fo/" rel="tag">Fortune Brands (FO)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/nue/" rel="tag">Nucor Corp (NUE)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/serious-money/" rel="tag">Serious Money</a></p><p>Warren Buffett<strong>,</strong> Chairman and CEO of <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/berkshire-hathaway-de-cl-a/brk.a/nys">Berkshire Hathaway</a> (NYSE:<strong> </strong><a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/berkshire-hathaway-de-cl-a/brk.a/nys">BRK.A</a>) has been doing some big time <a href="http://www.thefreedictionary.com/cogitation">cogitating</a> about the future. He plans to donate the lion's share of his wealth to the <a href="http://www.gatesfoundation.org/default.htm">Gates Foundation</a>. Recently, he said he was looking for an understudy with the right investing temperament and wisdom to lead Berkshire. There are reports that his office has been swamped with resumes. Some are reaching to the bottom of the barrel in suggesting that I seek an audience. Perhaps they were stimulated by another <a title="View Serious Money: Freight Railroads - BNI, CSX, UNP &amp; more on BloggingStocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/06/serious-money-freight-railroads-bni-csx-unp-and-more/" target="_blank"><font color="#55629b">Serious Money: Freight Railroads - BNI, CSX, UNP &amp; more</font></a> story which I posted the day before Berkshire Hathaway announced it had become BNI's largest shareholder.</p>
<p>So with this and other <a href="http://www.thefreedictionary.com/prescient">prescient</a> commentary I recently posted, I was asked to present some ideas on what acquisitions Berkshire might consider given Buffett's eagerness to find a good deal. It is likely that Buffett will bring several people on board to play the role of Chief Investment Officer for different segments of the company. Nobody in their right mind believes that Buffett is replaceable. </p>
<p>In any event here are some of my ideas on the subject. All of my ideas follow a pattern favored by Buffett including low P/E, P/S, P/B, and P/CF's, as well as a high return on equity and low debt.</p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/09/serious-money-buffett-should-buy-these-5-companies/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Serious Money: Buffett should buy these five companies</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/09/serious-money-buffett-should-buy-these-5-companies/">Serious Money: Buffett should buy these five companies</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Wed, 09 May 2007 16:30:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/09/serious-money-buffett-should-buy-these-5-companies/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/891649/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/05/09/serious-money-buffett-should-buy-these-5-companies/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Allstate Corp (ALL)</category><category>AllstateCorp(all)</category><category>Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)</category><category>BerkshireHathaway(brk.a)</category><category>Fortune Brands (FO)</category><category>FortuneBrands(fo)</category><category>great companies</category><category>GreatCompanies</category><category>H and R Block (HRB)</category><category>HAndRBlock(hrb)</category><category>Nucor Corp (NUE)</category><category>NucorCorp(nue)</category><category>Serious Money</category><category>SeriousMoney</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>stock picking</category><category>StockPicking</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 09 May 2007 16:30:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chasing Value: InfoUSA: Low share price for the kids]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/18/chasing-value-infousa-low-share-price-for-the-kids/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/18/chasing-value-infousa-low-share-price-for-the-kids/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/18/chasing-value-infousa-low-share-price-for-the-kids/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/other-issues/" rel="tag">Other Issues</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/deals/" rel="tag">Deals</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/goog/" rel="tag">Google (GOOG)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/columns/" rel="tag">Columns</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/iaci/" rel="tag">IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/chasing-value/" rel="tag">Chasing Value[TM]</a></p><p>The luckier I get in my stock picking the more people imagine I have some inside information. Not so, just a lot of effort and study of what works over the long haul. On Monday I wrote <a title="View Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing on BloggingStocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/17/chasing-value-bear-stearns-cheap-and-growing/" target="_blank"><font color="#55629b">Chasing Value: Bear Stearns - cheap and growing</font></a> and afterward in discussing the post with colleagues it occurred to me that Bear Stearns at $154 per share was a bit steep for investors with less capital or people wanting to invest for kids. So I decided to take a look at something easier to swallow.</p>
<p>I ran a stock screen with some very basic criteria and came up with 29 companies. I took out the financial institutions, and the riskier stocks and came up with three possibilities using the following criteria ranges:</p>
<ul>
    <li>Price range: $5 to 15 </li>
    <li>Price/Sales: 1.0 to 2.0 </li>
    <li>Price/Book: 0.0 to 4.0 </li>
    <li>Yield: 1% to 3% </li>
    <li>P/E Ratio: 10 to 25 </li>
</ul><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/18/chasing-value-infousa-low-share-price-for-the-kids/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Chasing Value: InfoUSA: Low share price for the kids</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/18/chasing-value-infousa-low-share-price-for-the-kids/">Chasing Value: InfoUSA: Low share price for the kids</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Wed, 18 Apr 2007 16:00:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/18/chasing-value-infousa-low-share-price-for-the-kids/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/876416/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/18/chasing-value-infousa-low-share-price-for-the-kids/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock Picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>AOL</category><category>Google (GOOG)</category><category>Google(goog)</category><category>IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI)</category><category>Iac/interactivecorp(iaci)</category><category>InfoUSA (IUSA)</category><category>Infousa(iusa)</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Value investing</category><category>ValueInvesting</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2007 16:00:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chasing Value: Duke Energy (DUK)]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/chasing-value-duke-energy-duk/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/chasing-value-duke-energy-duk/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/chasing-value-duke-energy-duk/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/jnj/" rel="tag">Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/duk/" rel="tag">Duke Energy (DUK)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/chasing-value/" rel="tag">Chasing Value[TM]</a></p><p>How can you do better than a current <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/duke-enrgy-corp-hlding-co/duk/nys/fundamentals?freq=1">price-to-book (P/B)</a> value of less than 1.0? <em>You can throw in a dividend yield of 4% that's how!