Analyst Upgrades

• Diamond Offshore (DO) to conviction buy from sell and Baker Hughes (BHI) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Frontier Communications (FTR) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Syntel (SYNT) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo, to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank and to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) and Fiserv (FISV) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• 3M (MMM) to neutral from underweight and Tyco (TYC) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Collective Brands (PSS) and Nordstrom (JWN) to overweight from equal weight, as well as Foot Locker (FL) to equal weight from underweight, at Morgan Stanley.
• Amazon.com (AMZN) to buy from hold at Lazard Capital.
• Yamana Gold (AUY) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.

Gold futures have continued their quest for all-time highs today, and options players are reacting by opening new bullish bets on stocks within the precious metals sector. One such equity is Yamana Gold (AUY), which saw call volume ramp up to more than double its daily average by midday.

Within the first couple hours of the session, about 24,000 calls changed hands on AUY, easily outstripping its average daily volume of roughly 11,000 calls. The most active strike today is AUY's January 2011 15 call, with 4,079 contracts trading. The majority of these calls traded at the ask price, indicating they were most likely purchased. Not far behind is AUY's April 2011 20 call, where 2,774 contracts crossed the tape -- 78% at the ask price.

The Euro Currency Trust (EXE) is recently down 18c to 123.30. FXE June option implied volatility is 16, September is at 17. THis is above its 26-week average of 12, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) recently down 1.08 to 29.76. The 10-day moving average is 29.98, the 50-day is 20.14, and the 200-day moving average is 22.35.

Yamana Gold (AUY) is recently down 2c to 11.08. Gold is recently down 1.07% to $1,215.00, according to Bloomberg. AUY June put option implied volatility is at 46, July is at 49, October is at 48 vs. its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing track movement.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst Upgrades

• JPMorgan upgraded TiVo (TIVO) to overweight from neutral as it believes Thursday's appeal win against DISH Network could lead to revenue upside. The firm raised its target price for shares to $23 from $15.
• Collins Stewart upgraded DISH Network (DISH) to buy from hold on valuation, as it believes much of the impact from the negative appeals ruling is priced into the stock. The firm has a $30 target for shares.
• Cowen upgraded Ciena (CIEN) to outperform from neutral. The firm believes Ciena's acquisition of MEN is transformative and will accelerate top line growth.
• Progress Software (PRGS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Needham.
• Allergan (AGN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Lazard Capital.
• Public Service (PEG) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.

Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) closed at $11.79. Gold is recently up 0.40% to $1093.70 according to Bloomberg. AUY November option implied volatility is at 60; January is at 59; versus its 26-week average of 59, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Limited (NYSE: LTD) closed at $17.89. LTD reported comparable store sales decreased 2% for Q3. LTD is expected to report Q3 EPS on November 19. LTD November option implied volatility is at 60; December is at 56 above its 26-week average of 53, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

One of the hottest gold stocks is Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY).

With a share price that is affordable to the retail customer, smaller investors have been gobbling up shares in 2009.

But like AngloGold, the credit crisis knocked the wind out of the Yamana trade.

Shares actually were fairly valued when they bottomed below $5 per share. Now, with more than 100% recovery of that value, AUY trades above $10 per share. As a result, the valuation is way ahead of itself. Shares of AUY trade for more than 17 times trailing earnings and 18 times forward earnings. Gold prices would have to continue increasing by 15% to 20% per annum in order to justify these prices.

Gold at $1,000. Better buy now or you will miss the greatest invention since tulips in the 1800s.

Or so they say. I say, what a bunch of baloney. Why on earth would I want to put hard-earned cash on something that may look pretty but has no real tangible value?

That's right, gold has no tangible value. Well, that's not entirely true since there is a vast cult of worshipers out there that say gold is the only thing with value. As a result of their die-hard belief, gold actually does have value, as we now see with AU trading for $1,000 per ounce.

Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY - option chain) stock is falling today as gold futures are retreating from recent highs. Last week, front-month gold was approaching $1,000 quickly, but on Friday dropped 3% and today gold is down another 1.5% so far to trade below $950. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on AUY.

