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IHOP shows mixed results, some progress with Applebee's

When IHOP (NYSE: IHP) agreed acquire Applebee's nine months ago, Applebee's shareholders were none too pleased. Highly respected investor Sardar Biglari vocally opposed the deal, Applebee's director Burton Sack made plans to sue, and shares of IHOP rose more than Applebee's on the announcement -- a very rare occurrence.

But now things have changed as the restaurant industry has continued to weaken and shares of IHOP have lost a good chunk of their value. Applebee's competitors like Ruby Tuesday's (NYSE: RT) have plunged, and the deal is looking less well timed.

The company released its first quarter results this week and the Applebee's turnaround appears to be doing as well as could be expected given the environment -- the company saw the first quarter of positive same-store sales growth in two years. However, plans to sell and lease back some of the real estate that came with the deal has been "challenged by weakening credit market conditions." The plan to franchise more of the company-owned stores has made some progress.

Continue reading IHOP shows mixed results, some progress with Applebee's

Before the bell: GM, BSC, TIVO, YHOO, AAPL, F ...

Before the bell: Futures decline after oil surges, Sears reports

General Motors (NYSE: GM) was upgraded by Bear Stearns to Underperform from Peer Perform. GM shares are up 1.3% in premarket trading.

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) reported after the close yesterday, posting a third-quarter narrower loss as service and technology revenue rose 11%. TiVo lost $8.2 million, or 8 cents a share, in the latest quarter, compared with a loss of $11.1 million or 12 cents a share in the prior year. Analysts expected a loss of 4 cents per share. TIVO shares are gaining over 10% in premarket trading.

Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE: BSC) yesterday announced a 4% cut in its staff. Observers feels this cold be a prelude to other investment banks to cull their ranks before bonuses are handed out.

Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) and Yahoo Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) announced late yesterday they are partnering to run ads on Adobe's PDF documents developed from its prominent Acrobat software.

Continue reading Before the bell: GM, BSC, TIVO, YHOO, AAPL, F ...

Analyst initiations: Restaurant sector, AMSC and FSLR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The restaurant sector, American Semiconductor and First Solar were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Friedman Billings resumed coverage of Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) with Outperform ratings and a $30 target and a $46 target and Applebee's (NASDAQ: APPB) with a Market Perform rating and $25.50 target.
  • American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $33 target at Jefferies, as they believe repeat orders for wind turbine electrical systems could drive rapid revenue growth from 2008-2010.
  • CIBC resumed coverage of First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) with a Sector Performer rating, as they believe shares are already pricing in the company's 2009 EPS potential.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of Cablevision (NYSE: CVC) with an Underweight rating.
  • US Steel (NYSE: X) was initiated with a Sector Performer rating and $117 target at CIBC.
  • JP Morgan started SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) with an Overweight rating and Evergreen Solar (ESLR) with a Neutral rating.

Applebee's director to sue for money in IHOP deal

Applebee's International, Inc. (NASDAQ: APPB) director Burton Sack, who is the company's largest individual shareholder with 3.2% of the stock, is planning to ask a Delaware court to award him more money for his shares of the company that has agreed to be acquired by IHOP Corp. (NYSE: IHP).

Sack says he will seek to assert his appraisal rights, which allow him to have a court evaluate whether the deal provides full value to shareholders. If the court agrees with Sack, he could be awarded more money.

The Applebee's deal has been controversial from the beginning. Back in July, I wondered whether the deal was fair, asking If IHOP wants it, should Applebee's sell it? Then respected investor Sardar Biglari announced his opposition to the deal, pointing out that shares of IHOP rose more than shares of Applebee's when the deal was announced. It is extremely unusual for an acquirer to rise more than the target. Then it emerged that five Applebee's directors, including the chairman, CEO, and CFO had all opposed the deal. Then a pension fund sued Applebee's, alleging that the merger agreement was unfair to shareholders. That suit was settled.

Given all this controversy, and the strong opposition of influential investors, it's amazing that the deal is still going through. In what could be an indication that Applebee's has stronger growth potential than the buyout price reflects, the company will be opening its first Chinese location this week.

Sadly, there don't appear to be any indications that the dissident directors will make a late push to block the deal, probably because such an effort would likely be futile.

Analyst downgrades: Mortgage finance sector, APPB, FTEK, BHP, AAUK and RTP

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The mortgage finance sector, Applebee's, Fuel-Tech, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Rio Tinto were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Lehman downgraded the mortgage finance sector to Negative from Neutral citing the potential of over $100B in losses for the group in the coming years. Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight; IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) and Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) were downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight.
  • Applebee's International (NASDAQ: APPB) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wachovia, as the firm sees potential downside risk if the company's acquisition of IHOP Corp (NYSE: IHP) does not go through, following mixed reviews from Proxy firms.
  • Merriman downgraded shares of Fuel-Tech (NASDAQ: FTEK) to Sell from Neutral after channel checks indicated the competitive landscape is much more challenging than commonly perceived for the FUEL CHEM product line. Merriman sees significant risk to shares at current levels.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Hold from Buy on valuation following the recent rally.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Applebee's (APPB) settles shareholder lawsuit

The ranks of discontented Applebee's International Inc. (NYSE: APPB) shareholders have been on the rise since the company announced that it would be acquired by IHOP (NYSE: IHP) in July. My first reaction was, If IHOP wants it, should Applebee's sell it? The deal gave Applebee's shareholders a paltry premium and shares of IHOP soared on news of the deal -- further confirmation that this was better news for IHOP shareholders than for Applebee's. In acquisitions, generally it's the opposite.

Then shareholder Sardar Biglari announced his opposition to the deal and Applebee's disclosed that five of its directors including its Chairman, CEO, and CFO opposed the deal.

Now Applebee's has settled a shareholder class-action lawsuit filed by the New Jersey Building Laborers Pension and Annuity Funds alleging that the merger agreement deprived Applebee's shareholders of the benefits they might have gotten if the casual restaurant chain had stayed independent or sold off its company-owned locations to franchisees, the Associated Press said. No money will exchange hands in the settlement. Applebee's has simply agreed to provide shareholders with greater disclosure about IHOP's post-deal plans for Applebee's.

Shares of Applebee's aren't acting as if traders expect the deal to be blocked or the price raised, but if either of those two things happens, shareholders should do quite well. Buying a few shares here looks like an interesting gamble, with a chance for profit if the anti-IHOP deal movement gains steam.

Applebee's (APPB) directors prove that corporate governance does still exist

Normally when a company announces a definitive agreement to be acquired, you can tell when it happened just from looking at the stock's chart. That's because takeovers usually happen at substantial premiums to the stock's most recent trading price. In the case of Applebee's International (NASDAQ: APPB), the premium when IHOP Corp. (NYSE: IHP) agreed to acquire the company was so small that it's not noticeable on the stock's chart.

I couldn't believe the Applebee's board would agree to such a deal, and it's refreshing to see that at least a few directors are none too pleased. According to DealBook, "Applebee's disclosed Thursday that five board members, including its chairman, its chief executive, and its chief financial officer, are opposed to the $1.9 billion sale. That wasn't enough to stop the board from approving the deal in July -- nine directors voted in favor -- but it represents an unusual level of internal opposition to a supposedly friendly deal."

I've been skeptical of the deal since it was announced. In July, I wrote that if IHOP's plan to revive the company would work, Applebee's shareholders would miss out on the upside by selling out now. Then investor Sardar Biglari acquired a small stake in the company and expressed his displeasure: "... we believe that if Applebee's undertook the same initiatives as IHOP has in mind, the appreciation IHOP recently gained would, at the very minimum, shift to Applebee's."

Perhaps this disclosure of dissenting directors (including the CEO, chairman, and CFO!) will spark a grass-roots campaign to block the deal, but the stock isn't trading like such a campaign would have much success.

Analyst downgrades: APPB, NT, NTAP and SAM

MOST NOTEWORTHY: CheckFree (CKFR), Talbots (TLB), SPSS Inc (SPSS), Network Appliance (NTAP) and Pozen Inc (POZN) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Following FiServ's (NASDAQ: FISV) acquisition of CheckFree, Raymond James cut CKFR shares to Market Perform from Strong Buy and Baird downgraded shares to Neutral from Outperform.
  • Talbots (NYSE: TLB) was cut to Sell from Hold at Citigroup based on valuation, continued earnings disappointments, and a lack of earnings visibility.
  • Cowen downgraded shares of SPSS Inc (NASDAQ: SPSS) to Underperform from Neutral citing decelerating growth and poor earnings quality.
  • Bear Stearns cut Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) to Underperform from Peer Perform on the negative Q1 pre-announcement. Pacific Crest downgraded shares to Sector Perform from Outperform.
  • After Pozen (NASDAQ: POZN) received a second approvable letter for Trexima, shares were downgraded by three firms:
    • To Neutral from Strong Buy at First Albany
    • To Hold from Buy at Jefferies and Lazard...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Sardar Biglari not too happy with Applebee's buyout

On July 17th, I had this to say about IHOP's (NYSE: IHP) deal to acquire to buy Applebee's (NASDAQ: APPB): "iHop shares soared on the news -- it's one of the only times I can think of that shares of an acquiring company have risen 3 times as much as those of the company being acquired. The premium was tiny -- the stock traded higher a month ago -- and represented a paltry return for the company's shareholders... I'm surprised none of the big institutional shareholders haven't spoken up yet."

Well none of the big institutional shareholders has spoken up, but a small yet feisty one has. Sardar Biglari, the Chairman and CEO of The Lion Fund and Western Sizzlin (OTC BB: WSZL), issued a press release blasting the deal:

Continue reading Sardar Biglari not too happy with Applebee's buyout

If IHOP wants it, should Applebee's sell it?

I wasn't too impressed with IHOP's (NYSE: IHP) decision to buy Applebee's (NASDAQ: APPB). But at the same time, I think Applebee's shareholders should be pretty upset. iHop shares soared on the news -- it's one of the only times I can think of that shares of an acquiring company have risen 3 times as much as those of the company being acquired. The premium was tiny -- the stock traded higher a month ago -- and represented a paltry return for the company's shareholders.

Today's Wall Street Journal asked the question Can iHOP Chief Restore Polish to Applebee's? According to the Journal:

IHOP Corp. Chief Executive Julia Stewart said she plans to revive Applebee's International Inc. by better distinguishing the chain from competitors, remodeling its restaurants and selling hundreds of company-owned locations to franchisees.

OK -- distinguishing the chain, remodeling, and emphasizing franchising. As Kevin Kelly wrote yesterday, it seems like a good idea, but the question is Why did Applebee's need to be sold to do that?

If Stewart's plan will work -- I doubt that it will because Applebee's will likely continue its decline as a brand -- Applebee's shareholders are getting the shaft.

I'm surprised none of the big institutional shareholders haven't spoken up yet.

IHOP picks up Applebee's

Before the bell, IHOP (NYSE: IHP) announced that it is purchasing Applebee's (NASDAQ: APPB) for about $1.9 billion - a 4.6% premium to Applebee's market value at the close on Friday. IHOP said it plans to franchise most of Applebee's company-owned restaurants. The deal is being paid for with credit that is being backed by Applebee's assets. Additional capital is from IHOP's securitization structure, according to the press release.

For those who haven't followed the IHOP story over the last couple of years, the company has essentially shifted strategies from the company-owned restaurant business to the franchising business. While I'm usually very skeptical of strategy shifts, this one actually makes tremendous sense because the franchising business is very lucrative and much less capital-intensive than the ownership business. In recent years, the company has trimmed its exposure to company-owned restaurants down to less than 1% of IHOPs. IHOP has been doing well implementing this plan and I believe it will be able to shift the Applebee's strategy successfully.

According to an AP article on the story, same-store sales are down more significantly at company-owned Applebee's than they are for franchisee-owned stores. This indicates that IHOP is correct in planning on franchising company owned stores because franchisers are more successfully running the restaurants than the company was able to.

Continue reading IHOP picks up Applebee's

Newspaper wrap-up 7-16-07: IHOP buying Applebee's

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:

IHOP gobbles up Applebee's

I'm not sure why IHOP want its, but it got it. IHOP (NYSE: IHP) has agreed to buy Applebee's (NASDAQ: APPB) for $25.50 a share, or $2.2 billion. The deal comes at a premium of just 4.6% to Friday's closing price, and stock traded above $26 as recently as last month. The deal probably won't be too pleasing to the company's major shareholders like Richard Breeden, who is credited with forcing the sale of the company.