</em> <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/duke-enrgy-corp-hlding-co/duk/nys/profile?freq=1">Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK)</a> has been rewarding investors for many years and is likely to continue to do so. Last year it had negative growth which may account for the equally negative sentiment that created this bargain but for value investors I do not see anything but prosperity ahead. You can find it in <a title="View Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops on BloggingStocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/02/chasing-down-007-picks-q1-is-done-valero-is-tops/" target="_blank">Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops</a> and the original review <a title="View Duke Energy: Vote for this boring stock for 2007 on BloggingStocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/duke-energy-vote-for-this-boring-stock-for-2007/" target="_blank">Duke Energy: Vote for this boring stock for 2007</a>.</p>
<p>DUK's closing stock price Tuesday, April 10, 2007 was $20.83. It has a reasonable P/E ratio and a higher than average dividend yield. </p>
<ul>
    <li>Dividend Yield:<strong> 4.04%</strong> </li>
    <li>Price-to-earnings ratio - P/E:<strong> 11.94</strong> </li>
</ul>
<p>The P/S, P/B and P/CF are amazing - <em>do you see what I see Warren?</em></p>
<ul>
    <li>Price-to-sales ratio P/S:<strong> 1.59</strong> </li>
    <li>Price-to-book ratio - P/B: <strong>0.98</strong> </li>
    <li>Price-to-cash-flow - P/CF:<strong> 8.16</strong> </li>
</ul>
<p>The return-on-equity (ROE), return-on-assets (ROA), and return-on-invested capital (ROIC) are nothing special and reflect the down year they are coming out of, but the profit margin of <strong>11.24%</strong> is very good and consistent.</p>
<p><strong>Warren Buffett has said that you should invest in stocks as if you were buying a business.</strong> Would I want to own this business - <em>absolutely!</em> However, it is capitalized at just over $26 billion so I would come up a bit shy. I am likely to add to my current shares from time to time.</p>
<p>It also makes sense for those seeking a "defensive" stock to anchor your portfolio into retirement - just like I said about <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/06/chasing-value-johnson-and-johnson/">Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)</a> last week. And the two would be a great start to a new portfolio.</p>
<p><em><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/05/24/about-the-stock-bloggers-sheldon-d-liber-aia/"><em><strong>Sheldon Liber</strong></em></a><em> is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture &amp; planning firm. </em></em><em>Check out his other posts for<strong> BloggingStocks </strong></em><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/bloggers/sheldon-liber/"><em><strong>here</strong></em></a><em><strong>.</strong></em> </p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/chasing-value-duke-energy-duk/">Chasing Value: Duke Energy (DUK)</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Wed, 11 Apr 2007 13:55:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/chasing-value-duke-energy-duk/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/868731/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/chasing-value-duke-energy-duk/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Chasing Value</category><category>ChasingValue</category><category>Duke Energy (DUK)</category><category>DukeEnergy(duk)</category><category>Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)_</category><category>JohnsonAndJohnson(jnj)_</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Warren Buffett</category><category>WarrenBuffett</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 11 Apr 2007 13:55:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[With Warren Buffett by my side . . .]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/09/with-warren-buffett-by-my-side/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/09/with-warren-buffett-by-my-side/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/09/with-warren-buffett-by-my-side/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/forecasts/" rel="tag">Forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/good-news/" rel="tag">Good news</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rumors/" rel="tag">Rumors</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/press-releases/" rel="tag">Press Releases</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/marketmatters/" rel="tag">Market Matters</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/gettingstarted/" rel="tag">Getting Started</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/define/" rel="tag">Define Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/dow/" rel="tag">Dow Chemical (DOW)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/bargain-stocks/" rel="tag">Bargain Stocks</a></p><p>All I can say is if you want to improve at something seek out the best advice you can get and try to follow it. If I was studying golf and Tiger Woods was willing to coach me, that would be the best opportunity I could hope for. If I wanted to improve my jump shot and Kobe Bryant had some spare time to work with me, that would be fantastic.</p>
<p>Well, guess what, if you are an investor there is a wealth of information available, and you can learn from the best. <em><strong>The best is Warren Buffett and you should do what he does.</strong></em> That is what I have been trying to do. I have been discussing Buffett in many of my stories and reminding people that he is the master and if you are doing anything else you are missing the point. Sure Smush Parker is also a starting guard for the Los Angeles Lakers, and that is amazing because the odds of being a starting guard in the NBA are astronomically small, but I would rather learn from Kobe.</p>
