The conventional wisdom is that consumer spending is what drives the U.S. economy. And consumer spending arises out of consumer confidence. Unfortunately, the signals along the road to economic recovery are mixed, what with the rising GDP growth and the dismal unemployment numbers. Its enough to leave investors scratching their heads. What barometers of consumer confidence will the coming week bring?

The TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is scheduled for Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is due out Friday.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII) to Buy from Hold after channel checks indicated the company's sales trends improved through September. The firm raised its target on shares to $49 from $33.
• Jefferies upgraded Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) to Hold from Underperform after channel checks indicated IT spending will be strong in the second half of 2009, but the firm finds the stock fully valued at current levels. Jefferies raised its target on shares to $40 from $32.
• Pali Captital upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) to Buy from Neutral on valuation and expectations that lower pricing and international growth will be catalysts going forward. The firm set a $45 price target on shares.
• Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Advanced Micro (NYSE: AMD) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• PPD Inc. (NASDAQ: PPDI) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.

September same-store sales are rolling in this Thursday morning, and the news for the teen/tween retailers may hold some hope. Leading off the clothing genre is American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), which posted perhaps the best news in the group. Of course, by best news I mean that AEO's sales didn't drop as much as people predicted.

The retailer had flat same-store sales in September, at the top end of its forecast range for a drop of 4.1% to flat sales. Thing is, these results will probably spur a bit of a rally for the stock, mainly because they weren't as bad as they could have been.

There's a difference between a CEO that's paid well and one that's raking in loot he clearly doesn't deserve. The former may invoke a bit of ire in this economic climate, but when cooler heads prevail, the cash laid out is usually but a rounding error on the increases in market cap he's driven. An overpaid CEO, on the other hand ... well, it's a bit harder to justify the inflated package.

Kerri Chyka over at CNN Money reports that the Corporate Library sifted through the bloated and legit packages out there to let us know which top dogs are rolling in dough that should probably be left in the company coffers.

1. Michael Jeffries, Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF)
Last year, Michael Jeffries made $71.8 million in total, with a base salary of $1.5 million, according to corporate governance research firm, the Corporate Library. It even included a $6 million retention bonus ... because you want to hang on to a guy who the research firm calls one of the five "Highest Paid Worst Performers" of 2008. If that stings, Jeffries can hop on the Abercrombie corporate jet instead of running away. He's paid better than 75% of rival CEOs, while the share price generally underperformed them.

2. James W. Stewart, BJ Services Company (NYSE: BJS)
James Stewart had a good year in 2008, as it outperformed most of its peers, and he nailed a $34.6 million package. In all fairness, $30 million came from the value realized on stock options. The four years that preceded Stewart's strong performance, on the other hand, were lackluster. The future, it seems, is immaterial, as Baker Hughes picked up BJ Services last month, and Stewart will probably be out the door at the end of the year, when the deal closes.

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) is being sued by a Muslim teenager who wanted to work at an Abercrombie Kids store in Oklahoma's Woodland Hills Mall. When she applied in June 2008, Samantha Elauf was told that the hijab she wears is inconsistent with Abercrombie's "Look Policy." So, the 17-year-old took her concerns to U.S. District Court on Wednesday, where a lawsuit was filed by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.

A spokeswoman for the retailer wouldn't comment on the lawsuit but did indicate that the store has a strong policy around equal employment opportunity and that it accommodates religious practices "when possible."

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) earnings prospects and declining sales resulted in a downgrade.
• America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) stronger-than-expected Q1 results led shares to a four-year high.
• ArcSight Inc. (NASDAQ: ARST) reported strong Q1 numbers on increasing demand for cyber security.
• Brown-Forman Inc. (NYSE: BF.B) Q1 results easily topped expectations despite a decline in revenue.
• Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) posted a Q3 loss but revenue improved sequentially, and shares rose.

