The conventional wisdom is that consumer spending is what drives the U.S. economy. And consumer spending arises out of consumer confidence. Unfortunately, the signals along the road to economic recovery are mixed, what with the rising GDP growth and the dismal unemployment numbers. Its enough to leave investors scratching their heads. What barometers of consumer confidence will the coming week bring?

The TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is scheduled for Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is due out Friday.

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) has pulled-back about $4 since first recommended on May 19, 2009 at a price of $43.38, but view that as a Buy opportunity.

That's because an argument can be made that auto repair represents one of the best sectors over the next one-two years. Here's why:

Last week offered mixed messages about whether an economic recovery is indeed underway. The unemployment figures were not as bad as feared, but July sales numbers were nothing to write home about, despite the wild popularity of the so-called cash-for-clunkers program.

The question is, where has consumer confidence (and consumer spending) been? Retail is a good place to look, and as it turns out, this week several shopping mall and strip mall favorites will be reporting earnings for the most recent quarter.

Analyst upgrades:

• Kaufman Bros. assumed coverage of Ctrip.com (NASDAQ: CTRP) and upgraded the stock to Buy from its previous Hold rating. The firm thinks the company's Q2 targets are achievable while 20%-plus growth should return in Q3 as comps ease.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Cogdell Spencer (NYSE: CSA) to Neutral from Sell as it believes last night's capital raise removes risk. The firm has a $4.50 target on shares.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Map Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MAPP) to Buy from Hold following the positive Levadex Phase 3 results as it believes the migraine drug could generate peak sales of $250M in the U.S. if approved. Deutsche raised its target on shares to $12 from $5.
• Northwest Natural Gas (NYSE: NWN) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Petro-Canada (NYSE: PCZ) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
• Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) was upgraded to Add from Reduce at WestLB.

Without question, this market remains a stock picker's market. Select the wrong stock, and there's a 30-40% haircut up ahead; select the correct stock, and you're positioned for the recovery with modest downside exposure. For a chance at the latter, consider Advanced Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP).

There are no 'sweet' sectors in this market, but an argument can be made that auto repair represents one of the best. The increase in the average U.S. vehicle age, less-than-ideal credit conditions for new car purchases, and a recession that's created the era of the 'frugal consumer,' all bode well for AAP, for an obvious reason: more Americans will have to keep that used car in good running condition because a new one probably is not their immediate future.

Analyst upgrades:

• Janney Montgomery upgraded Aqua America (NYSE: WTR) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, viewing the recent weakness as a buying opportunity. The firm has a $19 target on the stock.
• UBS upgraded Gildan Activewear (NYSE: GIL) to Buy from Neutral due to customer Broder's improved liquidity and the improved outlook for margins.
• RBC Capital upgraded State Street (NYSE: STT) to Top Pick from Outperform and raised its target to $55 from $40. The analyst said the $2B capital raise addresses TCE ratio concerns and large unrealized losses in the investment portfolio.
• Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) was upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Banc of America/Merrill.
• M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein.

• Citigroup upgraded Abbott Lab (NYSE: ABT) to Hold from Sell on valuation following the stock's recent underperformance. The firm maintains a $48 price target.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Pepsi Bottling (NYSE: PBG) and Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE: DPS) to Buy from Hold as they believe carbonated soft drinks market is showing signs of stabilization. The firm raised its price target on Pepsi Bottling to $28 from $25 and on Dr. Pepper Snapple to $22 from $20.
  
• Baird upgraded CommScope (NYSE: CTV) to Outperform from Neutral and raised their target to $19 from $10 as they expect fundamentals to bottom in Q1 and ramp strongly in Q2 as wireless capex outlook improves.
• Sinopec Shanghai (NYSE: SHI) was raised to Buy from Sell at Goldman.
  
• TRW Automotive (NYSE: TRW) was upgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Underweight.

Analyst upgrades:

• Thomas Weisel upgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) to Market Weight from Underweight. Thomas Weisel said they are less negative on the outlook for memory industry dynamics but they do expect SanDisk shares to be range bound.
  
• Citigroup upgraded shares of Hershey (NYSE:HSY) to Buy from Hold as they believe Hershey is benefiting from increased advertising spending and the consumer trade-down to less expensive chocolate. The firm maintains a $39 target on the stock.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) to Buy from Holdas they believe the company will be a beneficiary from the Circuit City liquidation.
• Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  
• Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) and Virgin Media (NASDAQ:VMED) were raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• NewMarket (NYSE:NEU) was upgraded at KeyBanc to Buy from Hold.

Analyst downgrades:

• Citigroup downgraded Kellogg (NYSE:K) to Hold from Buy as they believe the company's U.S. trends are decelerating and that FX trends will have a negative impact. The firm lowered their target price to $47 from $58.
  
• Jefferies downgraded Cerner (NASDAQ:CERN) to Hold from Buy following Eclipsys' (NASDAQ:ECLP) negative pre-announcement as they believe both companies are suffering from a downturn in hospital spending. Jefferies lowered their target on Cerner to $38 from $51.
  
• Oppenheimer cut Amdocs (DOX) to Perform from Outperform following the weak Q1 results citing lack of near-term catalysts and the macroeconomic slowdown.
• Eclipsys (NASDAQ:ECLP)was downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Jefferies and to Neutral from Buy at Piper Jaffray.
  
• PetSmart (NASDAQ:PETM) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ:FULT) was lowered to Underperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Analyst initiations:

• Wunderlich initiated Republic Services (NYSE:RSG) with a Buy rating and $30 target and believes the company should enjoy sustainable pricing leverage following the merger with Waste Management.
  
• RBC Capital initiated Elan Corp (NYSE:ELN) with an Underperform rating and $4 target based on Tysabri uncertainty, bapineuzumab clinical risk, MS competition, and debt overhang.
  
• Oppenheimer expects Ligand Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:LGND) to become an aggressive acquirer of financially distressed biotech companies with the completion of the acquisition of Pharmacopeia. Shares were assumed with an Outperform rating and $5 target.
• Zebra Tech (NASDAQ:ZBRA) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $25 target at JP Morgan.
  
• Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) was reinitiated at Friedman Billings with an Outperform rating and $14 target.
  
• Ameren (NYSE:AEE) was assumed with a Hold rating at Jesup & Lamont.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) to Buy from Neutral based on expectations the it can deliver on 2009 EPS expectations and potential for accelerating share gains.
  
• Bernstein upgraded Nokia (NYSE:NOK) to Outperform from Underperform on valuation following the company's profit warning. Merrill upgraded shares to Buy from Neutral to reflect valuation and Nokia's new product portfolio. Shares were also upgraded to Hold from Sell at WestLB.
  
• B. Riley raised UCBH Holdings (NASDAQ:UCBH) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the improved valuation and the company's stronger capital position provided by the US Treasury investment.
• Parexel (NASDAQ:PRXL) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
  
• CTS Corp (NYSE:CTS) was lifted to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Hospitality Properties (NYSE:HPT) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst downgrades:

• Soleil downgraded Disney (NYSE:DIS) to Hold from Buy to reflect the weakening macro-economic outlook and their belief consensus estimates may be too high. The firm lowered their target to $23 from $40.
  
• Merrill downgraded Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) to Neutral from Buy on expectations PC sales will decline next year amid the slowing economy. The firm lowered Dell's target price to $13 from $22.
  
• Jefferies cut MDS Inc (NASDAQ:MDZ) to Hold from Buy to reflect slowing demand and a lack of catalysts to unlock the company's assets. The firm lowered their target to $10.50 from $15.
• Alcoa (NYSE:AA) was lowered to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
• Tesco PLC (Other OTC:TSCDY) was downgraded at JP Morgan to Underweight from Neutral.
  
• Merrill downgraded SAP AG (NYSE:SAP) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Goldman added Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR) to the Conviction Sell List.

Analyst initiations:

• Citigroup thinks AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) will benefit from the slowdown in car sales and thinks the recent pullback is overdone. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $146 target.
• Citigroup also believes Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) will benefit from the slowdown in car sales and started shares with a Buy rating and $35 target.
  
• After Sunway (OTCBB:SUWG) reported higher than expected revenue, Roth Capital thinks the company is poised for substantial growth, but the firm thinks its remaining warrants may keep the shares trading at a modest valuation for a significant amount of time. The firm started shares with a Hold rating and $3.60 target.
• Mechel Steel (NYSE:MTL) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Merrill Lynch.
  
• China Life Insurance (NYSE:LFC) was assumed with a Buy rating at UBS.
  
• Gap (NYSE:GPS) was started at Cowen with a Neutral rating.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merrill upgraded Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) to Buy from Neutral citing progress in the company's turnaround plan, execution, and 2009 earnings growth.
  
• Thomas Weisel raised Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) to Overweight from Market Weight and believes the company's core business remains strong and that valuation is attractive.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation after checks indicated the company should meet Q2 expectations.
• NeuStar (NSR) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
  
• UBS raised Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• Goldman upgraded Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) to Buy from Neutral.

Analyst downgrades:

• Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ: ZION) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its target to $33 from $43 following the company's Q3 results, as they believe near-term credit trends and concerns surrounding its securities portfolio will limit upside. Shares were also downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight due to deteriorating credit trends.
  
• Banc of America cut Monster (NASDAQ: MNST) to Neutral from Buy to reflect a lack of margin stability and their belief consensus estimates remain too high.
  
• Barclays downgraded Avis Budget Group (NYSE: CAR) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing the global economic slowdown and refinancing risk.
• Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), Luxottica (NYSE: LUX) and ArvinMeritor (NYSE: ARM) were cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.
  
• Luxottica was also downgraded at HSBC to Neutral from Overweight.
  
