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Analyst initiations: NBF, AVR and the REIT sector

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nova BioSource, Aventine Renewable and the REIT Sector were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • ThinkPanmure believes Nova BioSource's (AMEX:NBF) biodiesal production process is economically superior to traditional processes but higher feedstock costs will make scaling difficult. Shares were initiated with an Accumulate rating.
  • ThinkPanmure also initiated Aventine Renewable (NYSE:AVR) with an Accumulate rating and $8 target. The firm does not expect share upside until margin visibility improves, which will not occur until next year's corn crop materializes in early 2009.
  • Lehman initiated the REIT sector with a Neutral rating; the firm started AMB Property (NYSE:AMB) and Kimco Realty (NYSE:KIM) with Overweight ratings and CBL & Associates (CBL) with an Underweight rating.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst upgrades: UAUA, WPPGY, AVR and VSE

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UAL Corp, WPP Group, Aventine Renewable and VeraSun Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded UAL Corp (NASDAQ: UAUA) to Overweight from Neutral based on valuation and expectations for the company to make a capital announcement on next week's conference call.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of WPP Group (NASDAQ: WPPGY) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company's diversification will lead to low earnings volatility.
  • UBS upgraded Aventine Renewable (NYSE: AVR) and VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE) to Buy from Neutral based on expectations for margin improvements following recent corn price declines.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan and to Neutral from Underperform at Merrill.
  • Wachovia raised Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  • Entergy (NYSE: ETR) was lifted to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.

Barron's sees ethanol stocks poised for a rebound

While many of us may think that ethanol companies are not a reliable investment, Barron's asks us to reconsider our thoughts, pointing out to a bright futures for those stocks. People's worries about ethanol companies came as a result of soaring crude oil prices. Thus, the general tendency was to use corn-based alcohol as a substitute for gasoline. The negative reaction was an immediate consequence, and a top official of the United Nations has named ethanol as a "crime against a great part of humanity" as it lead to higher food costs.

Barron's points out three ethanol producers, VeraSun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR), and Pacific Ethanol Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX), which faced difficult time over the past year, although they saw a nice rebound recently after reporting first-quarter operating profits, and Congress passed a farm bill.

Looking ahead, the companies showed optimism related to their further production based on projected 2009 capacity. This takes into account the completion of plants under construction when talking about Aventine and VeraSun. Thus, VeraSun has a projected production of 1.6 billion gallons, Aventine came with 433 million, while Pacific Ethanol has a projected production of 220 million.

Continue reading Barron's sees ethanol stocks poised for a rebound

Option Update: Aventine Renewable Ener shares near record low

Aventine Renewable Ener (NYSE: AVR), a producer, marketer and end-to-end distributor of ethanol, closed at $5.43 Friday.

Calyon says: "Target to $5.50 (from $6). Good operating news offset by the increased financing risk and continued high corn prices."

Corn Futures are down 0.49% to 610.50 according to Bloomberg.

AVR overall option implied volatility of 74 is near its 26-week average of 71 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst initiations: U.S. retail hardlines, biofuels, IPG and OMC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. Retail Hardlines Sector, the BioFuels Sector, Interpublic Group and Omnicom Group were today's noteworthy initiations:
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Morgan Stanley assumed coverage of International Flavors (NYSE: IFF) with an Overweight rating.
  • Wachovia initiated CGI Group (NYSE: GIB) with a Market Perform rating.
  • Leap Wireless (LEAP) was initiated at RBC Capital with a Sector Perform rating and $55 target.

Analyst upgrades: WMGI, ATLS and DAL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wright Medical, Atlas America and Delta Air Lines were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded Wright Medical (NASDAQ: WMGI) to overweight from neutral citing company specific momentum and the increasingly favorable orthopedic industry backdrop.
  • Atlas America (NASDAQ: ATLS) was raised to outperform from market perform at Friedman Billings citing valuation and outlook for its upstream MLP.
  • Credit Suisse upgraded Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) to Outperform from Neutral citing valuation and capacity cuts. The firm also upgraded Northwest Airlines (NYSE: NWA) to outperform from neutral.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Early analyst calls (DNA) (BP) (HOG)

Genentech (NYSE:DNA) was cut to "market weight" from "overweight" at Thomas Weisel according to MarketWatch.

