Analyst upgrades:

• Thomas Weisel upgraded PerkinElmer (NYSE: PKI) to Overweight from Market Weight on valuation as it sees limited downside to consensus estimates. The firm raised its target on shares to $20 from $18.
• Jefferies upgraded WuXi PharmaTech (NYSE: WX) to Hold from Underperform following the Q2 results as it believes the company's cross-selling strategy is paying off. The firm raised its target on shares to $12 from $5.
• FBR Capital upgraded J. Crew (NYSE: JCG) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect the company's trend-right product, inventory control, unit growth, and strong management. The firm raised its target on shares to $36 from $25.
• Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley.
• Pan American Silver (NASDAQ: PAAS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• HearUSA (AMEX: EAR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Roth Capital.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
• Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

The fertilizer sector is one sector that investors who can tolerate moderate risk should not pass up.

I'm Reiterating a Buy recommendation for Potash (NYSE: POT), re-established with a Buy recommendation here on March 31, 2009, and for Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), re-established here on April 3, 2009; and adding a Buy recommendation for Agrium (NYSE: AGU).

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT - option chain) shares have jumped higher today after the company announced it will cut potash output in 2009 by 2 million tonnes (metric tons), or about 20%, due to weakening demand. Competitor Agrium (NYSE: AGU) also announced production cuts today, which is helping to send agricultural futures higher. Lower production levels could keep prices from falling further. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on POT.

POT opened this morning at $63.90. So far today the stock has hit a low of $63.26 and a high of $68.95. As of 12:15, POT is trading at $68.59, up 6.73 (10.9%). The chart for POT looks bullish and S&P gives POT a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.4% return in just five weeks as long as POT is above $45 at January expiration. POT would have to fall by more than 34% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

POT hasn't been below $47.50 at all in the past year and has shown support around $62 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in POT or AGU.

The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.

Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.

Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.

As October -- what has been one of the spookiest ever -- comes to an end today, many will go home this evening to face the ultimate challenge: Trick or Treat.

In the market in the past month, heck, in the past year, it seems that no matter what we did we always ended with a trickster. Even some of the most stable, beloved stocks found it fitting to lose half their value. If it was market darling Apple, or whole sectors like oil and commodities, stocks in general sank, often setting new 52-week lows, multi-year lows, or even all-time lows during October.

So now, with so many stocks beaten down so much, we have to find which could be the next treat, and which the tricks.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is the only Dow Jones Industrial company that is actually up this year. Investors have assumed that as the recession hits harder shoppers will turn to lower-cost venues such as Wal-Mart -- a trend that has already started. WMT shares are up 15% year-to-date and 21% over the past year, after tumbling 8% during the tough month of October. Wal-Mart -- definitely a treat.

General Electric (NYSE: GE) has exposure to the financial crisis through its financial arm and has been punished accordingly with shares down 20% over the past month alone. But is it time to buy GE? The big conglomerate is cutting costs and keeps reiterating guidance and has also maintained its triple-A rating. Could there be losses hidden in its operations? Maybe, but if it could continue growing as it did, it seems pretty cheap at under $20. Mind you, this one has never been a high-flying stock, and the uptick in the share price could take some time. Still, I'd categorize it a treat now.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU), North America's third largest fertilizer producer, closed at $38.78 Thursday. AGU November option implied volatility of 113 is above its 26-week average of 70 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Potash (NYSE: POT) closed at $84.71 Thursday. POT November option implied volatility of 102 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA), a producer of nitrogen products, closed at $21.82 Thursday. TRA November option implied volatility of 110 is above its 26-week average of 80, suggesting larger price movement.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), a producer of crop nutrients, closed at $37.81 Thursday. MOS November option implied volatility of 109 is above its 26-week average of 76 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movements.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

U.S. stock futures were flat to lower Thursday morning following the senate approval of its version of the $700 billion bailout package. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said it was considering a rate cut. Following all the economic data released Wednesday indicating the U.S. is in a recession, this isn't surprising. The ECB is also meeting today to consider its move. Today, the Labor Department will report weekly initial jobless claims and the Commerce Department will release August factory orders. Regulators also extended the ban on short-selling shares of some 800 financial companies.

UBS (NYSE: UBS), which has been hard hit by the credit crisis, said Thursday it expects to return to profit in the third quarter after four quarters of losses. The bank has substantially reduced its exposure to U.S. commercial and residential mortgages. The bank wrote down more than $40 billion and raised close to $30 billion.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) shares are down about 20% in pre-market trading after it missed analyst estimates when it reported its fiscal first-quarter earnings.

Marriott International (NYSE: MAR) was expected to report earnings of 32 cents a share in the third quarter. The company reported 34 centsearnings per share excluding an 8 cents adjustment.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the writing's on the wall, so position yourself accordingly.

If the ethanol mandate is scratched, what will that do to Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take) and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take)?

Here's the answer every hedge fund knows: It will not let you raise numbers in the out years.