<p>So you can quote anybody you want and search far and wide for opportunities, but if you consider yourself a shrewd investor and are not studying Buffett you are making a mistake.</p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/09/with-warren-buffett-by-my-side/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>With Warren Buffett by my side . . .</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/09/with-warren-buffett-by-my-side/">With Warren Buffett by my side . . .</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Mon, 09 Apr 2007 11:52:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href=http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/08/warren-buffett-hits-the-rails/>Read</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/09/with-warren-buffett-by-my-side/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/870240/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/09/with-warren-buffett-by-my-side/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>BNI</category><category>CSX</category><category>dow</category><category>Dow Chemical (DOW)</category><category>DowChemical(dow)</category><category>NSC</category><category>Railroad stocks</category><category>RailroadStocks</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Value Investing</category><category>ValueInvesting</category><category>Warren Buffett</category><category>WarrenBuffett</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 09 Apr 2007 11:52:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/02/chasing-down-007-picks-q1-is-done-valero-is-tops/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/02/chasing-down-007-picks-q1-is-done-valero-is-tops/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/02/chasing-down-007-picks-q1-is-done-valero-is-tops/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/after-the-bell/" rel="tag">After the Bell</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/forecasts/" rel="tag">Forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/blogs/" rel="tag">Blogs</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/competitive-strategy/" rel="tag">Competitive Strategy</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/goog/" rel="tag">Google (GOOG)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/aapl/" rel="tag">Apple Inc (AAPL)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/csco/" rel="tag">Cisco Systems (CSCO)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/twx/" rel="tag">Time Warner (TWX)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hd/" rel="tag">Home Depot (HD)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hal/" rel="tag">Halliburton (HAL)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/mo/" rel="tag">Altria Group (MO)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/nyx/" rel="tag">NYSE Euronext (NYX)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/gs/" rel="tag">Goldman Sachs Group (GS)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/duk/" rel="tag">Duke Energy (DUK)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/dow/" rel="tag">Dow Chemical (DOW)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/vlo/" rel="tag">Valero Energy (VLO)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ptr/" rel="tag">PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hnp/" rel="tag">Huaneng Power Intl ADS (HNP)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/lvlt/" rel="tag">Level 3 Communications (LVLT)</a></p><p>This is an update through March 30, 2007 bringing the first quarter to a close. Earnings season is now upon us. It is my third follow-up report. Three months is a short time in the market for long term investors, and an eternity for a day trader. If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see:<em> </em><a title="View You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007! on Blogging Stocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/you-dont-have-to-be-007-to-find-the-best-picks-for-2007/" target="_blank"><font color="#55629b">You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!</font></a><em>.</em></p>
<p><strong>Summary of Results:</strong></p>
<ul>
    <li>James <strong>Cramer's average</strong> return on his 9 picks was 2% after two months but now stands at: <strong>+2.82% an improvement</strong>. Adding the dividend portion (.66 x .25) of 0.165 brings Cramer's gain to <strong>2.99%</strong>. Last month it was his speculative stocks that supported his gains. This month they pulled back and his gains came from his best pick so far, <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/apple-inc/aapl/nas">Apple Inc.</a> (NASDAQ:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/apple-inc/aapl/nas">AAPL</a>)  </li>
    <li>
    <div>The <strong>Indexes remained slightly </strong>negative, the DJIA leading the way south: <strong>-1.2%</strong>. Adding it's portion of the dividend yield (1.8 x .25) of .45 brings it up to a gain of <strong>0.85</strong> for the quarter.</div>
    </li>
    <li>
    <div><strong>My picks</strong> are down for the year, but improved from -1.9% last month, to a negative of -<strong>0.61%</strong> for the quarter. Adding the dividend portion of (3 x .25) of .75 brings my quarter to a slight gain of <strong>0.14%</strong> which is negligible. My picks are the most volatile now with super gains over 25% from <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/valero-energy-corporation/vlo/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">Valero Energy</a> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/valero-energy-corporation/vlo/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">VLO</a>) and super losses from <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/petrochina-company-limited/ptr/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">PetroChina Co</a>. (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/petrochina-company-limited/ptr/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">PTR</a>) which was at an all-time high when I mentioned it. Both companies are in the same industry, but PetroChina's profits are more closely regulated. </div>
    </li>
    <li><strong><a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/google-inc-cl-a/goog/nas?tabs=quotesandnews">Google </a>(NASDAQ:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/google-inc-cl-a/goog/nas?tabs=quotesandnews">GOOG</a>)</strong> provided an +8.1% return in January, slipped to -2.9% in February and YTD has moved up for a smaller loss: <strong>-1.0%</strong> Although it has been an erratic three months Google has managed to float within a tighter range lately. </li>
</ul>
<p>Not much change since last month. Since the quarter has concluded I added one quarter of the the <strong>dividends</strong> to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results. Only 3 of Cramer's picks pay dividends averaging about .66%; the Indexes pay a higher average of 1.8%; my picks average still higher at about 3%; and Google does not pay a dividend. The flatter the market is this year the more the dividends will be a factor.</p>
