U.S. stock futures were significantly lower Friday morning, a day after the Dow industrials had already plunged 678 points. The Dow dropped 21% in the past 10 days. U.S. stock markets are looking to join the plunge in global markets as Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 9.6%, Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 7%, London's FTSE 100 declined 5.5% and the German DAX 30 was down 8% to name but a few that have managed to remain open. Some global markets actually had to close today, prompting the name "Black Friday."
Wednesday's coordinated rate cut didn't seem to loosen frozen credit markets as investors seem to completely lose confidence in the world's financial system. Finance officials from the G7 are meeting in Washington Friday to address the financial meltdown. On the economic front, August trade data and September import prices will be released. Oil prices plummeted to a one-year low of $82 a barrel.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) -- meanwhile this morning, GE reported results that met the lowered expectations. GE's profit fell 22% to $4.3 billion, or 43 cents per share, compared with $5.56 billion, or 54 cents, a year earlier. GE's revenue climbed 11% to $47.23 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast earnings of 45 cents a share on revenue of $47.34 billion. GE recently got a $3 billion infusion from Buffett's Berkshire and raised $12.2 billion through a stock offering. Shares of GE are down about 1% in pre-market trading.
AIG (NYSE:AIG) has now borrowed $70 billion of the $123 billion made available to it by the Fed. It has to sell assets to become self-funding and the question is whether it can do that quickly in a credit crisis. If not, the government will be faced with putting more money into the insurer or watching it fail. Given the seriousness of an AIG failure and the waves of financial problems it would send though the markets, the Fed is probably on the hook for whatever AIG needs.
In the banking part of the US economy, banks and brokerages took record levels of loans from the Fed's emergency discount window. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Total average daily borrowing climbed to $420.16 billion from $367.80 billion in the prior week." If banks stocks continue to fall and depositors continue to withdraw money, the pressure on the Fed's lending facility may grow. Average daily lending could certainly move well above $500 billion per day.
Lending money to banks may not be an adequate measure to keep them sound. The Treasury needs to start buying banks shares as quickly as possible becoming a major stockholder in financial companies in exchange for billions of dollars in capital This process needs to begin immediately so that the system does not move through serial collapses of its weakest companies like Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Wachovia (NYSE: WB).
Time for the Fed and Treasury to step up to the plate.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The government takeover ofAmerican International Group(NYSE: AIG) is going swimmingly -- for AIG's top brass. They got an $85 billion bridge loan in exchange for an 80% equity stake last month. AIG has already spent $61 billion of that $85 billion and will now get another $37.8 billion.
But wait -- there's more. AIG executives spent $440,000 for a spa vacation at the St. Regis resort in Monarch Beach, CA after they got our $85 billion. If you clicked on the link to the St. Regis, you know that AIG goes in style. That's why it came as no surprise that it was planning another ritzy affair for its insurance brokers. That event, at the Ritz Carlton in California's Half Moon Bay, was going to "motivate and educate" 150 independent agents who sell AIG coverage. (Update: They planned a big sales conference at the Ritz-Carlton in Half Moon Bay, but just cancelled it after public complaints). See how well reverse-Robin-Hood economics works?
Is there any business reason for AIG to be burning through so much of our cash? It claims that it needs the money because of its securities lending business, which lent securities to hedge funds and got the value of the securities and a fee in exchange. AIG then used the cash to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
A cool $85 billion ought to be enough to save any company. That is what the government loaned AIG (NYSE: AIG), the beleaguered insurance company. The money is supposed to be paid back and the Fed got an 80% interest in the firm.
But the $85 billion did not cut it. Yesterday, the government had to come up with another $37.8 billion. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "The move, which comes less than a month after the Federal Reserve agreed to bail out the giant insurer, raises questions about whether the government will need to keep injecting money into the troubled company."
It actually raises a much bigger issue than that one. If AIG cannot get by on the $85 billion it got just last week, how much worse is its position getting and how fast? Since AIG is only one of many large financial companies with problems, why isn't it fair to ask whether the Treasury's $700 billion bailout program will be enough?