Right now there is a tremendous struggle going on about near-term and far-term earnings growth and what we can expect to see. Everyone knows when Mosaic and Potash report next week that the numbers will be beaten and the estimates raised.

Everyone knows that the numbers will be far better than whatever drove Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) up 80% in less than a fortnight, that doubled Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take).

But so what? If you scrap the ethanol mandate or if people even think that it will be scrapped, you will see grains collapse just as quickly as oil collapsed when we found a level we didn't need it -- remember, we don't "need" ethanol, but it is mandated.

Once again it's ugly out there today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below 11,000 for the first time in two years, plunging over 2%. The rest of the U.S. stocks are not far behind with both the Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 down over 2% as well. It's depressing. But you don't have to look far to see a nicer picture, you just have to look up: up north that is.

The Toronto Stock Exchange has fared much better in what has officially become a U.S. bear market. Over the past year, while the S&P 500 sank over 19%, the S&P/TSX Composite index dropped only 3.4%. Year-to-date, while the S&P 500 declined over 16%, the TSX was barely down 1%. And if you stay away from financials on the TSX, you'd fare even better.

How so, you ask, doesn't the Canadian economy closely follows the U.S.'s? It's mostly true as the U.S. is Canada's biggest trading partner and the Canadian economy is intertwined with that of the U.S. For example, some of the layoffs at GM and Ford plants have occurred in Ontario plants, and Canada's unemployment rate edged up to 6.2% in June due to a drop in full-time jobs.

The thing is, though, that the TSX is heavily weighted in mining and oil & gas companies, sectors that have fared better than techs and financials the past year or so. Getting exposure to the Canadian market is very easy since many stocks also trade on U.S. exchanges, the famous of all may be Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM). But there are others, and some of them, the U.S. investor may want to consider.

Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models that have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. Moreover, there are few more-favorable global trends than food production, and with the above in mind, Agrium is worth a review.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is the No. 1 producer and seller of fertilizers in North America, including nitrogen, as well as potash and phosphate products.

The company has an 8-million-ton nutrient production capacity, but production is only half the equation: AGU also has more than 400 retail outlets in the U.S. and South America -- the back-end side of the revenue equation.

The top U.S. retailer of crop supplies, Agrium's products are also sold in Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Asia. Analysts really like AGU's plan to expand, and hopefully double, this $2 billion revenue stream within five years, stemming from emerging market demand. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for AGU are $8.21/$9.53.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is a leading producer and marketer of agricultural nutrients, in North and South America. The firm's plants can produce more than eight million tons of fertilizers per year. These are sold to wholesale distributors and through more than four hundred company retail outlets. Agrium also participates in a joint venture with Repsol YPF (NYSE: REP), operating Argentina's largest nitrogen plant. Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is a major competitor.

The company pleased investors last week, when it raised its Q2 EPS guidance from $1.92-$2.22 to $2.80-$3.00. The Street had been expecting $2.50. Management attributed the positive outlook to strong global crop prices and the resulting solid performances by both its retail and wholesale operations. BMO Capital Markets subsequently reiterated its "outperform" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $125.

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) increased Q2 guidance to $2.80-$3.00 vs. prior estimates of $1.92-$2.22.

• AGU is hosting an analyst meeting today.
  
• AGU closed at $100.13 Wednesday.
  
• RBC Capital has a $115 price target on AGU.
  
• AGU June & July option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the market's a mess, but the S&P oscillator and buyout offers could give an opportunity for trades.

Here we are again. Another unfathomable moment to buy stocks.

You have the financials just falling apart at the seams.

Oil and the grains are out of control.

The Fed chairman and the Treasury secretary have declared the worst is over even as we await the demise of a half-dozen banks, and we question the solvency of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). The only stocks working are Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take), Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take), Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take) and a handful of natural gas companies.

It's crazy out there.

And yet my best indicator, the Standard & Poor's oscillator, which you can order from their Web site, is saying you cannot be short here and should be doing some buying. The oscillator, when it has been at minus 5, has called a bottom almost every time in the last decade, plus or minus a day or two, and a percent or even two, and I have long since learned not to see through it.

"We think we've seen the worst and will likely see some improvement in the economy going forward," says growth stock specialist Harry Domash, editor of Winning Investing.

Among his buy recommendations, the advisor looks at two agriculture plays: Agrium (NYSE: AGU), a producer of fertilizers, and the diversified exchange-traded fund, PowerShares DB Commodity (ASE: DBC).

"Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Agrium is a major North American producer and marketer of fertilizers. Agrium operates plants in Canada, the U.S., and in Argentina. Its major product is nitrogen fertilizer but it also makes potash and phosphate products.

"Agrium sells to wholesalers and through more than 800 company-owned retail stores in the U.S., Canada, and South America. Its stores also sell seed and other farm supplies.

"Agrium just recently completed its acquisition of UAP Holding, which had operated 370 distribution and storage facilities North America. Everything related to agriculture is booming, and Agrium, not counting its UAP acquisition, is growing sales around 30% annually.