<p>I still remain very comfortable with my stock picks and believe this year will prove to be a "Tortoise and Hare" story. It is my belief that <em>'Value' </em>will beat <em>'Growth'</em> and <em>'Indexing'</em> over the long run. <em>Google is a wild card!</em> Two of my picks continue to be mentioned as buyout candidates; <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-dow-chemical-company/dow/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">Dow Chemical Co</a>. (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-dow-chemical-company/dow/nys?tabs=quotesandnews"> DOW</a>) and <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-home-depot-inc/hd/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">Home Depot</a> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-home-depot-inc/hd/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">HD</a>). Home Depot is receiving the most negative discussion in business circles these days but I see it as becoming a greater value at the lower price.</p>
<p><strong>The following are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 and three month returns for the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/duke-enrgy-corp-hlding-co/duk/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">Duke Energy</a> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/duke-enrgy-corp-hlding-co/duk/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">DUK</a>).</strong></p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/02/chasing-down-007-picks-q1-is-done-valero-is-tops/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/02/chasing-down-007-picks-q1-is-done-valero-is-tops/">Chasing down 007 picks: Q1 is done - Valero is tops</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Mon, 02 Apr 2007 14:00:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/02/chasing-down-007-picks-q1-is-done-valero-is-tops/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/864250/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/02/chasing-down-007-picks-q1-is-done-valero-is-tops/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Altria Group (MO)</category><category>AltriaGroup(mo)</category><category>Apple Inc (AAPL)</category><category>AppleInc(aapl)</category><category>Cisco Systems (CSCO)</category><category>CiscoSystems(csco)</category><category>Dow Chemical (DOW)</category><category>DowChemical(dow)</category><category>Duke Energy (DUK)</category><category>DukeEnergy(duk)</category><category>Goldman Sachs Group (GS)</category><category>GoldmanSachsGroup(gs)</category><category>Google (GOOG)</category><category>Google(goog)</category><category>Halliburton (HAL)</category><category>Halliburton(hal)</category><category>Home Depot (HD)</category><category>HomeDepot(hd)</category><category>Huaneng Power Intl ADS (HNP)</category><category>HuanengPowerIntlAds(hnp)</category><category>James Cramer</category><category>JamesCramer</category><category>Level 3 Communications (LVLT)</category><category>Level3Communications(lvlt)</category><category>NYSE Group (NYX)</category><category>NyseGroup(nyx)</category><category>PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)</category><category>PetrochinaCoLtdAdr(ptr)</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Time Warner (TWX)</category><category>TimeWarner(twx)</category><category>Valero Energy (VLO)</category><category>ValeroEnergy(vlo)</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 02 Apr 2007 14:00:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge &amp; more]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/20/chasing-value-anglo-american-inflation-hedge-and-more/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/20/chasing-value-anglo-american-inflation-hedge-and-more/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/20/chasing-value-anglo-american-inflation-hedge-and-more/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/international-markets/" rel="tag">International Markets</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rants-and-raves/" rel="tag">Rants and Raves</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/columns/" rel="tag">Columns</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/wm/" rel="tag">Washington Mutual (WM)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/apc/" rel="tag">Anadarko Petroleum (APC)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/wfc/" rel="tag">Wells Fargo (WFC)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/bargain-stocks/" rel="tag">Bargain Stocks</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/chasing-value/" rel="tag">Chasing Value[TM]</a></p><p>Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/anglo-american-plc-american-depositary-shares-exempt-pursuant-to-12g3-2-b/aauk/nas/profile?freq=1">AAUK</a>) is really a United Kingdom based company with no American history, although a long history it has. We are continuing our search for value stocks as we very methodically place new money in the market. Our first purchase was an old favorite: Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/washington-mutual-inc/wm/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">WM</a>). We recently acquired it at $40 per share after following it down from $47. Yesterday, Georges Yared posted <a title="View Washington Mutual: A ridiculously cheap pick in sub-prime panic on BloggingStocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/19/washington-mutual-a-ridiculously-cheap-pick-in-sub-prime-panic/" target="_blank">Washington Mutual: A ridiculously cheap pick in sub-prime panic</a> and we agree with him totally....take a look at the depressed price, the 5.3% yield and more.</p>
<p>We like the Anglo American company and the stock for numerous reasons. It came to our attention initially because it has a 1.17 price-to-sales ratio (P/S), a price-to-book ratio of 1.29 (P/B), and a yield over 2%. To go along with those metrics it has been growing at 15% to 20% over the last few years as the world demand for gold and platinum has increased. You can check out the fundamentals at <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/anglo-american-plc-american-depositary-shares-exempt-pursuant-to-12g3-2-b/aauk/nas/profile?freq=1">AOL Money &amp; Finance</a> as a starting point for your own research if you are interested. <br /></p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/20/chasing-value-anglo-american-inflation-hedge-and-more/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge &amp; more</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/20/chasing-value-anglo-american-inflation-hedge-and-more/">Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge &amp; more</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Tue, 20 Mar 2007 18:45:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/20/chasing-value-anglo-american-inflation-hedge-and-more/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/856647/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/20/chasing-value-anglo-american-inflation-hedge-and-more/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock Picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Anadarko Petroleum (APC)</category><category>AnadarkoPetroleum(apc)</category><category>Anglo American (AAUK)</category><category>AngloAmerican(aauk)</category><category>Chasing Value</category><category>ChasingValue</category><category>Growth Stocks</category><category>GrowthStocks</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Value Stocks</category><category>ValueStocks</category><category>Washington Mutual (WM)</category><category>WashingtonMutual(wm)</category><category>Wells Fargo (WFC)</category><category>WellsFargo(wfc)</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 20 Mar 2007 18:45:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Valero: What goes up keeps going up?!]