Analyst upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded CTC Media (NASDAQ: CTCM) to Buy from Neutral on a better outlook for European Media names and raised its target on shares to $17.60 from $12.
• Morgan Joseph upgraded Movado (NYSE: MOV) to Buy from Hold after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results. The firm set a $16 target on the stock.
• Needham upgraded LTX Credence (NASDAQ: LTXC) to Strong Buy from Hold following the company's Q4 results with a $3 price target.
• Canon (NYSE: CAJ) was upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Macquarie.
• Whitney Holding (NASDAQ: WTNY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust.
• Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect upcoming catalysts and the company's opportunity in subsalt. FBR raised its target on shares to $60 from $50.
• Citigroup upgraded Marvel (NYSE: MVL) to Hold from Sell on expectations the acquisition by Disney (NYSE: DIS) will close. The firm raised its target on shares to $50 from $31.
• JPMorgan upgraded Cubic (NYSE: CUB) to Overweight from Neutral on expectations the company will benefit from the Vix ERG acquisition and increased sales visibility. The firm raised its target on shares to $43 from $38.
• Siemens (NYSE: SI) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein.
• Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Thompson Creek (NYSE: TC) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) announced on Thursday that its same-store sales plummeted 29% in August. These results were worse than the expected drop of 23.9%.

Sales in all of its divisions were worse than expected, with sales at the Abercrombie & Fitch flagship store plunging 26%. Sales dropped 32% at Hollister, 37% at Ruehl (which will close at the year's end), and 26% at the company's children's retail outlet.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Cooper Industries (NYSE: CBE) to Buy from Hold on valuation as it believes commercial construction concerns are well known. The firm raised its target on shares to $40 from $37, and coupled the upgrade with a downgrade of Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK) to Sell from Hold.
• Credit Suisse upgraded BJ Services (NYSE: BJS) to Neutral from Underperform following its acquisition by Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI). The firm raised its target to $17.
• Credit Suisse also upgraded Amkor Technology (NASDAQ: AMKR) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $8 from $7. The firm expects Amkor to benefit from near-term strength in the supply chain and the mix shift towards higher value packaging.
• Textron (NYSE: TXT) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Siemens (NYSE: SI) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
• Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery.

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), a fashion retailer that competes with Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), didn't do too well in Q2. Total sales went down 5%, and earnings per share on a GAAP basis fell a most awful 50% to 14 cents. According to Bloomberg, the adjusted earnings of 12 cents per share came up short of analyst expectations by three pennies.

Same-store sales hit the double-digit mark to the downside: they decreased 10%. Not a good number for this kind of business. Promotional markdowns helped to drive the gross margin down. The operating margin also took a hit.

Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), a retailer that competes with Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), and Gap (NYSE: GPS), posted what I thought was a superb second-quarter earnings summary on Thursday after the bell. The figures were very appealing, and I would've expected a better after-hours reaction by the stock to the news. Then again, the market can never be predicted. It will do whatever the heck it wants.

Net sales increased 20%. Not bad, am I right? Wait, check this out. Earnings per share came in at 57 cents, compared to the 31 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. According to Reuters, that was a penny ahead of expectations. But that penny beat on the bottom line isn't what impresses me the most. It's the strong per-share profit expansion that I find compelling.

Michael Jeffries, the CEO of struggling retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) recently told investors on a conference call that "Consumer spending patterns domestically continue to be dictated by cost and value propositions, and this is clearly a headwind for our premium brands."

Abercrombie has garnered headlines for its steadfast refusal to cut prices to keep up with lower-end competitors like Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), which is picking up market-share because of the recession. But that could be changing.

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) is such a funny stock story. The company reports what I thought was a quarter full of dire results, and the market still sends shares higher. They closed almost 4% higher, in fact, on Friday. I don't get it.

For the second quarter, sales decreased 23%, and the overall same-store sales statistic, which is a really important metric for retailers, sank 30%. A net loss of 30 cents per share was booked, mostly on the back of the discontinuation of the Ruehl business. Excluding the effect of the closure, Abercrombie made 8 cents per share, and that, according to Reuters, beat by a mile the expected loss of 7 cents per share.

Last week offered mixed messages about whether an economic recovery is indeed underway. The unemployment figures were not as bad as feared, but July sales numbers were nothing to write home about, despite the wild popularity of the so-called cash-for-clunkers program.

The question is, where has consumer confidence (and consumer spending) been? Retail is a good place to look, and as it turns out, this week several shopping mall and strip mall favorites will be reporting earnings for the most recent quarter.