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Chasing Value: Precision Drilling up 60% - something's working

Precision Drilling It has been a difficult year to find stocks that have done well in the market. To find a stock that has had staggering returns has been even rarer. I know because I've had a few disasters like Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), which will soon be folded up into JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and is only one among many financial nightmares.

A while back I reported in Chasing Value: Precision Drilling up 46% since December that one of my picks was having an amazing year. The first quarter is behind us and the dream continues. Precision Drilling Services TR (NYSE: PDS), continues to rise while it is drilling down, increasing from $15.47 when I originally reviewed it to last night's close at $24.75.

This 60% jump is on top of the 10% dividend yield, which by itself is quite satisfactory. From the many people that follow my rants and raves, I sometimes get suggestions or questions that lead me in a certain direction. I have to share credit with a good friend of mine, Joe G., for shining a light on Precision Drilling. He was right that it was worth a look and of course I shared my findings with everyone when I recommended the stock three months ago.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Precision Drilling up 60% - something's working

Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson born to be wild but not HOG wild

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) logoWhen last I looked at Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) in 2007 the stock was trading a lot higher. I argued at the time that there was value in this quality company and investors should take a look. Others liked the company, but wisely said there was plenty of time to wait because profits would be coming down with the slowing economy.

Some commented that HOG was over-priced in the high $40's even though it had come down from it's 52-week high of $66 per share. It was trading at a sizable 26% discount when I posted Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson (HOG) profits down 15% -- beats Wall St. last November at $48.95. Having closed yesterday at $39.39 it is now down over 40%.

Many of the brightest minds in my circles feel the economy will not pick up significantly for another 18 months and that we will have fits and starts in between then and now. There does not appear to be any urgency to acquiring stocks that will be dependent on economic recovery to turn for the better. However, HOG might be one to dollar cost average into over time if you believe it will not turn into General Motors or fade like Levi Strauss.

It is currently paying over a 3% dividend yield and unlike other companies Harley has been raising it recently, not lowering it. The P/E ratio of 10 which is projected to hold going forward, the ROE over 36 which is substantial and the ROIC over 20 are more than respectable.

I have not heard even a whisper doubting its superior quality of management and they seem to have put any labor issues to rest as well. I thought there was value in HOG a few months ago so I have to believe the story is even better today with international markets growing and all types of motorcycles being considered for those trying to stretch their gas dollars.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of HOG.

Chasing Value: Anglo American -- great pick, but alas...

Anglo American logo What's a value investor to do, my oh my...

Well folks, I have been following Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) for quite some time now. We own it in one portfolio, but recently I missed what now looks like a great opportunity to load up on it for the long haul.

In January the stock was trading under $25 for a few days but I was on vacation -- I'm forced to take one every so often by my family, I'm sure some of you know how that is. This was the week the DJIA dropped over 500 points one day when Bernanke dropped the Fed rate by a full point.

When I returned I set a stock alert for $26 per share thinking this would be doable. Unfortunately the lowest price it was available at in February was $27.20, intraday, on the 5th. It has only gone up since and closed yesterday at $33.28. It is trading up $1.35 mid-day to $34.63. All I can do is keep watching for another opportunity and be patient.

Anybody out there get in at the right time? AAUK is one of my picks for 2008 Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend. Mr. noital has been cherry picking my picks for a while now -- anybody else out smart the 'professor'?

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.

Update: AAUK closed at $34.635 (UP 1.355)

Chasing Value: Loews Corp. has all the right pieces

This was one of my last to make the list of 8 for 2008, and did not show up in previous stories, but investors should take note. Everything we read and hear about the investment climate in 2008 makes one rather tepid about the stock market. One of my friends even suggested to me a few days ago that he was considering going to all cash. That is a bad idea. A better idea is to find investments that will do well in this environment. Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) might very well be that company. The stock closed on December 28, 2007, at $49.35.

In a recent news release, Loews announced a plan to spin-off Lorillard. By mid-summer LTR should be separated from this tobacco company and maker of the Newport brand of cigarettes. This will free up some cash for stock buybacks, according to the article, and also from some liability. This might be good news to many but is not the reason I like Loews so much.

The real reason is that in searching out investment opportunities I took an interest in Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO) as a major player in the search for oil offshore. Well it turns out that Loews is a major shareholder. When I was reviewing insurance companies, which were way down in 2007, and I think oversold now, I came across CNA Financial (NYSE: CNA), which has fallen on hard times and may be a comeback story. Then I learn that Loews owns a major stake in CNA too.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Loews Corp. has all the right pieces

Chasing Value: Huaneng Power still the one in China

I have wriiten so much about Huaneng Power International ADR (NYSE: HNP) that I am not sure there is much more to say. This is another one in my must-own category, so it is just a matter of when you get in. Most of my sentiments can be found in Volatile Markets: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years.

HNP pays a sizable 3.6% dividend yield and has plenty of room to run. It has come down a lot with the rest of the inflated Chinese stock market, but this one is not threatened by competition and is a good long-term value. It is the largest utility company in China, entrenched in government projects and receives support that would be full of conflicts of interest in a western economy.