The AIG trouble shows that the government's aid to the financial system is a slippery slope. US taxpayer money goes into a failing system. As the credit crisis gets worse, the Fed and Treasury feel the need to double down. Gamblers and investors who take that path often find out that they lose everything, their initial investment and money that came later to protect it.
If AIG needs more money, it is a good bet that the rest of the system will need more as well.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
U.S. stock futures turned higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, in a coordinated move with other central banks, cut rates by half a point to 1.5%, in an effort to help credit markets and boost financial markets. Before the rate cut, futures were lower as Wall Street was about to join global markets in a world-wide plunge that saw the Nikkei down 9.4% and European main markets down 5-6%. On the economic front, August pending home sales released later today might crimp the mood somewhat.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicked off earnings season after the close Tuesday. The world's third-largest aluminum producer reported a 52% drop in third quarter profit as sharply lower aluminum prices and lower demand hurt results. AA shares are down 4% in pre-market trading.
American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) -- in what could only be described as unbelievable nerve, days after the $85 billion federal bailout loan, AIG spent $440,000 on a posh California retreat for its executives that included spa treatments and much more. Lawmakers were enraged over the thousands of dollars AIG spent on executives even as the company was staving off bankruptcy. It seems it is morally bankrupt. AIG stock is recovering 5.4% this morning after the rate cut.
After receiving an $85 billion taxpayer bailout, you would think that the executives at AIG (NYSE: AIG) might have moderated their lavish lifestyles and behaved like the de facto civil servants that they now are.
But during a House Oversight Committee hearing, Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md, described what actually happened: a vacation:
After the bailout of AIG last month, the United States government effectively bought an 80% share in the company. That should have caused a fundamental change, you would think, in how the company was spending funds on compensation, bonuses and benefits.
Republican John McCain has failed to convince the majority of Americans that Barack Obama is a tax-and-spend liberal who lacks the intestinal fortitude to face our country's enemies. In a show of desperation, the Arizona Republican and his running-mate Sarah Palin are now trying to link Obama with former Weathermen leader William Ayers, even though the New York Times and other news organizations have pointed out that the two men knew each other casually. That's why tonight's debate in Nashville is critical.
McCain, who is favored by many investors, is facing some pretty daunting odds. According to the latest NBCNews/Wall StreetJournal poll, 49 percent of voters said they would vote for Obama compared with 43 percent for the Arizona senator. That's up from a two-point advantage two weeks ago and mirrors other polls, according to the Journal. To be fair, the survey does have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Obama has wiped away McCain's lead with independent voters.
Investors should not underestimate the anger in the hearts of voters. The credit crisis has wiped out tens of billions of dollars in value to the retirement nest eggs of the American people. Most people don't understand why the government needed to extend a $700 billion lifeline to the financial services industry. They become even angrier when three former chief executives of American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) blame one another like a bunch of two-year-olds for the firm's collapse. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping below 9,500 scares them even further.
It is against this backdrop we are holding this election. Obama has been able to convince voters, including this one, that he can deliver tax relief for the middle class. But Democrats should not rejoice quite yet. McCain excels at these town hall meetings. Moreover, some of Obama's support in polls comes from people who are too embarrassed to admit that they don't want to vote for an African-American candidate.
Americans crave leadership during these times of economic crisis. Since Wall Street has failed to provide, it's unfortunately up to our elected officials.
The banking system has been crumbling for over a year, but last month's collapse of American International Group (NYSE: AIG) -- which prompted an $85 billion government takeover -- suggests that insurance is not immune from the problems. As a reminder, AIG got snared in the $62 trillion Credit Default Swap (CDS) market whose growth was spurred by McCain advisor, Phil "Americans are Whiners" Gramm.
Bank of America'searnings plunged 68% to $1.18 billion, or $0.15/share -- missing by 60% analysts' forecast of 62 cents. Bank of America will raise capital by selling $10 billion of common stock and slashing its dividend in half from 64 cents to 32 cents. One analyst cut the bank's 2009 earnings estimate to $2.50 per share from $3 per share -- this is well below the $3.12 per share from a Thomson Reuters analyst poll -- and lowered his price target by $2 to $26.