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/14/valero-what-goes-up-keeps-going-up/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/14/valero-what-goes-up-keeps-going-up/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/14/valero-what-goes-up-keeps-going-up/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/good-news/" rel="tag">Good news</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/blogs/" rel="tag">Blogs</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rants-and-raves/" rel="tag">Rants and Raves</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/competitive-strategy/" rel="tag">Competitive Strategy</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/columns/" rel="tag">Columns</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/vlo/" rel="tag">Valero Energy (VLO)</a></p><p>Terrible market not hurting Valero Energy (NYSE: <a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/valero-energy-corporation/vlo/nys/fundamentals?freq=1">VLO</a>) stock....looks bullet proof for now. Almost everything is going down but not Valero and even more interesting it still has very strong fundamentals after a 20% run-up this year. I own Valero and find that the story is still compelling. I may even buy more. As I write this post, the market is down and Valero is up.</p>
<p>Last month when I wrote <a title="View Valero - everyone jumping on the bandwagon on Blogging Stocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/02/07/valero-everyone-jumping-on-the-bandwagon/" target="_blank"><font color="#55629b">Valero - everyone jumping on the bandwagon</font></a> I was marveling about how this company seemed to be the darling of so many that it made me self-conscious to be part of the group. However, I had pegged VLO in my stock picks for 2007 months earlier: <a title="View Valero Energy: Unbelievable value for 2007 on Blogging Stocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/valero-energy-unbelievable-value-for-2007/" target="_blank">Valero Energy: Unbelievable value for 2007</a>.</p>
<br />
<p> </p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/14/valero-what-goes-up-keeps-going-up/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Valero: What goes up keeps going up?!</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/14/valero-what-goes-up-keeps-going-up/">Valero: What goes up keeps going up?!</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Wed, 14 Mar 2007 18:40:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/14/valero-what-goes-up-keeps-going-up/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/852636/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/14/valero-what-goes-up-keeps-going-up/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock Picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Sheldn Liber</category><category>SheldnLiber</category><category>Valero Energy (VLO)</category><category>ValeroEnergy(vlo)</category><category>Value Investing</category><category>ValueInvesting</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 14 Mar 2007 18:40:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Fear in the market - opportunity knocks!]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/08/fear-in-the-market-opportunity-knocks/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/08/fear-in-the-market-opportunity-knocks/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/08/fear-in-the-market-opportunity-knocks/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/major-movement/" rel="tag">Major Movement</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/international-markets/" rel="tag">International Markets</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/forecasts/" rel="tag">Forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rants-and-raves/" rel="tag">Rants and Raves</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/china/" rel="tag">China</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/columns/" rel="tag">Columns</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/bargain-stocks/" rel="tag">Bargain Stocks</a></p><p>Since the China meltdown last week; and all the turbulence in world markets; and Greenspan and Bernanke comments; and this weeks recovery of half the losses ... I came back to my terminal after taking a break for a couple of days to find good news.</p>
<p>Since my post <a title="View Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS on Blogging Stocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/03/chasing-value-aluminum-corporation-of-china-ads/" target="_blank"><strong>Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS</strong></a> last week, (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/aluminum-corporation-of-china-limited/ach/nys">ACH)</a> has continued to recover and is now up considerably. Having a buy order in at a 20% discount to a bargain, execute, and go up after scooping me up and keep on going in a positive direction is delightful. REALITY CHECK: <em>Yes It could dive again just as fast!</em></p>
<p>But there is a lesson here. <em>Investors that do their own stock picking must <strong>have a watch list, be patient</strong>, and be willing to act on their predetermined evaluation no matter what dumb things happen in the market</em>. ACH was a bargain at approximately $27 per share but I do not feel comfortable buying when a stock is at an all-time high. However, at $22 my buy order triggered and I picked up a bargain that closed today at $24.35. If I was a stock trader I would take my 11% profit in 4 days and run. As a buy-and-hold guy I'm keeping this one for the long haul. ACH has a 5.4% yield with a P/E of 8.4. If the stock goes nowhere the rest of the year. I will have a 16.4% return -- very nice, but I see the demand for aluminum in China continuing to increase for the next few decades and this stock as one of my best picks ever.</p>
<p>Read the story and check it out for yourself. Peace to all.</p>
