The U.S. economy will grow at a minuscule rate in Q1 2008 and the odds of a recession in 2008 stand at 50/50, according to a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg News.

The 62-economist survey expects the world's largest economy to grow just 0.5% in Q1 2008, Bloomberg News reported. Meanwhile, the 2008 recession probability was increased to 50%, up from 40% in January 2008.

Economist Steve Affinito, who did not partake in the survey, told BloggingStocks Friday that 2008 looks like it will be the roughest election year, from an economic standpoint, since 1992.

Bearish, bullish forces

"We've got major contraction forces in the housing slump, the credit market crunch, and in high oil prices. Any one of those could cut growth substantially. Taken together, they can flatten economic activity," Affinito said. "On the stimulus side, we have 225 basis points of Fed rate decreases and a $168 billion fiscal stimulus package, so 2008 is shaping up to be a battle royal, economically speaking."

Oooh, ahh, oh. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) announced its newest luscious piece of hardware, the MacBook Air, today at the MacWorld conference. Every one of my geeky friends on Twitter wants the newest, thinnest, most desirable piece of hardware since the iPhone (one of my friends has already purchased one, in fact) -- but most of us can't afford it.

Could it be because we're just not Jobsian enough?

I was ooh-ing and ahh-ing over the MacBook Air on Engadget's hands-on photo gallery when I saw this photo, above. Notice something? Each and every MacWorld attendee allowed to touch the super-light laptop is wearing a variation on Steve Jobs' trademark black mock turtleneck. Sure, there are a few button-up shirts, a sport coat, a crewneck or two, but all is a sea of black. Note to self: If I go to MacWorld next year, wear orange! And see what happens. All that conformity could be key to Apple's stock price (seriously!): Apple followers, both spiritual and financial, tend to behave a bit like lemmings.

I read a quote in an article recently which stated, "What Wall Street is about is smart guys thinking about ways to make money from dumb ones." That quote is attributed to one John E. Fitzgibbon, the publisher of an online newsletter, in an article from Eric Dash via The New York Times. While Mr. Fitzgibbon's remark might validate special investing skill on the part of some smart and timely investors, I take exception to the notion that all those investors who lost money in the markets over the past year are the dumb ones.

The question now is, where is the smart money headed?

Concerning top picks for 2008, those assertive investors who can tolerate moderate/high risk should consider Transocean (NYSE: RIG). Transocean is favored here because it fits the investment theme of well-capitalized, experienced companies with long-term global trends in the company's favor. Transocean offers deepwater drilling services in the world's major offshore oil-producing regions, including Africa, Asia, Brazil, Canada, India, Middle East, Gulf of Mexico, and the North Sea -- and demand for drilling services is unlikely to decline in the immediate years ahead. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $84.

For those in need of a safer, large-cap play, consider Boeing (NYSE: BA), which boasts a solid commercial airline order book. Boeing is expected to win its global aviation battle with European rival Airbus, and in the process, transform flight as the 21st century progresses. Boeing's ace in the ongoing battle? The 787 Dreamliner, a super-efficient aircraft that will give airlines the profit margins they need and passengers the creature comforts/amenities they require in the digital age. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $58.

DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

The New York Times asked six economists whether the U.S. is in a recession. Their conclusion seems to be that they don't know whether we're in a recession but that the housing market slowdown and the related debt bomb could lead us there.

I'm not an economist but I played one in 2004. That's when I worked with the John Kerry campaign and had a chance to meet one of the economists -- Jason Furman -- whose op-ed appeared Sunday. I also appeared opposite another of the contributing economists, Kevin Hassett, in an interview on Wall $treet Week with Fortune the day after the Democratic National Convention.

I don't know what 2008 will bring. But I think it depends on two factors: whether the Bush administration decides to take any radical policy moves or just twiddles its thumbs until its term expires, and how deep and wide the global impact of the housing market slump and the related credit market freeze will be. To address the analysis behind this forecast, here are my thoughts on five key questions:

When I first read this article from CNN Money.com, regarding the Obama/Edwards tag team against Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), my brain yelled, "Huh? What? Who?"

What are two liberal socialist Democrats doing taking potshots at Wal-Mart of all things? Egads, couldn't they even wait until after Christmas before tossing their first '08 presidential campaign grenade?

Illinois senator Barack Obama(D) and former Democratic vice presidential hopeful John Edwards, drew the sword Wednesday along with Wal-Mart watchdog group WakeUpWalMart.com to denounce Wal-mart Corporation regarding the treatment of their employees. The two politicians had to "back door" their appearance by going through the union assembled public group because it is perhaps bad form and too controlled to directly address the union through normal channels. The entire event was obviously exploited by Obama and Edwards in an attempt to gain increased appeal to the minimum wage sector.

I'm not a big fan of Wal-mart, but I don't like this political pawn pushing either. If Obama and Edwards are looking for grassroots brownie points, they've picked a pretty rude way to get them.