But I'm not surprised by the low price the company fetched, and I've thought since the beginning that Breeden was barking up the wrong tree. On June 29th, I wrote about the epic tale of the Decline and Fall of Applebee's. Even company founder T.J. Palmer has blasted that company, saying that "It doesn't have anything that would make me want to come back."

Maybe IHOP can work some magic and turn the chain around, but it might be difficult. The company is financing the entire acquisition with debt, and may not be so quick to provide the face lift the restaurants so badly need.

But then again, IHOP's revenue in 2006 was lower than it was in 2002. So maybe this is a case of two drunken sailors trying to hold each other up. There's nothing much to get excited about for shareholders of either company.

Before the bell 7-16-07: Stocks may start lower

Stock futures indicate a lower start on Wall Street this morning after Friday's record close and last week's rally. As investors prepare for a bombardment of earnings this week, they also eye rising oil prices and the upcoming Fed chairman Bernanke's testimony this week.

Last week, U.S. stocks posted strong gains as they reached another record level when the Dow Jones Industrial Average came close to the 14,000 level (less than a hundred points to go). General Electric Co.'s (NYSE: GE) earnings and the rise in consumer-confidence helped boost sentiment.

Today, already Mattel (NYSE: MAT) reported earnings this morning that beat estimated profits by a cent.
This week, investors will get a chance to hear reports from many large caps on Wall Street, many of them tech and financials including Microsoft, Intel, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Google and Yahoo!. Eleven of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow industrials will report this week.

Also this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will give two days of semiannual testimony on U.S. monetary policy before Congress. No doubt, the housing market and inflation will be in focus, as well as the overall economy.

The key economic release today will be the July NY Empire State Index, a survey of manufacturing in the area, which is expected to have fallen. The release will be at 8:30 a.m.

Overseas, Asian shares mostly closed lower on Monday. European stocks rose for a third day in morning trading, but have changed direction in the past hour. The euro continued to gain against the dollar to yet another record high.

Corporate news:

It seems the consortium led by Royal Bank of Scotland will have a fresh bid as it raises the cash component of its €71.1 billion ($98 billion) bid for ABN Amro (NYSE: ABN).

IHOP Corp. (NYSE: IHP) said it would acquire fellow Applebee's International Inc. (NASDAQ: APPB) for about $1.9 billion in cash or $25.50 per share of Applebee's. The two sides pegged the total value of the deal at $2.1 billion.

Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE: VOD) is considering a $160 billion takeover bid for Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) according to the Financial Times. While there is no certainty this will go forward, Verizon shares rose 1.9% in premarket trading.
Update: Vodafone says it has no plans to bid for Verizon.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) denied reports in The Sunday Times that it is putting its Volvo unit up for sale and said it is not negotiating with anyone to sell the Swedish automaker.

Finally, Christopher Bancroft, part of the Bancroft family that controls Dow Jones (NYSE: DJ), is trying to block a takeover by News Corp. (NYSE: NWS).

BKC is trans-fat-free

Burger King Holdings (NYSE: BKC) announced today that it has started to roll-out its trans-fat-free cooking oil to its restaurants around the United States. Expectations for the fast-food giant to become trans-fat-free are slated for the year-end of 2008 and could be sooner if additional supplies of fat-free oil are available.

Burger King, known for its flame-broiled burgers, uses cooking oil for its French fries and the majority of its chicken products. The switch to trans-fat-free oil follows the steps of other fast food chains like McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX), Wendy's (NYSE: WEN), Applebee's (NASDAQ: APPB), Yum! Brands' (NYSE: YUM) KFC and Taco Bell units, and even Wal-Mart Stores' (NYSE: WMT) delicatessens.

Where did all the taste go?

"In tests on over a dozen core items, consumers determined that products cooked in trans fat-free oil tasted the same or better than products cooked in the traditional oil," according to a statement from Burger King's president of global marketing, strategy and innovation, Russ Klein.

Burger King is one of the last fast-food companies to address the issue of trans-fat, according to Bloggingstocks.com's Julie Tilsner. The Washington-based Center for Science in the Public Interest sued Burger King in May saying the company moved too slow and failed to set a time table for the removal of trans-fat from its restaurants.

Regardless of the taste, in order for consumers to eat the "healthier" fast-food products, investors will more than likely have to cough up a little more at the register -- the supply of trans-fat-free oil is limited.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 01:33 AM

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