<p>Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/bloggers/sheldon-liber/">here</a>.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/05/24/about-the-stock-bloggers-sheldon-d-liber-aia/"><em>Sheldon Liber</em></a><em> is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture &amp; planning firm. </em></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/08/fear-in-the-market-opportunity-knocks/">Fear in the market - opportunity knocks!</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Thu, 08 Mar 2007 18:40:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/08/fear-in-the-market-opportunity-knocks/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/848710/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/08/fear-in-the-market-opportunity-knocks/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH)</category><category>AluminumCorp.OfChina(ach)</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Value investing</category><category>ValueInvesting</category><category>Watch list</category><category>WatchList</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 08 Mar 2007 18:40:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Chasing down 007 picks: January results - Cramer wins]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/02/02/chasing-down-007-picks-january-results-cramer-wins/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/02/02/chasing-down-007-picks-january-results-cramer-wins/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/02/02/chasing-down-007-picks-january-results-cramer-wins/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/analyst-reports/" rel="tag">Analyst Reports</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/forecasts/" rel="tag">Forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/twx/" rel="tag">Time Warner (TWX)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hd/" rel="tag">Home Depot (HD)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/marketmatters/" rel="tag">Market Matters</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/gettingstarted/" rel="tag">Getting Started</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/columns/" rel="tag">Columns</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/duk/" rel="tag">Duke Energy (DUK)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/dow/" rel="tag">Dow Chemical (DOW)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/vlo/" rel="tag">Valero Energy (VLO)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ptr/" rel="tag">PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hnp/" rel="tag">Huaneng Power Intl ADS (HNP)</a></p><p>So January 2007 is already history and this is my first follow-up report. I recognize that from an investment perspective it is almost meaningless to gain any insight into the quality of my stock selections after only one month. </p>
<p>In truth, even a year is an arbitrary length of time to know anything for sure. On one occasion <em>I sold Boeing</em> (NYSE: BA) after holding it about 18 months, shortly <em>before</em> its rise, when its new CEO exercised some ethically and morally 'poor secretarial judgment'. Then I watched the stock double in quick order.</p>
<p>If you want to refer to the original article from December 28, 2006 see:<em> </em><a title="View You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007! on Blogging Stocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/you-dont-have-to-be-007-to-find-the-best-picks-for-2007/" target="_blank"><font color="#55629b">You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!</font></a><em>.</em></p>
<p><strong>Summary of Results:</strong></p>
<ul>
    <li>Google provided an 8.1% return heading into reporting season. It has since slipped. </li>
    <li>James Cramer's average return on his 9 picks was 5.86% which was very good. There might be some Cramer bump but if there is it will fade and for now he has done great. </li>
    <li>The Indexes were all in positive territory. </li>
    <li>Liber return was slightly negative for January -0.55% held down by my inclusion of PetroChina. I cautioned about buying this stock at close to an all time high. However, for the purposes of this story I used that number as my starting point and believe it will be up this year. </li>
</ul>
<p>After each quarter I will be adding the dividend yields to the results. This is one of the criteria I used in my stock picks and will have an impact on the final results.</p>
<p><strong>Here are the closing prices as of December 28, 2006 of the seven stocks I recommended plus the addition of Spectra Energy that was spun out of Duke:</strong></p><p><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/02/02/chasing-down-007-picks-january-results-cramer-wins/" rel="bookmark">Continue reading <em>Chasing down 007 picks: January results - Cramer wins</em></a></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/02/02/chasing-down-007-picks-january-results-cramer-wins/">Chasing down 007 picks: January results - Cramer wins</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Fri, 02 Feb 2007 17:52:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/02/02/chasing-down-007-picks-january-results-cramer-wins/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/728252/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/02/02/chasing-down-007-picks-january-results-cramer-wins/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock Picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Dividends</category><category>Dow Chemical (DOW)</category><category>DowChemical(dow)</category><category>Duke Energy (DUK)</category><category>DukeEnergy(duk)</category><category>Google (GOOG)</category><category>Google(goog)</category><category>Home Depot (HD)</category><category>HomeDepot(hd)</category><category>Huaneng Power Intl ADS (HNP)</category><category>HuanengPowerIntlAds(hnp)</category><category>James Cramer</category><category>JamesCramer</category><category>PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)</category><category>PetrochinaCoLtdAdr(ptr)</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Time Warner (TWX)</category><category>TimeWarner(twx)</category><category>Valero Energy (VLO)</category><category>ValeroEnergy(vlo)</category><category>value investing</category><category>ValueInvesting</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 02 Feb 2007 17:52:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Falling in love with PetroChina may cost me]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/24/falling-in-love-with-petrochina-may-cost-me/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/24/falling-in-love-with-petrochina-may-cost-me/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/24/falling-in-love-with-petrochina-may-cost-me/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/major-movement/" rel="tag">Major