I have made the case recently that electric utilities have been great investments over the long term in Serious Money: Electric utilities are the place to be, and I am still a believer. China's growth curve will continue to dwarf that of the United States. It takes electricity for all the things you know about and many you do not. I am not sure that the average investor is aware for example that the production of aluminum consumes a lot of electricity. And it is being used in increasing amounts as reducing energy costs often means reducing weight.

Aluminum is used in windows, cars, planes, electronics, and this is a great trend to follow as well. One of my top picks last year was Aluminum Corp of China ADS (NYSE: ACH), and I would have included it here if not for its sky-high price.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Huaneng Power still the one in China

Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend

To me Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is another must-own stock that could end up in M&A discussions, and in this year of uncertainty that's all the more likely. Let's see, it's a global player in diamonds, gold, silver, platinum, coal, and more. This is a currency play, a commodities play, a global play, and an inflation hedge -- got to love that if you can get it at the right price. It was higher, but the closing price on December 28, 2007, for AAUK was $30.79.

Unlike oil prices that may be affected by the weather, new technologies, or alternative sources, these commodities will remain in demand. Gold may be used instead of silver, platinum instead of gold, but except for locating new supplies the demand for these precious metals and commodities can only grow with the growth of the new economies and the wealth of their citizens.

AAUK was one of my better calls during 2007, up about 30%, but I take pause wondering if it will do well based on economic fear driving precious metals up, or whether it will have to rebalance its mining efforts based on less demand for commodities if there is a slow down.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend

Chasing Value: Reliance Steel & Aluminum adding value globally

Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) made my 2008 short list. It processes and distributes more than 100,000 products made of carbon, alloy, stainless, and specialty steel, as well as aluminum, brass, copper, and titanium. It serves more than 125,000 customers. On December 28, 2007 RS closed at $54.32 per share.

Commodities have been hot the last few years and there has been a lot of activity as the steel market in particular has seen a lot of mergers. The downturn in construction in the latter half of 2007 has affected the stock prices of most companies producing building materials, and most of the steel mills would be included in that category.

Reliance seems to have escaped that pitfall by making value-added products for a very broad range of industries and customers. This specialization is why I picked it over one of my other contenders Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE), which is one of the world leaders in the idea of mini-mills. Nucor is a wonderful company that has been very successful; however, in a sputtering economy you have to be able to distinguish yourself from the crowd.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Reliance Steel & Aluminum adding value globally

Chasing Value: Valero Energy (VLO) is just so refined

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) logo If you do not own Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) already, you were not listening last year when I was ranting and raving every month why this was a must-own stock. It was one of my favorites last year, remains one of my favorites now and looks to have an open road ahead of it in 2008.

Valero's profit margins were squeezed in the second half of 2007 by high crude prices rising while pump prices were stable, but that is likely to change, and I think the stock can continue to appreciate significantly. It may not change fast , as the economy is going through some rough spots. Also, VLO, which is reporting earnings on January 29, may still have some lingering margin issues.

Last year this was one of my top picks and jumped 36%. I rarely make specific predictions as analysts tend to do, but I feel comfortable stating VLO can beat all the major indices. Everything I liked about Valero last year is still in play now, so I'm letting this winner ride.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Valero Energy (VLO) is just so refined

Chasing Value: Newcastle's 22% yield will reward patience

Newcastle Investments (NYSE: NCT) logo Among my stock picks this year, Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) may seem to have the greatest risk, but it is a calculated risk and has the potential of very high rewards. It has lost two-thirds of its value since the first quarter of 2007 and I believe has the potential to double if it can just tread water for a couple of quarters. The reason the dividend is so high is that the price dropped due to fear in the market place over its loan portfolio, not a loss of cash flow. The fear is palpable, but is it warranted? I do not think so. On December 28, 2007 NCT closed at $13.08 per share.

Newcastle is a REIT that invests in real estate loans, not the actual real estate, and 90% of those loans are in non-residential projects. Over the past six months, the financial sector has become one big horror story and investors ran from the "financial theaters" in panic. So in my own version of the story, Chasing Value: Newcastle's 21.9% yield too good to be I true?, I decided to play Ghostbusters and tried to make it clear that there is value in NCT. Suppose the yield fell with the stock price as defaults affected cash flow, I could still be very happy with a 7% to 8% yield.

I will summarize here by letting you know I did what homework I could and checked out NCT's recent conference call. This company has averaged an 8.8% yield over the last five years. However, today because the stock is now a third of its recent price, the yield has jumped to 21.9%. Newcastle is standing by this dividend. Actually I think it has to, because REITs are required to pay out most of their profits, and Newcastle has earned 23% over the last fiscal year.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Newcastle's 22% yield will reward patience

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-39.5310,411.42
NASDAQ-12.272,163.74
S&P 500-2.841,103.40

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 01:28 PM

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