National City Corp. and its National City Bank both suffered debt downgrades from Fitch. For instance, Fitch slashed the bank subsidiary's long and short-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to A- from A. And it lowered the bank and holding company's Individual rating to C from B.
Investors shuddered in horror as the market was dropping; with the Dow down 800 points in midday trading and finally closing at a better but still dismal 9,955.50, off -369.88or -3.58%.
So, on this terrible day what if anything made a good showing of itself? Four stocks among the ones that I follow popped up.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) closed at $98.14, up 1.07, or1.10%. Apple needs no introduction to most readers of BloggingStocks or anyone breathing almost anywhere on the planet. Although the stock appears to be a fallen star for the time being and is down 51% for the year it managed to outshine almost everything else today. Apple has not traded at a P/E below it's projected growth rate in years so the bargain hunters were obviously interested.
East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) closed at $15.69, up0.61, or4.05%. Some banking stocks are recovering nicely and this small California bank with business in the Asian community here and in China as well seems to be getting out from under the taint of the sector. It is one of the stocks I included in Chasing Value: Financial devastation? Still up but less. If I had to 'bank' on whether this stock is higher or lower in a years time I would say higher.
After Monday, there are probably no more doubters left. We are in a bear market and we are in a recession and anyone arguing otherwise is living in a made-up world. The only thing left to argue over is how to get out of this dire situation, and how long it will last. Looking at stocks since the beginning of the year, and over the past month since the feds seized Fannie and Freddie, the picture isn't pretty. Many familiar names have vanished, many -- luckily -- have just seen their market value cut about in half. What once were some large stocks are now some of the smaller ones, including some DJIA components.
The following list is of selected familiar names and large stocks that have plunged significantly over these time periods. It does not include the obvious names such as AIG, Wachovia, GM and the likes, but decent stocks we all liked and knew over the years. By comparison, the Dow industrials is down 25% year-to-date, the S&P 500 down 28% during the same time and the Nasdaq Composite down nearly 30%. Over the past month (since the Fannie/Freddie rescue), the Dow declined over 11%, the S&P 500 declined nearly 15% and the Nasdaq declined over 17%.
Alcoa (NYSE: AA) -- aluminum giant Alcoa is feeling the pains of a global economic slowdown and higher costs even as aluminum prices remain high. Alcoa shares hit a 10-year low Monday. YTD, AA market value has been cut in half, and over the past month alone Alcoa lost 36% of its value.
American Express (NYSE: AXP) -- the credit card company had large exposure to bad loans that affected its results. With analysts expecting credit card debt to be the next shoe to drop, AXP may see its stock fall more than the 42.2% it already has YTD. It plunged 23.68% this past month.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) -- even this consumer tech darling couldn't escape the claws of the bears as worries over demand for its products increased. AAPL, one of the stocks that actually had a positive day Monday and closed at $98.14, is down 50.45% YTD, 38.73% this past month.
With rumors of bankruptcy swirling, the shares of Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE: HIG) have plunged over the past few weeks. Hey, if AIG (NYSE: AIG) can implode, why not the others?
Well, the death of Hartford has been greatly exaggerated. Today, the company announced that it received a $2.5 billion capital infusion from Allianz, a mega German financial firm. Despite today's huge drops in the markets, Hartford's shares spiked 16% to $31.88.
The deal is certainly beneficial to Allianz, which gets preferred stock (that converts to common shares at $31 a piece) as well as junior subordinated debentures (there are also warrants to buy $1.75 billion of Hartford at $25.32). Yet, it's still a nice boost for Hartford.
Essentially, Hartford has an extensive portfolio of investments, which have suffered declines (it looks like the recent carnage in hedge funds was a big contributor). In fact, the company believes that there will be a Q3 loss of $8.50 to $8.80 per share.
