What does the coming year hold for the economy? BloggingStocks' Peter Cohan considers five issues that will factor heavily in 2008.

2008 is an election year in the U.S., which means that nothing significant is likely to change in terms of government policy. The one wild card in that assessment is whether the Bush administration will go to war in Iran – or take some other radical policy move -- since it knows it has very little time left.

Assuming nothing significant changes, the biggest economic story of 2008 is likely to be the repercussions from the deepened collapse of the housing market and all the credit markets that plunge in its wake. There are no firewalls in place to keep the drop in CDO, MBS, and SIV values from spreading to the entire global financial system.

The question is whether the U.S. policymakers will be able to do anything effective to stop the damage.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

What does the coming year hold for the economy? BloggingStocks' Peter Cohan considers five issues that will factor heavily in 2008.

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are estimated to be between $2 trillion and $15 trillion. That's a wide range, but even at the low end, it's a lot of money. The SWFs are potentially economic and political Trojan horses. They are using the current problems in the credit markets as a chance to buy stakes in U.S. banks for relatively paltry sums. It remains to be seen whether they are getting in at the bottom or whether they're foolishly buying in way too soon.

However, if they get big enough stakes in strategic industries in the U.S., they will be in a position to influence U.S. policy. For example, if the funds do not like U.S. Middle East policies, they can threaten to withdraw their capital. If that capital is hard to replace, the U.S. will find itself needing to choose between imperiling the survival of its banking system or changing its foreign policies.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

What does the coming year hold for the economy? BloggingStocks' Peter Cohan considers five issues that will factor heavily in 2008.

Stagflation -- high inflation coupled with weak growth -- is a risk. The latest inflation statistics suggest that inflation is running at a 4.2% annual rate. That's way above the 1% to 2% range that then Fed targets. And by cutting rates, the Fed is contributing to inflation. Energy, food, metals, and other commodity prices are rising due to demand from China and India. But the Fed contributes to the price increases because oil prices are denominated in dollars. When the Fed cuts rates, the value of the dollar drops and the price of oil rises, so inflation is certainly going to rise.

The question remains whether the economy will slow down or whether the stimulus from lower rates will keep it growing. My hunch is that the key to economic growth will be the availability of credit for consumers and businesses. As long as U.S. businesses can get enough capital to keep growing and meeting demand from China and India, they will keep people employed. The weaker dollar actually helps the competitiveness of these U.S. exporters since their goods are cheaper in the international markets compared to those of European manufacturers, whose prices are denominated in more valuable euros.

And as long as people remain employed, they will be able to use their credit cards to keep buying things.

The New York Times asked six economists whether the U.S. is in a recession. Their conclusion seems to be that they don't know whether we're in a recession but that the housing market slowdown and the related debt bomb could lead us there.

I'm not an economist but I played one in 2004. That's when I worked with the John Kerry campaign and had a chance to meet one of the economists -- Jason Furman -- whose op-ed appeared Sunday. I also appeared opposite another of the contributing economists, Kevin Hassett, in an interview on Wall $treet Week with Fortune the day after the Democratic National Convention.

I don't know what 2008 will bring. But I think it depends on two factors: whether the Bush administration decides to take any radical policy moves or just twiddles its thumbs until its term expires, and how deep and wide the global impact of the housing market slump and the related credit market freeze will be. To address the analysis behind this forecast, here are my thoughts on five key questions: