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CBS challenged in Q3, waiting for better advertising climate

Shares of CBS (NYSE: CBS) are no longer rolling around in the pits of equity hell. Do you recall when they were trading around $3 per share? Nasty time it was. Amazingly, as I write this, CBS is hovering near a 52-week high. They are well over $12 in value.

Yet, when I look at the latest earnings report, I don't feel as upbeat as the market. According to the press release (the link goes to a .pdf file), revenues were flat for the third quarter and adjusted income dropped to 25 cents per share from the year-ago figure of 39 cents per share.

Continue reading CBS challenged in Q3, waiting for better advertising climate

CBS tops estimates, but remains weak

CBS (NYSE: CBS), the famous broadcaster that competes with Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC, News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: NWS) Fox, and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC, reported Q2 earnings on Thursday after the bell. If you judged the performance solely by the profit drop, you would have no choice but to feel sorry for CBS. The media company made an adjusted 8 cents per share. Last year at this time, CBS pulled in an adjusted 49 cents per share.

But the market looked past the significant income decline and instead seemed to focus on the fact that management beat Wall Street's expectations by a penny, according to Earnings.com estimates. Shares of CBS were up over 7% during yesterday's after-hours session.

Continue reading CBS tops estimates, but remains weak

Disney's third-quarter earnings expected to decline

This afternoon,the Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) is going to be reporting its fiscal third quarter earnings.

Analysts are expecting to see the company hit hard by the current recession, with all segments of the company's business have felt the impact.

Continue reading Disney's third-quarter earnings expected to decline

DVR and content companies: What should the broadcasters do?

Julia Boorstin covered an interesting topic over at CNBC.com the other day. The Supreme Court, by electing not to review a case involving Cablevision (NYSE: CVC), essentially said that cable companies such as Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) can pursue digital video recorder (DVR) storage on cable-system servers. By doing this, a perceived barrier to entry for subscribing to DVR has been eliminated: you don't have to deal with a clunky box. Cable should theoretically see an increase in customers who adopt DVR technology if remote storage is exploited.

Well, as Boorstin rightly points out, CBS (NYSE: CBS), Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC, General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC, and News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: NWS) Fox do need to worry. These DVR technologies basically translate to a drop in the economic value of advertising. Let's face it: who watches commercials when they don't have to?

Continue reading DVR and content companies: What should the broadcasters do?

Options Update: Sony volatility low; five of Jackson's solo albums with Sony's Epic

Sony (NYSE: SNE) closed at $25.51. Five of Michael Jackson's solo Albums -- "Off the Wall," "Thriller," "Bad," "Dangerous" and "HIStory," all with Epic Records, a Sony Music Label -- are among the top-sellers of all time. SNE July option implied volatility of 42 is below its 26-week average of 53, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ARUN, MOS, POT, AGU, EGLE, DO, MON, SWCEY, TDC and ABC

Analyst upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
  • Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
  • Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
  • Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  • Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ARUN, MOS, POT, AGU, EGLE, DO, MON, SWCEY, TDC and ABC

CBS sees sales decline and a loss in Q1

CBS (NYSE: CBS) programmed its Q1 earnings report Thursday after the bell. If the report had been a pilot, it would have been canceled immediately.

Revenues slipped over 13% to around $3.2 billion. CBS said it lost 8 cents per share. Talk about a failure of a quarter. Last year at this time, CBS made 36 cents per share. True, the comparison was a difficult one, since a change in distribution strategy for the international placement of the CSI asset enhanced the previous year's results.

But let's not get hung up on difficult comparisons. CBS simply had a bad three months. A very bad three months indeed. Oh, and I should note that analysts thought CBS might earn 7 cents per share. That seems almost comical at this juncture.

Continue reading CBS sees sales decline and a loss in Q1

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: JPM, NOK, PALM, INTU

Analyst upgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC) to Buy from Hold on valuation as it views the risk/reward as favorable at current levels. Deutsche raised its target price to $41.50 from $38.
  • FBR Capigal upgraded Charlotte Russe (NASDAQ:CHIC) to Outperform from Market Perform following the company's Q2 results on expectations merchandise improvements and cost-cutting efforts will drive continued margin expansion. The firm raised its target on shares to $15 from $10.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded Fidelity National (NYS:FIS) to Outperform from Perform as it believes the Metavante (MV) acquisition makes strategic sense and the stock's risk/reward is favorable. The firm's target price is $25.
  • First American (NYSE:FAF) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
  • Nokia (NYSE:NOK) was raised to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  • Parker-Hannifin NYSE:(PH) was lifted at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: JPM, NOK, PALM, INTU

YouTube traps the Mouse -- who benefits the most?

It's all over the news. Media conglomerate Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) YouTube have entered into a deal for the former to supply content to the latter. Not for free, of course. There will be an ad-revenue-sharing model in place. The transaction calls for short-form content at first. This will be derived from ABC and ESPN properties. I assume that, if the short-form stuff works, then long-form stuff will follow pretty soon.

According to Julia Boorstin at CNBC, Disney will have full authority over the ad sales. That's good for shareholders of Disney. But YouTube wins a lot here, too. Google paid quite a bit of money to acquire the platform, and so far, monetization of the user-generated model has not been going smoothly.

YouTube needs to sign deals like these to legitimize its presence. It doesn't want to be known simply as the Cyberland of Copyright Infringement, a wicked, evil digital kingdom where content is stolen, used, and abused. That's how Viacom (NYSE: VIA) sees the site. It has engaged litigation against the company.

Continue reading YouTube traps the Mouse -- who benefits the most?

Good news, bad news: Oscar ratings improve ... from worst year ever

Best Actress Oscar StatuesThe underdog tale of Slumdog Millionaire and the bittersweet nomination of the deceased Heath Ledger may have had a few more people tuning in to last night's Oscar broadcast, which aired on Walt Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC Network. Preliminary Nielsen ratings indicate a 6% increase from last year.

The bad news? Last year marked a record low for the awards broadcast as 32 million viewers tuned in. And this year, if early numbers hold true, will be among the three least-watched Academy Awards broadcasts ever.

Continue reading Good news, bad news: Oscar ratings improve ... from worst year ever

CBS beats expectations, sure, but the dividend has been slashed!

CBS (NYSE: CBS) reported Q4 earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Revenues declined 8%, and earnings per share from continuing operations on an adjusted basis dropped 39% to $0.34. Let me tell you, the bottom line really beat the analysts. Expectations were set at $0.25 per share. That's a $0.09 beat. Pretty awesome, right?

Well, not to my way of thinking. You see, CBS has read the writing on the wall about its dividend. Due to current economic circumstances, the quarterly payout was reduced to $0.05 per share. Previously, CBS was doling out $0.27 per share.

Continue reading CBS beats expectations, sure, but the dividend has been slashed!

Earnings preview: Will Disney deliver the magic?

Disney (NYSE: DIS) will be reporting earnings for the fiscal first quarter Tuesday after the market close. There shouldn't be any growth in the bottom line. Of course, no one should be surprised by that. After all, this is Disney we're talking about, a company which provides goods and services that can easily be cut out of any consumer budget. Remember, conservation of cash is becoming quite the fad.

According to this source, Disney may earn $0.52 per share.That would represent a contraction of $0.11, or 17%. The big question is whether or not Disney will miss. If it does, investors won't be happy, because it'll be the second miss in a row. Wall Street was previously accustomed to seeing the Mouse religiously beat the analysts at their holy game. But Q4 changed the story.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Disney deliver the magic?

Will 'American Idol' and 'Lost' burn investors?

How can two of the most popular TV shows hurt investors? Easily.

"American Idol's" season 8 debut this week attracted more than 30 million viewers, making it the most watched TV show of the season, according to Nielsen Media Research. But as the Associated Press notes, that's not good news for Fox corporate parent News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) because it represents a viewership decline of 10 percent from the 2008 season.

Blame the Hollywood writers' strike and changing media habits. Couch potatoes across the U.S. got tired of watching rerun after rerun and decided to do other things such as play video games, watch movies and, heaven help us, read books. People got out of the television viewing habit that it took decades to develop. Getting people to come back to network TV is proving to be difficult.

It will be interesting to see if the audience returns to ABC's "Lost" when its newest season begins airing next week. The program's ratings began to decline last season as the plot lines got goofier. You can bet that the Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) has more than a passing interest in whether Jack convinces the other survivors to return to the island.

Continue reading Will 'American Idol' and 'Lost' burn investors?

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AAPL, ABX, MOT, RL, CLF

Analyst upgrades:
  • Oppenheimer upgraded AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC) to Outperform from Perform on the company's strong branded drug price inflation, potential for greater than expected buybacks, and their belief that prescription volume growth will stabilize after Q1. The firm raised their target to $45 from $36.
  • Baird upgraded Ecolab (NYSE:ECL) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation following reaffirmed guidance.
  • Goldman removed shares of Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) from its Conviction Sell List and upgraded it to Neutral from Sell based on valuation.
  • Teppco Partners (NYSE:TPP) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.
  • Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) was raised to Buy from Hold at Canaccord.
  • Coca Cola Femsa (NYSE: KOF)) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Overweight from Equal Weight.
Analyst downgrades:
  • RBC Capital downgraded Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares to Underperform from Sector Perform and lowered their target to $70 from $125 following the announcement that CEO Steve Jobs is taking a medical leave of absence. The analyst expects shares to be pressured by reduced earnings growth expectations and near-term leadership uncertainty.
  • Barclays downgraded Motorola (NYSE:MOT) to Equal Weight from Overweight as they do not expect handset recovery for at least 6 to 9 months.
  • Banc of America/Merrill downgraded Shire (NASDAQ:SHPGY) to Underperform from Buy based on earnings risk from the upcoming generic launch of Adderall XR.
  • Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) was added to Goldman's Conviction Sell List.
  • Starent Networks (NASDAQ:STAR) and Ceragon Networks (NASDAQ:CRNT) were downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays.
  • Casella Waste (NASDAQ:CWST) was lowered at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight.
Analyst initiations:
  • Citigroup initiated Cliffs Natural (NYSE:CLF) with a Buy rating and $43 target. The firm believes the company's multi-tier North American contract sales arrangements should allow it weather the volatility in the spot and seaborne markets and the firm expects volumes to improve in Q2.
  • ING started Arcelor Mittal (NYSE:MT) with a Sell rating and believes the economic slowdown will have a greater than expected impact on the steel industry.
  • Friedman Billings believes weakness in M&T Bank's (NYSE:MTB) regional economy could hinder the company's growth prospects and the firm is concerned about the bank's concentration in commercial and industrial loans. The firm has an Underperform rating and $30 target on the stock.
  • S&T Bancorp (NASDAQ:STBA) was initiated with a Market Perform rating at Keefe Bruyette.
  • RBC Capital initiated Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) with a Sector Perform rating and $61 target.

If broadcast TV is doing well, what happened to its stock prices?

Broadcast TV is apparently doing well compared to most other media. That is probably because it can still deliver tens of millions of people in one place and at one time. Marketers with products that sell nationwide and across fairly wide demographics cannot get that breadth of audience anywhere else.

According to The New York Times, "despite the continued fragmentation of national television viewing, the power of the broadcast networks to reach mass audiences on a nightly basis continued to give them an edge over other media."

That logic appears to have been missed by investors. CBS (NYSE:CBS), the biggest market "pure play" in broadcast TV is down over 70% during that last year. Contrast that to Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), which has no national broadcast network. Its shares are only off 40% for the same period.

Disney's (NYSE:DIS) reputation on Wall St. has little to do with its ownership of ABC. Investors like its ESPN cable network and its theme parks. ABC's numbers are often viewed as a drag on Disney's value.

NBC, which is part of the entertainment arm of GE (NYSE:GE), is routinely mentioned as a bad match for the rest of the conglomerate's business. Analysts often point to the fact that GE's value would be helped if it jettisoned the operation. It does not have the margins or growth potential of GE's huge infrastructure division.

If networks are doing so well, shareholders did not get the memo.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 05:51 PM

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