This morning, AUY opened at $10.31. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.17 and a high of $10.45. As of 12:35, AUY is trading at $10.39, down 26 cents(-2.4%). The chart for AUY looks bullish.

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Camden Property (NYSE: CPT) to Hold from Sell on valuation and believes the company has improved its liquidity position. Despite the upgrade, the firm lowered its target price to $21 from $25.
  
• Goldman added Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) to its Conviction Buy List as it is now the sole dominant retailer in consumer electronics and expects Best Buy's margins to benefit from Circuit City's demise.
  
• Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan as it finds the valuation attractive and sees a number of long-term fundamental positive catalysts. The firm has a $47.50 target on shares.
• United Rentals (NYSE: URI) and Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  
• ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.

Analyst downgrades:

• Oppenheimer downgraded Global Traffic Network (NASDAQ: GNET) to Perform from Outperform following the company's weaker than expected Q2 results and lowered its target price to $6.25 from $7.
  
• Friedman Billings downgraded BankAtlantic (NYSE: BBX) to Underperform from Market Perform to reflect the deterioration of both the company's credit and capital in Q4. The firm lowered its target price to $1 from $5.
  
• RBC Capital downgraded AbitibiBowater (NYSE: ABH) to Underperform from Sector Perform and lowered its target to 50 cents from $2.00 following the company's debt refinancing announcement.
• Lions Gate (NYSE: LGF) was cut to Market Weight from Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
  
• Ctrip.com (NASDAQ: CTRP) was downgraded at Goldman to Sell from Neutral.
  
• Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America/Merrill.

Analyst initiations:

• Oppenheimer initiated Chattem (NASDAQ: CHTT) with an Outperform rating and believes the company's business model is well suited for the current uncertain consumer environment. The firm has an $80 target on the stock.
• Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) was initiated at BMO Capital with a Market Perform rating and $30 target.
  
• Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) was assumed with a Sell rating at Societe Generale.
  
• Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) was started at UBS with a Buy rating.

It seems that everywhere you turn you hear something about the price of gold, from analysts to commercials encouraging you to sell your old jewelry for big bucks. If you're tempted, how about a bit safer investment in the commodity? Let your money work for you -- invest in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that hold shares in several different gold producers, and you can ride the wave of the industry.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) is a perfect opportunity to ride this wave with as the fund's goal is to mimic the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index, before fees and expenses. This is a nondiversified fund that is comprised of several well known companies whose main operations involve gold and silver mining.

There are two reasons to buy GDX instead of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) or the iShares Comex Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU) both of which are pure gold ETFs (you own a share of gold sitting in a safe). First, the ratio between gold and the value of the gold held by miners has been relatively stable for 30 years. But today, the gold miners are selling at 33% of that historical ratio, so bulls say it's better to buy the miners, not the metal. Second, the biggest expense of a mining company is energy. Oil today hit $54 per barrel, down 63% from a peak of $147. This adds to the profits of the Gold Miners.

Gold is trading down $19 today, and pulling several major gold stocks down to new 52 week lows in reaction to the drop in the precious metal.

If you follow gold prices, you know that the past month has not been kind on the commodity, with prices falling from above $900 an ounce a few weeks ago down to its current price of $716.30. Earlier in today's session we actually saw prices trading much lower, breaking through the psychological $700 barrier, and falling all the way down to $695.20 an ounce. This is the first time in 13 months that gold has been under $700, and marks a huge drop from the highs it set back on March 14, when it was at historic highs above $1000 an ounce.

Typically, you would think that recessionary times in America would lead to a rise in gold, but this time around things are a bit different. Not only is America in hard times, but countries all around the world are dealing with their own economic slowdowns, which in turn is pushing currencies around the world lower. As this happens, the dollar, despite the current state of the American economy, has been strengthening against its foreign counterparts. As we all know, gold trades inversely proportionate to the dollar, so any strength in the American currency will result in gold prices dropping, and that is part of what we are seeing right now.

Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Professor Lewis,

Interesting times, eh what? Is gold being sold -- as the dollar trips down beneath 106 yen -- to raise cash?

For example, was the hedge fund world heavily invested enough there to make gold vulnerable as the ill effects of Lehman work themselves through the system?

