I almost was one of the people that put money back in the market at the end of the year. It's a new year, Obama is coming in, things will improve, I figured. But I held back. I don't like to make market decisions based solely on gut. And even then, my gut is of two minds and one of them says this recession is going to be the worst of my lifetime.

Some stats do point to an up year this year. We've been hearing a lot this week how the market goes up a lot after a fall. My friends at the always smart Stock Traders' Almanac use a measure of the first five trading days of the year. It was on this measure that I -- thankfully -- pulled back last January. If the first five days are up, the year will be generally be up, they've found. Sy Hirsch invented this measure as an improvement on his other early indicator, which says however January goes, so goes the market for the year.

For the last 36 times that the market has been up for those first five trading days in January, the market has been up for the whole year, they say. And they judge the indicator to have a 86% accuracy ratio. This year it's a little confusing: the Dow was down a little, the S&P was up a little (both under 1%) and the Nasdaq was up 2.5%. By that measure the rally that started in December will continue.

Since the S&P 500 hit an 11 year low of on November 20th, it's risen 24%. Does this have anything to do with President-elect Barack Obama? I have absolutely no idea -- but it could. That was the week when Obama cut back on talking about how there was only one President at a time and began to assemble and announce his economic team.

This was also the time I began to notice that some stocks in my newsletter started to go up. And yet the drumbeat of bad economic news continues -- with the latest being the worst decline in global manufacturing activity in 60 years. The big question for investors is whether the 24% rise in the S&P 500 is the end of a bear market rally or the beginning of a bigger one.

The only rationale I can think of for a rise in stocks is that investors may have concluded that the stimulus plan -- which has been rumored to be potentially $1 trillion -- could boost specific stocks in 2009 as that money begins to create jobs for companies that build roads, bridges, and broadband networks across the U.S. Alternatively, today's rally could reflect investors' realization that with money market and bank deposit rates near zero -- the only way to put all that cash to work is to move into stocks.

Are you participating in this Obama rally? Or do you think it's a head fake? How will you decide it's time to move your cash off the sidelines?

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

There is that famous exchange in 1952 at the Tokyo International Airport between Marilyn Monroe, whose ascendancy to quintessential and permanent sex symbol status and acting fame was well underway, and her fiancé, Joe DiMaggio, The Yankee Clipper, himself an American icon and symbol of a generation. Monroe, upon hearing the cheers, hoots, and howls of the thousands of fans who had gathered to greet her as she stepped on to the Land of the Rising Sun for the first time, turns to DiMaggio for a brief moment.

"Oh Joe, Joe, you've never heard such cheers!" the resplendent, ebullient Monroe said.

DiMaggio, knowingly, but also ever-so-reservedly responded, "Yes, I have Marilyn. Yes, I have."

There will be few cheers for 2008. It was, to put it mildly, a down year.