Analyst upgrades

• UBS upgraded CF Industries (CF) to neutral from sell. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade. In addition, UBS raised its price target on shares to $84 from $81.
• Baird upgraded Johnson Controls (JCI) to outperform from neutral and raised its price target to $42 from $33. The upgrade was based on improving margins, China growth, and upside from a cyclical recovery.
• Barrington upgraded G&K Services (GKSR) to outperform from market perform ahead of the company's Q3 results to reflect optimism regarding the company's operational turnaround. The firm set a $35 price target for shares.
• LaSalle Hotel (LHO) was upgraded to top pick from outperform at RBC Capital.
• Zimmer (ZMH) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Thermo Fisher (TMO) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), whose colleagues include Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Gap (GPS), responded well to the company's fourth-quarter report. Adjusted income was 33 cents per diluted share. A year ago, only 19 cents per diluted share was generated. Oddly enough, 33 cents was the analyst's call.

I'm characterizing this as odd because I guess I was expecting to see a big beat on the bottom line after observing the strong rally in the stock. At the time of this writing, shares of the retailer were trading higher by over 6%, with tons of volume backing the bid.

J. Crew Group (JCG), an apparel chain whose related stocks include Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Gap (GPS), and JCPenney (JCP), reported strong sales and earnings yesterday after the bell. I'm impressed; I have to say, like I did the last time, bravo to an excellent quarter.

Overall sales rose 19% in Q4, according to the corporate press release. Same-store revenues increased 17%. Earnings per share were 61 cents on a diluted basis. A loss of 22 cents was recorded twelve months ago. As far as the analysts go, they should be pleased. Then again, they probably should be disappointed, since their projections were completely taken out (I guess it all depends on one's perspective). Either way, the call was for net income to come in around 46 cents per share.

With earnings now out of the way for Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), option traders are looking for the stock to stay in a short-term range (at least for the next few weeks).

Shortly after today's opening bell, a trader simultaneously sold 6,000 each of the March 35 puts and March 35 calls, creating a short straddle. A straddle seller is essentially expecting limited volatility in the underlying stock over the option's lifespan. The closer ANF finishes to the straddle strike (35) at expiration, the better it is for the seller. In fact, for the seller to retain the entire credit collected today, ANF would have to close right at 35 on March expiration in about four weeks.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), whose mall colleagues include American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Gap (GPS), closed over 4% higher on Tuesday on active volume. The market liked the fourth quarter numbers. I did not.

Let's see. Total sales were down 5%. Same-store sales skidded 13%. Total company domestic sales contracted 12%. And net income came in at 91 cents per share, adjusted. This compared unfavorably to the $1.06 per share made in the year-ago period.

Here's a stock I've been wrong about. I've been bearish on J. Crew Group (JCG), as this previous article will indicate. But since the latest quarterly results show a vast improvement of the retailer's fundamentals, I guess you could say I was decidedly behind the curve.

According to the earnings release, revenues increased 14% in the third quarter. Same-store sales advanced 8%. Net income more than doubled to 67 cents per diluted share. A lot of this good news was expected, as Trey Thoelcke pointed out in his earnings preview. Still, the bottom line beat the analysts by several pennies. And you've got to love the increase seen in the gross margin.

Ann Taylor (ANN) was upgraded Monday, according to TheStreet.com. Jesup & Lamont calls the stock a buy now instead of a hold. You're never far from the analyst game when you trade on Wall Street. Question is, what should you do about this retailer? Should you give it a position in your own portfolio?

I'm not the biggest fan of Ann Taylor. I don't like the fundamentals. I made this amply clear back in August when I discussed the company's second quarter.

Back in August, I discussed my amazement at Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The stock just didn't seem to be acting in a manner which reflected the fundamentals of the business it represents. Well, my bout of amazement continues, because shares of the retailer are up 9% as of this writing on the latest earnings report. One that didn't impress me.

For the third quarter, Abercrombie made, on a reported basis, 44 cents per diluted share compared to 72 cents per diluted share in the year-ago period. After adjustments, earnings came in at 30 cents per share. Okay, that profit drop is bad enough, but wait till I get to the really bad stuff. Which would be revenues. Total sales declined 15%, but same-store sales were even worse: they plunged off the proverbial cliff, falling 22%.