Movement</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/forecasts/" rel="tag">Forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/blogs/" rel="tag">Blogs</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rants-and-raves/" rel="tag">Rants and Raves</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/china/" rel="tag">China</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/gettingstarted/" rel="tag">Getting Started</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/columns/" rel="tag">Columns</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ptr/" rel="tag">PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)</a></p><p>At least in the short run, PetroChina Company Ltd ADR (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/petrochina-company-limited/ptr/nys">PTR</a>) is down for the year and may affect my stock pick average when I report the first month of results next Monday. When I wrote about PTR: <a title="View PetroChina: Not a bargain, but one to watch for 2007 on Blogging Stocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/petrochina-not-a-bargain-but-one-to-watch-for-2007/" target="_blank">PetroChina: Not a bargain, but one to watch for 2007</a> and included the stock as one of my seven picks for the year, I actually stated <strong><em>"I love this company,</em>"</strong> and I cautioned that it was close to an all-time high. After three weeks the shares are down. In the absence of this pick the rest are doing fine; the other six are up so far.</p>
<p>I'm into the stock at $44 and $55 per share in two different portfolios and have made this stock a mainstay that I cannot imagine selling, for reasons that you can read about in any one of my numerous stories on the company over the last eight months. It closed Tuesday at $127.17 per share, up $3.91 but down from $142.12 on December 28, 2006. For the year I still expect PTR to be up, <em>but the slow start is a reminder</em>, and when I look at my watch list there are picks I would have been less emotional about.</p>
<p>I am writing this story not so much about PTR but to call your attention to the hazard of falling in love with a stock. It is an investment, and besides your family, falling in love is a mistake, in particular with an investment because it can cloud your judgment. (This happens with family too, but that's another story.) If you have been involved with the stock market and investing in general, I'm sure you may have heard this before. Success itself can cloud your judgment as well. In the case of PetroChina, the stock has moved progressively higher, even when other Chinese stocks have faltered over the past few years. I am sticking with this pick because of its products and services, business financials and management -- and cautioning all to leave out the emotion when making investments.</p>
<p>Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/bloggers/sheldon-liber/">here</a>. Be sure to read <a title="View You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007! on Blogging Stocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/you-dont-have-to-be-007-to-find-the-best-picks-for-2007/" target="_blank">You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!</a> <br /><em><br />Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture &amp; planning firm. </em></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/24/falling-in-love-with-petrochina-may-cost-me/">Falling in love with PetroChina may cost me</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Wed, 24 Jan 2007 10:00:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/24/falling-in-love-with-petrochina-may-cost-me/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/741360/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/24/falling-in-love-with-petrochina-may-cost-me/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 stock picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Falling in love with stocks</category><category>FallingInLoveWithStocks</category><category>investment focus</category><category>InvestmentFocus</category><category>PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR)</category><category>PetrochinaCoLtdAdr(ptr)</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 24 Jan 2007 10:00:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Dow Jones OK, but Dow Chemical better]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/23/dow-jones-ok-but-dow-chemical-better/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/23/dow-jones-ok-but-dow-chemical-better/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/23/dow-jones-ok-but-dow-chemical-better/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/forecasts/" rel="tag">Forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/good-news/" rel="tag">Good news</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rants-and-raves/" rel="tag">Rants and Raves</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/competitive-strategy/" rel="tag">Competitive Strategy</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/marketmatters/" rel="tag">Market Matters</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/columns/" rel="tag">Columns</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/dow/" rel="tag">Dow Chemical (DOW)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/ETF-Investing/" rel="tag">ETF Investing</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/economic-data/" rel="tag">Economic Data</a></p><p>I expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) will continue its upward trend in 2007 although not by the same margin that it did in 2006. On the other hand, I expect The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-dow-chemical-company/dow/nys?tabs=quotesandnews">DOW</a>) to beat the DJIA and be one of the success stories of the year. I outlined many reasons for this in <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/dow-chemical-solid-pick-for-2007/" title="View Dow Chemical: a solid pick for 2007 on Blogging Stocks">Dow Chemical: a solid pick for 2007</a>. Three weeks have passed since this story was published, but I am feeling even better about it today than I did originally.</p>
<p>I have already outlined the fundamental financial data, stock buybacks and dividends, but there is another trend that will contribute to stronger returns: The fall in oil prices, a major cost component in many of its 3500 products, is down by 30%. This should be a very positive influence on DOW's bottom line during the next few quarters. While lower oil prices reduce product costs, lower overall energy prices will also contribute to profits because DOW has major infrastructure as an old line company. Unlike services companies and Internet companies that keep plant and operations to a minimum, companies like DOW pay a penalty when energy prices go up and receive a benefit when they go down. It is as if they were running a brokerage account with margin leverage; the good times and bad times are exaggerated.</p>
