Old Navy is back!

At least, that's what most media outlets are reporting. According to Associated Press, "the bad economy has been good for the chain's lower-price Old Navy brand, which was retooled last year to resume catering to frugal moms after an ill-fated foray into trendier fashions."

Analyst upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded Aeropostale (ARO) to neutral from sell. The firm, which has a $34 target on the stock, cites the recent sell-off in shares for the upgrade.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Consolidated Water (CWCO) to buy from neutral on valuation and on expectations the company's earnings will recover in 2010. The firm has a $15 target on the stock.
• Wunderlich upgraded Transmontaigne Partners (TLP) to buy from hold on valuation as it believes the sell-off on the company's Q3 results is overdone. The firm keeps a $26.50 price target on the stock.
• Mobile TeleSystems (MBT) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• HSBC (HBC) was raised to buy from hold at Societe Generale.
• Redwood Trust (RWT) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.

Analyst upgrades:

• Bernstein upgraded General Electric (NYSE: GE) to Outperform from Market Perform Thursday after the close. The firm sees an improved risk/reward on the stock and raised its price target to $19 from $18.
• Bernstein also upgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Outperform from Market Perform as it believes sales growth and margin expansion expectations are too low. The firm raised its target on shares to $160 from $125.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded CBS (NYSE: CBS) to Neutral from Underweight following the company's Q3 results and raised its target on shares to $13 from $12.
• JPMorgan upgraded Macy's (NYSE: M) to Overweight from Neutral to reflect the company's improving comps. The firm has a $23 target on the stock.
• Ansys (NASDAQ: ANSS) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
• Travelers (NYSE: TRV) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Air Methods (NASDAQ: AIRM) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.

Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO - option chain) stock is trading lower today after the company reported its same-store sales rose 3.0 percent in October, well below analysts' forecasts of 13.8 percent. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GE.

This morning, ARO opened at $34.50. So far today the stock has hit a high of $37.27 and a low of $32.05. As of 11:55, ARO is trading at $32.68, down $5.35 (-14.1%). The chart for ARO looks bullish and S&P gives ARO a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Analyst upgrades:

• Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Canaccord, which cited the company's strong Q1 results.
• Pali Capital raised T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ: TROW) to Neutral from Sell following the company's better-than-expected Q3 results.
• Under Armour (NYSE: UA) was upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna following positive checks ahead of the company's Tuesday's Q3 report.
• Stifel Nicolaus raised American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Buy from Hold, as the firm thinks the company is close to reaching "normalized" earnings.
• Goldman Sachs upgraded Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) to Sell from Conviction Sell.
• RBC Capital upgraded Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
• American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform by Pacific Crest.

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) to Outperform from Market Perform on expectations that derivatives trading will increase in the coming quarters.
• NutriSystem (NASDAQ: NTRI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Janney Montgomery, which believes that the company's earnings have hit bottom, while the company could report better-than-expected Q1 results.
• Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital. The firm thinks the company is an early-cycle story that has significant upside potential.
• UBS upgraded Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) to Buy from Neutral citing cost cutting efforts and slowing store growth.
• Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Benchmark Co.
• Safeway (NYSE: SWY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by BB&T.
• Needham upgraded Targacept (NASDAQ: TRGT) to Buy from Hold.
• Sierra Wireless (NASDAQ: SWIR) was raised to Buy from Hold at Jesup & Lamont.

Analyst upgrades:

• Piper Jaffray upgraded Viacom (NYSE:VIA) to Overweight from Neutral to reflect the improving ad market and better ratings at key cable networks. The firm raised its target on shares to $35 from $29.
  
• Baird upgraded Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) to Outperform from Neutral on valuation as it views the recent weakness as a buying opportunity. The firm keeps an $84 price target on shares.
  
• Jefferies upgraded Usana (NASDAQ:USNA) to Buy from Hold as it believes direct selling companies have been gaining momentum. The firm raised its target on shares to $44 from $37.
• AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  
• First Merit (NASDAQ:FMER) was upgraded to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
  
• Spectra Energy (NYSE:SE) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

September same-store sales are rolling in this Thursday morning, and the news for the teen/tween retailers may hold some hope. Leading off the clothing genre is American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), which posted perhaps the best news in the group. Of course, by best news I mean that AEO's sales didn't drop as much as people predicted.

The retailer had flat same-store sales in September, at the top end of its forecast range for a drop of 4.1% to flat sales. Thing is, these results will probably spur a bit of a rally for the stock, mainly because they weren't as bad as they could have been.