• JP Morgan cut AuthenTec (NASDAQ: AUTH) to Underweight from Neutral.

Analyst initiations:

• Janney Montgomery believes Gladstone Capital's (NASDAQ: GLAD) management team and lower portfolio investment risk profile warrant a premium valuation. The firm started shares with a Buy rating and $13 target.
• CommVault (NASDAQ: CVLT) was initiated with a Buy rating and $14 target at Cantor, as the firm finds the stock attractively valued given its secular growth rate potential.
  
• KeyBanc is positive on Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA) management team, growth potential, cost initiatives, and differentiation. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $30 target.
• Arris (NASDAQ: ARRS) was initiated at Jefferies with a Hold rating and $7 target.
  
• Rigel Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RIGL) was initiated at Banc of America with a Neutral rating and $21 target.
  
• Morgan Stanley started Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS) with an Equal Weight rating.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) lowered its Q3 earnings forecast below analysts' estimates.
• Advanced Medical Optics Inc. (NYSE: EYE) lowered guidance led to an analyst's downgrade.
• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) fell well short of Q3 estimates on lower demand and falling prices.
• Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) Q3 profits fell more than estimated, and it cut its dividend.
• Brunswick Corp. (NYSE: BC) forecast a full-year loss and accelerated layoffs.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) Q4 earnings just missed estimates thought revenues were up.
• Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) earnings results and growth prospects impressed one analyst.
• eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) earnings may be diluted by its acquisition of Bill Me Later.
• Ecolab Inc. (NYSE: ECL) earnings prospects led to an analyst's downgrade.
• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) results were in line with low expectations, and dividends will be sustained.
• General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) earnings prospects for 2009 impress Jim Cramer.
• Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NYSE: HST) Q3 earnings tumbled while revenue slipped.
• IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) surprised Wall Street by offering strong Q3 preliminary results.

Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP - option chain) shares are dropping today after the company forecast a third-quarter profit of 57 cents per share, coming in way below analysts' estimates of 66 cents per share. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on AAP.

This morning, AAP opened at $31.96. So far today the stock has hit a low of $27.73 and a high of $32.78. As of 12:05, AAP is trading at $29.71, down $4.66 (-13.6%). The chart for AAP looks neutral and S&P gives AAP a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $40 range.

Before the bell: Economic concerns still very much in focus (CFC, TXN, BX, HOV)

McDonald's Corp (NYSE: MCD) is scheduled to release its February sales Monday. An analyst who surveyed 33 franchises thinks McDonald's February same-store sales in its U.S. restaurants rose 4.3% on average. Excluding the extra day in February, same- store sales would have been up about 0.5-1%. The analyst survey came in withing 1% of the actual results in the past.

On Friday, Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) said that Stu Reed, who took over the mobile division in summer, has left the company effective immediately.
Meanwhile, South Korea's Fair Trade Commission fined Motorola Korean Inc. 696 million won, or $729,000, for helping three South Korean companies collude to get orders from government agencies.

Struggling electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) is trying to reinvent itself and "hopes its smaller concept stores, widespread cost-cutting and new support services will spark a turnaround despite increasing competition and the faltering economy."

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The auto parts retail sector, Electronics Arts (ERTS), Cinemark Holdings (CNK) and Monster Worldwide (MNST) were today's more noteworthy initiations:

• Wachovia initiated coverage on AutoZone (NYSE: AZO), Advance Auto Parts (NYSE: AAP) and O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY) with Outperform ratings. The firm sees upside for AutoZone from share buybacks, Advance Auto Parts from improved cost control and margins, and O'Reilly Automotive from share gains and fundamental performance.

• First Albany started Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) with a Buy rating and sees significant upside in the first-half of 2008.

• BMO Capital started Cinemark (NYSE: CNK) with an Outperform rating, citing Cinemark's internal growth opportunities as well as its international opportunities in Latin America.

• American Tech started Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ: MNST) with a Neutral rating, saying fundamentals and the macro backdrop remain uncertain...

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Bernstein initiated coverage on Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) with Outperform ratings and a $635 target and $39 target, respectively, and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), InterActive Corp (NASDAQ: IACI) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) with Market Perform ratings and a $65 target, $38 target and $29 target, respectively.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE: AAP), Solectron Corporation (NYSE: SLR), Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE: RCL) and were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded shares of Advance Auto Parts to Neutral from Underweight citing increased confidence in the company's turnaround efforts.
• Solectron was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse to reflect the company's acquisition by Flextronics International (NASDAQ: FLEX).
• Carnival was upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform and Royal Caribbean was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• BHP Billiton Ltd (NYSE: BHP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup on valuation and their expectations for higher commodity prices.
• Matrix USA upgraded shares of Callaway Golf Company (NYSE: ELY) to Hold from Strong Sell, as the firm believes growing demand for new products is driving positive fundamental trends.
• Lehman upgraded Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) to Overweight from Equal Weight, citing the potential for an accretive acquisition of buyback.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).