Broadpoint upgraded Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE:AVR) to "neutral" from "under-perform" according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that JP Morgan upgraded BP (NYSE:BP) to "overweight" from "neutral."

Harley-Davidson's (NYSE:HOG) sales will be hurt in Q1 by an overall 7 percent and 9 percent motorcycle sales drop nationwide according to Wachovia research quoted by the AP.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Analyst downgrades: WM, FRE, FNM, MOT and GM

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Mortgage finance companies, Motorola and General Motors were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Goldman downgraded shares of Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) to Sell from Neutral on concerns of significant credit losses from the housing market downturn.
  • Motorola (NYSE: MOT) was lowered to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer after Q1 channel checks indicated a material shortfall in Q1 handset demand. They no longer see support for shares on a sum-of-the-parts valuation.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of General Motors (NYSE: GM) to Hold from Buy as they believe the cyclical North American downturn could be deeper and more protracted than previously expected.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Aventine Renwable (NYSE: AVR) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil.
  • UBS lowered James River (NASDAQ: JRCC) and Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Deutsche Bank lowered New York Times (NYSE: NYT) to Sell from Hold.

Option update: Ethanol producers volatility up as shares at record lows

Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX), the largest West Coast-based marketer and producer of ethanol, closed at $4.64 on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs said on November 27: "We are adding PEIX to the Americas Sell List, as we believe that ethanol equities will continue to lag the energy sector and broader stock market." PEIX overall option implied volatility of 75 is above its 26-week average of 50 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE) operates as an ethanol producer. VSE closed at $10.14 on Tuesday. Friedman Billings says: "Sources tell us House staff hope to complete draft energy legislation today with hopes of a Floor vote next week. Proposed RFS increases exceed existing expectations for near-year corn ethanol legislative demand increases." VSE overall option implied volatility of 64 is above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) a producer, marketer and end-to-end distributor of ethanol. Corn futures are down 0.56% to 398.50 and WTI Crude futures are at 94.48 according to Bloomberg. AVR overall option implied volatility of 75 is above its 26-week average of 57 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst downgrades: NTRI, ENDP, CXP, AVR and BIOF

MOST NOTEWORTHY: NutriSystem, Endo Pharmaceuticals, Corporate Express NV, Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings and BioFuel Energy were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • NutriSystem (NASDAQ: NTRI) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard and to Buy from Strong Buy at Broadpoint following its lowered Q3 guidance.
  • Jefferies downgraded shares of Endo Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ENDP) to Hold from Buy after Impax Laboratories (NASDAQ: IPXL) filed a Paragraph IV challenge against Opana ER yesterday to reflect the potential for a generic version of Opana ER arriving as early as 2010 and the possibility of a similar threat against Lidoderm.
  • Corporate Express (NYSE: CXP) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at ING, as they believe the new CEO's long-term targets are overly ambitious.
  • JP Morgan downgraded Aventine Renewable (NYSE: AVR) and BioFuel Energy (NASDAQ: BIOF) to Neutral from Overweight, citing weaker fundamentals in ethanol pricing.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: Ethanol sector, BT, AMR and KYPH