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) to Buy from Hold on expectations that stable volumes and a better outlook for currency and commodities will lead to higher earnings visibility. The firm raised its price target on shares to $62 from $52.
• FBR Capital upgraded Goodrich (NYSE: GR) to Outperform from Market Perform as it finds the stock's valuation compelling following the recent pullback. The firm raised its target on shares to $65 from $46.
• William Blair upgraded Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to Outperform from Market Perform after channel checks indicated demand is accelerating as the firm finds the stock's valuation compelling at current levels.
• Robbins & Myers (NYSE: RBN) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Viacom B (NYSE: VIA.B) were upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill, while News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

There are no sure-fire gains in trading or investing, even if the company's/sector's data is pointing to a move higher or lower. The short of Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), recommended on May 15, 2009 at a price of $31, has been stopped out at $42, and the short of Burger King (NYSE: BKC), recommended on the same day at a price of $17.35, has failed to make the new lows envisioned.

Aeropostale posted record Q2 results, and recently announced a 9% increase in August same-store sales, despite a cluttered sector (young-teenager casual apparel, accessories), and the "frugal consumer" era.

"With high-quality stocks on sale, now seems an opportune time to look for bargains among small and midcap blue chips," suggests Richard Moroney.

In his Upside Stocks advisory, which uses the quantitative-based Quadrix ratings system, he says, "We've found several 'Best Buys' with superior year-ahead potential."

Here, the analyst looks at Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), Catalyst Health (NASDAQ: CHSI) and Hornbeck Offshore (NYSE: HOS).

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) strong Q2 results beat expectations due to rising same-store sales.
• Agilent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: A) Q3 earnings topped low expectations and revenue declined.
• Analog Devices Inc. (NYSE: ADI) posted better-than-expected Q3 results but shares fell on weaker margins.
• Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) CEO said its new advertising efforts will boost sales over the long run.
• Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) had a better-than-expected Q2 profit but same-store sales fell.
• BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ) reported solid Q2 numbers and raised its full-year guidance.

Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), a retailer that competes with Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), and Gap (NYSE: GPS), posted what I thought was a superb second-quarter earnings summary on Thursday after the bell. The figures were very appealing, and I would've expected a better after-hours reaction by the stock to the news. Then again, the market can never be predicted. It will do whatever the heck it wants.

Net sales increased 20%. Not bad, am I right? Wait, check this out. Earnings per share came in at 57 cents, compared to the 31 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. According to Reuters, that was a penny ahead of expectations. But that penny beat on the bottom line isn't what impresses me the most. It's the strong per-share profit expansion that I find compelling.

Last week we looked at expectations for some retail earnings. More shopping mall favorites are reporting second-quarter results this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for significant earnings growth from some of them.

Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO), the teen-focused retailer spun off from Macy's (NYSE: M) in 1998, is expected to post a second-quarter profit that is 44.6% higher than a year ago, or $0.56 per share. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be 19.7% higher, or $451.3 million. For the full year, the forecast so far is for $2.98 per share (+25.8%) on $2.2 billion (+14.6%). Earnings of the New York-based company have matched estimates in recent quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 13.9%, which is better than the retail industry average and rival Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF). Aeropostale's earnings multiple is 12x, and this debt-free company's cash flow from operations swung into positive territory in the first quarter. The First Call consensus recommendation is to buy ARO; The Motley Fool identified it as a Wall Street favorite. Shares are down a couple of bucks from the 52-week high of $38.74 back in July, but are still 123.0% higher year to date.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the presumption remains that we're doing badly. I disagree and will place my bets.

As a bull who feels like he's "won" of late, I am about as sure of myself as a gambler who has just had a couple of blackjacks, meaning that I expect to be given a 16 any week now. That doesn't mean you can't play out of a 16, especially when the dealer's got something similar. It does mean you have to be at the table.

I use the analogy because there's something about the "hotness" of this market after the employment number that flies in the face of what could happen if the big gains in the economy truly are all government and not private sector, especially if you look at the charts, which reveal an overextended and expensive market. The charts say we're about to stall out, and it bothers me because they've said that all the way up. And it bothers me because literally everyone I respect in this business -- except Steve Leuthold -- has emerged with a consensus view that the economy without stimulation would be near collapse, and even with stimulation will collapse anyway because of all the debt taken down to stimulate.