Also, any current thoughts about Golden Star Resources Ltd. (NYSE: GSS), Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY), Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC), and the NYSE gold ETF (NYSE: GLD)?

Cheers,
Minyan Bill

MB,

I think you are just seeing gold (and gold stocks) flag a bit here.

Now that we have a deal from Congress, I expect everything is likely going to melt up, but gold and gold equities should rally more (and even make new highs) given the inflationary nature of this deal. Meanwhile, the rally in stocks is likely to just be a bear market rally. This $700 bln will keep the financial system functioning, but it's not a cure-all. It's also going to further cement the stagflationary forces that are pressing in from all sides. That's good for gold but not good for much else.

As for the dollar, I'm not sure we'll see new lows because the G7 will no doubt try and support it, but we could see the DXY move back to its July lows potentially after this bill has passed.

As for thoughts on GSS, KGC, AUY, and GLD, I like them all at these prices.

Prof. Lewis

Analyst upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded O'Reilly (NASDAQ: ORLY) to Overweight from Neutral, citing increased demand and CSK acquisition synergies.
  
• Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform by RBC Capital, based on valuation and the firm's expectation that gold will rally.
  
• HSBC upgraded KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Overweight from Neutral with a $44 target.

Analyst downgrades:

• Bernstein dropped DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) to Underperform from Market Perform, citing continued weak operations, declining cash flow, and satellite sector headwinds, among other reasons.
  
• Macy's (NYSE: M) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs based on valuation.
  
• Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) was also dropped to Neutral from Buy by Goldman based on valuation.
  
• UBS downgraded Dr Pepper Snapple (NYSE: DPS) to Neutral from Buy based on valuation.

Analyst initiations:

• Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) was started with a Buy rating by Kaufman Bros., which believes the core on-demand CRM application market is nowhere close to full penetration.
  
• Caris initiated Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) with a Below Average rating, citing the company's Zyprexa and Cymbalta patent expirations.
  
• Leerink Swann assumed coverage of Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) with an Outperform, as the firm predicts that the company's denosumab will allow the company to substantially increase its earnings starting in 2010.

U.S. stock futures were higher Wednesday morning, indicating markets could start on a positive note after two days of declines. Good results from Hewlett-Packard helped lift sentiment, overshadowing financial sector concerns, despite new worries over Fannie and Freddie. Oil remained steady ahead of inventory report later today.

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) shares are rising over 3% in premarket trading after the computer maker reported a 14% rise in fiscal third-quarter earnings and issues current-quarter earnings guidance that exceeded analyst estimates. Tech shares could get a boost from H-P.

Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) remain in focus due to concerns that a government bailout of the two firms is inevitable and would mean wiping out investors. Freddie Mac on Tuesday was forced to pay its steepest borrowing premium in 10 years, which is raising fresh concerns about its ability to withstand the housing and credit crisis without government help.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) is cutting fixed-price seller listing fees. eBay will now charge 35 cents to list any number of the same types of fixed-price items. This is a dramatic change from charging fees based on item price.

When gold was trading above $1,000 an ounce, Curtis Hesler reversed his buy signal and fortuitously warned of a seasonal pullback expected over the summer.

In his The Professional Timing Service, he stated, "Gold should settle into the cyclical and seasonal lows due in early August. Although you will hear plenty of bearish arguments as gold prices pull back, weakness will be a buying opportunity."

He now explains, "I don't think there is much left on downside for the mining shares. We will likely see the miners firm up and begin to rally before the bullion. My adice is to hold tight and exploit the fear.

"This weakness presents a final opportunity before the late summer and early fall strength returns to precious metals. The coast is clearing for gold to advance to new highs by October when its next seasonal high is due.

"Longer-term, I can't help but wonder if gold isn't anticipating the next break in the dollar. We all should be thinking about the trillions of dollars in U.S. government unfunded liabilities for Medicare, Social Security, pensions, etc. There's going to be a tsunami of dollars printed to cover all of that.

"At the top of my buy list is Kinross (NYSE: KGC). Yamana (NYSE: AUY) is an excellent diversification in the precious metals sector. Also among my favorites is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.