<p>We have already witnessed James Cramer do an about face on technology stocks and he has started to turn more Bearish on the overall market after being all hyped up just two weeks ago. My picks will haunt me all year. I did not make one pick I could not live with, this year, and for the next ten.</p>
<p>Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/bloggers/sheldon-liber/">here</a>. Be sure and read <a target="_blank" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/you-dont-have-to-be-007-to-find-the-best-picks-for-2007/" title="View You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007! on Blogging Stocks">You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!</a> <br /><em><br />Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture &amp; planning firm. </em></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/23/dow-jones-ok-but-dow-chemical-better/">Dow Jones OK, but Dow Chemical better</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Tue, 23 Jan 2007 11:08:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/23/dow-jones-ok-but-dow-chemical-better/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/740603/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/23/dow-jones-ok-but-dow-chemical-better/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock Picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>DJIA</category><category>dow</category><category>Dow Chemical</category><category>Dow Jones</category><category>DowChemical</category><category>DowJones</category><category>Long term investing</category><category>LongTermInvesting</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><category>Stock Picks</category><category>StockPicks</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 23 Jan 2007 11:08:00 EST</pubDate></item><item><title><![CDATA[Home Depot is getting very crowded]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/15/home-depot-is-getting-very-crowded/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/15/home-depot-is-getting-very-crowded/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/15/home-depot-is-getting-very-crowded/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/analyst-reports/" rel="tag">Analyst Reports</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/forecasts/" rel="tag">Forecasts</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/rants-and-raves/" rel="tag">Rants and Raves</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/hd/" rel="tag">Home Depot (HD)</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/columns/" rel="tag">Columns</a>, <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/analyst-initiations/" rel="tag">Analyst Initiations</a></p><p>At the end of last year I selected The Home Depot (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.aol.com/quotes/the-home-depot-inc/hd/nys">HD</a>) as one of my seven picks for the coming year in the post <a title="View You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007! on Blogging Stocks" href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/28/you-dont-have-to-be-007-to-find-the-best-picks-for-2007/" target="_blank">You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007!</a> At the time I took notice of it my thoughts were reinforced by <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/18/magazines/moneymag/sivy_homedepot_lowes.moneymag/index.htm">an article in <em>Money Magazine</em></a> by Michael Zivy, who also recommended Lowes as worthy of investment consideration. </p>
<p>Now, just over two weeks later, I have read many more similar reports touting the stock. No less than James Cramer of TheStreet.com, <em>Barron's</em>, <em>Fortune</em>, and more recently <a href="http://newsletters.businessweek.com/c.asp?id=642915&amp;c=fb9ba9c71ffd3a34&amp;l=2"><em>BusinessWeek </em>wrote it up</a> after the abrupt resignation of CEO Bob Nardelli. I am sure I have seen it discussed in other places too, but the point has been made. A crowd within the investment world has taken an interest in Home Depot stock. No such crowds have been reported in the actual stores.</p>
<p>Which is more important to the success of the company: more customers or more Wall Street players? In my own analysis I was looking at financial data and not trying to place any bets on when there might be a large positive swing in customer traffic. Are the investment world gurus (I'm not there yet) betting the stock rises because they are predicting more traffic, or is the stock going to rise in the short run even in the absence of customers simply because they say so? Short term the prognosticators do have an impact. Not only does the word on the street affect stock prices, but there are those that are leading global investment houses and placing real bets the stock will rise, so it must.</p>
<p>In the long run it will be customers and cash flow that will impact the stock price. And management decisions and the macro economy will impact customer flow. But, when I see a crowd I usually go the other way so I take pause to revisit my thinking on the subject of Home Depot. I am not fond of crowds but when they gather it is often worth knowing why. In this case I think my reasoning still has merit, so I will write this off to everyone jumping on the bandwagon. I do not claim to be the first one on the bandwagon, and do not know now when and if I will jump off. I will not be changing my seven picks during the year, so I guess I'm going along for the ride.</p>
<p>Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/bloggers/sheldon-liber/">here</a>.<br /><em><br />Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture &amp; planning firm. </em></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/15/home-depot-is-getting-very-crowded/">Home Depot is getting very crowded</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Mon, 15 Jan 2007 17:35:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/15/home-depot-is-getting-very-crowded/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/732415/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/01/15/home-depot-is-getting-very-crowded/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>2007 Stock Picks</category><category>2007StockPicks</category><category>Barron's</category><category>Business Week</category><category>BusinessWeek</category><category>Fortune Magazine</category><category>FortuneMagazine</category><category>Home Depot (HD)</category><category>HomeDepot(hd)</category><category>James Cramer</category><category>JamesCramer</category><category>Michael Zivy</category><category>MichaelZivy</category><category>Money Magazine</category><category>MoneyMagazine</category><category>Sheldon Liber</category><category>SheldonLiber</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheldon Liber]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jan 2007 17:35:00 EST</pubDate></item></channel></rss>
