It may come to pass that all this talk of a recession, on top of the real issues of the depressed housing market, higher energy costs and tight credit, could end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, if we stick to the definition -- a recession is defined to be a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth -- it won't happen.
By this measure, I just do not see a recession in the cards. The presidential election will be going fast and furious in the third and fourth quarters of the year. In addition, the third quarter will see the long awaited summer Olympics in China while the fourth has the election midway through it, plus the holidays. Even if the Federal Reserve Board is supposed to be independent, does anybody really think that there isn't a lot of winking and nodding going on in Washington DC during election years?
I would speculate that if we are going to see two quarters of negative growth, it would come earlier in the year. But we're not there yet, and although the stock market has been anemic as of late, I think solid unemployment numbers will carry us through the first quarter. I think the spring is the most likely candidate for a negative quarter but I just don't see two in a row.
For a quick-read on the U.S. economy, check the price of gasoline
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