But, with the capital infusion, Hartford should weather the storm – as well as be positioned to deal with possible credit downgrades (there will be $3.5 billion in excess capital). What's more, there may be opportunities to capitalize on the wreckage. After all, AIG is preparing to sell a large number of assets.
Let it be written that on the sixth day of October in the year 2008, the irrational exuberance that defined the 1990s came screeching to a halt.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 10,000 this morning for the first time since 2004. Gosh, it seems like only yesterday that investors were as giddy as school girls when the leading stock market indicator crossed that once-unthinkable benchmark. Remember the Dow 10,000 hats? I bet the people who bought them along with other keepsakes of better times plan to unload them on eBay so they can fill up their tanks with gas. In fact, some people have already started selling bull market memorabilia. A Lehman Brothers coffee mug is available on eBay for $14.99, while the book Dow 36,000 is attracting no bidders for the bargain-basement price of $1.93.
These are lousy times. The real estate market continues to suck wind. Holiday retail sales are expected to be their worst in years. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of federal bailouts have failed to unfreeze the credit market or provide any relief for homeowners hurt by the subprime crisis. A good part of the market's downturn can be blamed on lax corporate governance, including outrageous CEO pay.
Everything is upside down these days. The folks with all the money and multi-million dollar bonuses are begging for a handout on the pretext that the economy will crash if they do not get one. We're not talking money for coffee or a snack, we're talking billions of dollars.
It is crashing anyway, or at least sinking. It is just a matter of what it takes down along the way. Apparently, the folks at the Treasury and Federal Reserve are now convinced that it will be everything.
Sadly, only the federal government was big enough to swallow the problems of American International Group (NYSE: AIG), Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). Otherwise,those in the know think world financial markets would have crumbled due to the collateral damage, (pun intended).
When I posted Congress is screwing up -- think backstop not bailout!, I was concerned with the psychological effect as much as the financial effect of not approving the funding, but no doubt the people suffering the most are not those who created the pain.
Citigroup (NYSE: C) claims it has gotten a judge to block a potential merger between Wachovia (NYSE: WB) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). The big New York bank claims it had a deal to snap up WB, and was done wrong.
According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "State Supreme Court Justice Charles Ramos issued the order blocking the sale of Wachovia Corp., which Wells Fargo & Co. had agreed to purchase in a $14.8 billion deal."
The FDIC says it will step in to help resolve the issue. But, the question is "who is served" by the broader implications of the fight. Having three of the nation's largest financial firm in a dispute during the greatest banking crisis in decades would push Wachovia, already troubled, into greater peril while the fight goes on. It could continue for months when fast action may be the only way to keep Wachovia from failing.
The Treasury has already intervened by pushing banks to merge and nationalizing or taking large financial stakes in companies including AIG (NYSE: AIG). It needs to step into the Wachovia situation before the bank gets into such deep trouble that it is not worth buying.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 245wallst.com.
U.S. stock futures are higher, indicating stocks will likely continue their wild ride today, but perhaps end the week on a positive note. All this as Wachovia found another buyer, and ahead of the vote in the House on the bailout plan and payroll data. Economists expect payrolls to have dropped 110,000 in September, while unemployment rate should stay at 6.1%. September non-manufacturing ISM will also be released today.
Wachovia Corp. (NYSE: WB) dumped Citigroup (NYSE: C) and the deal arranged by the FDIC, instead announcing it signed a definitive agreement for a merger with Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) that includes all of Wachovia's banking operations. WB shares are jumping 66% in pre-market trading, WFC up 2.4%, C down 6.6%.
UBS (NYSE: UBS) - fitting that on a day when payrolls are expected to show such a big drop UBS said it is cutting another 2,000 jobs at its troubled investment bank and closing most of its commodities business.
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), however, said Thursday it isn't considering job cuts. But the comany continues to struggle in the current environment, looking for ways to further cuts costs and restructure operations. So job cuts may be on the agenda after all. YHOO stock set a new 52-week low of $15.54 Thursday, but this morning is up 2.7% in pre-market trade.