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The ethanol sector, BT Group, AMR Corp and Kyphon were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) and Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX) to Underperform and VeraSun Energy Corporation (NYSE: VSE) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform. The firm said the ethanol market has become increasingly challenging as spot market prices have declined by 30% in the past few months and expect pressure to remain through 2008 as the industry's growing pains continue.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of BT Group (NYSE: BT) to Underweight from Equal Weight on valuation and regulation uncertainty ahead of Ofcom's first consultation document next week.
  • AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman to reflect the company's U.S. exposure as they expect the U.S. economy to slow.
  • Banc of America downgraded shares of Kyphon Inc (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Neutral from Buy on valuation as the spread on the acquisition by Medtronic Inc (NYSE: MDT) has now narrowed.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst downgrades 8-02-07: ADSK, CMG, EDS and MRVL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Getty Images (GYI), Jackson Hewitt (JTX), Electronic Data (EDS), RC2 Corp (RCRC) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank cut Getty Images (NYSE: GYI) to Sell from Hold citing deterioration in its core business. Gabelli downgraded Getty Images to Hold from Buy after the company lowered guidance to reflect the changing industry dynamics.
  • Goldman cut Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) to Sell from Neutral citing near-term risks that include the renegotiation of the HSBC (HBC)/RAL contract, the DoJ/IRS investigation, and decreasing performance in tax.
  • Jefferies downgraded Electronic Data Systems (NYSE: EDS) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's slowing cash flow improvement.
  • Wedbush downgraded RC2 Corp (NASDAQ: RCRC) to Buy from Strong Buy on the lower sales forecast for 2007. Soleil cut shares to Hold from Gradually Accumulate to reflect uncertainty over the Thomas recall and increased competition.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Lazard downgraded Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Hold from Buy.
  • Credit Suisse downgraded AutoDesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) to Neutral from Buy.
  • CIBC downgraded Marvell Tech (NASDAQ: MRVL) to Sector Performer from Outperformer.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 5-31-07: Ethanol producers to Sell

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ethanol producers Novacea, Inc. (NOVC) and Aimco (AIV) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Banc of America downgraded shares of Andersons Inc. (NASDAQ: ANDE) to Neutral from Buy, as well as VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE), Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX) and Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) to Sell from Neutral. The firm believes new ethanol supply will depress ethanol's premium to gasoline, drive corn prices higher and pressure distillers' grains values.
  • Novacea Inc. (NASDAQ: NOVC) was downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns based on valuation and lack of catalysts until 2H08; the firm believes the company's deal with Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) is a positive.
  • Aimco Properties (NYSE: AIV) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Lehman, as the firm does not view AIV as an attractive takeover target.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 4-12-07: DELL, GS, HPQ, MER, MS and MSFT initiated today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Microsoft (MSFT), Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and certain broker/dealers were some of today's notable initiations:
  • Soleil initiated Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) with a Buy rating and $33 target, expecting a strong upgrade cycle near-term and anticipates expanding addressable markets and its global footprint in the long-term.
  • Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) was initiated with an Above Average rating and $27 objective at Caris. The firm expects Dell to have 2-3 potentially "sloppy" quarters and believes investors will give it a "pass," as the company's current valuation reflects a majority of the near-term risk.
  • Caris also started Hewlett-Packard Co (NYSE: HPQ) with an Above Average rating along with a $44 objective.
  • Deutsche Bank initiated several broker/dealers with Buy ratings including Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS), Merril Lynch & Co (NYSE: MER), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH).
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cramer says sell alt.energy names, buy CROX

from www.247wallst.com.....

On Jim Cramer's STOP TRADING segment on CNBC at 2:45 PM EST, Cramer was discussing how to play oil prices dropping and a crock of something.

Now that oil has gone to $60, Cramer said he is tired of torture House game because that homebuilder group was the best performer over last month.

Cramer says Sell alternative energy stocks, particularly Ethanol plays. He says even sell solar power. He is discussing the stocks, not the technology. They showed SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR), FuelCell Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FCEL), Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:AVR), Verasun Energy Corporation (NYSE:VSE), Ballard Power Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDP). He said he is talking about the stocks, not the company.

Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) is up 6% and Cramer thinks they will preannounce upside to the quarter tomorrow at an investor conference presentation. He likes the closed toe cold weather and Disney deals. He says they are hot and go higher. He also noted for the short sellers to watch out.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+24.1910,457.90
NASDAQ+5.242,174.42
S&P 500+2.951,108.60

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 12:28 PM

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