The future investment stars are already with us. The NYSE Financial Future Challenge, operated by the NYSE Foundation, By Kids for Kids, K12 Inc. and the United Investors Association, is in full swing, with five finalists just identified. To reach this level, the participants had to develop a new product, idea or process that would "excite, educate and motivate their peers" to become interested in the financial marketplace. The eventual winner lurks within this subset and will receive a $2,500 prize -- a great way to get that portfolio started. And, he or she will be feted at a closing bell ceremony at the NYSE (NYX) on January 11, 2010.

The finalists presented a variety of ideas which are sure to generate some buzz. Kelsey Foss, a 12-year-old from Mountainville, NY, proposed a new television show, "Stock Market Tycoon Idol," which would harness the popularity of reality TV while amping up the content. The program would involve the journeys of 10 kids as they seek to make money or lose it, with the possibility of becoming virtual millionaires along the way. The show would be set at a mock NYSE studio on Wall Street, and exports would be brought out to mentor the contestants. The reality TV reach would help engage a younger audience.

There's a difference between a CEO that's paid well and one that's raking in loot he clearly doesn't deserve. The former may invoke a bit of ire in this economic climate, but when cooler heads prevail, the cash laid out is usually but a rounding error on the increases in market cap he's driven. An overpaid CEO, on the other hand ... well, it's a bit harder to justify the inflated package.

Kerri Chyka over at CNN Money reports that the Corporate Library sifted through the bloated and legit packages out there to let us know which top dogs are rolling in dough that should probably be left in the company coffers.

1. Michael Jeffries, Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF)
Last year, Michael Jeffries made $71.8 million in total, with a base salary of $1.5 million, according to corporate governance research firm, the Corporate Library. It even included a $6 million retention bonus ... because you want to hang on to a guy who the research firm calls one of the five "Highest Paid Worst Performers" of 2008. If that stings, Jeffries can hop on the Abercrombie corporate jet instead of running away. He's paid better than 75% of rival CEOs, while the share price generally underperformed them.

2. James W. Stewart, BJ Services Company (NYSE: BJS)
James Stewart had a good year in 2008, as it outperformed most of its peers, and he nailed a $34.6 million package. In all fairness, $30 million came from the value realized on stock options. The four years that preceded Stewart's strong performance, on the other hand, were lackluster. The future, it seems, is immaterial, as Baker Hughes picked up BJ Services last month, and Stewart will probably be out the door at the end of the year, when the deal closes.

Retail sales were down for the twelfth month in a row in August, according to an Associated Press report. Consumers stayed focused on what they need rather than what they want, as unemployment remains high and even those employed worry about the future of their jobs.

The silver lining, though, is that the coming holiday season might not be as bad as many thought.

Some retailers actually showed gains. TJMaxx (NYSE: TJX) and Old Navy, a Gap (NYSE: GPS) company, for example, saw year-over-year sales increases, though upscale stores generally sustained declines. The action on the discount side could be an early sign that the consumer is ready to play.

Michael Jeffries, the CEO of struggling retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) recently told investors on a conference call that "Consumer spending patterns domestically continue to be dictated by cost and value propositions, and this is clearly a headwind for our premium brands."

Abercrombie has garnered headlines for its steadfast refusal to cut prices to keep up with lower-end competitors like Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), which is picking up market-share because of the recession. But that could be changing.

Last summer we lamented the price of gas. This year, however, there's at least one upside. Retail sales for June were up 0.6% - substantially better than the 0.4% anticipated – with the gas prices leading the charge. A slight tip in the brutalized auto manufacturer sector helped, as well. This was the largest retail sales increase in five months.

Gas stations benefited from the cost of fuel, adding a bit of pep to a beleaguered retail industry: sales were up 5% year over year, after doing the same in May. And, car dealers had their best month since January: the sales of cars and parts climbed 2.3%. Nonetheless, this corner of the retail world is still off 14.5% from last year. It may have helped last month, but we're still pretty far from a cure.

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) announced today that it would close all 29 of its Ruehl stores by the end of the fiscal year.

Abercrombie took a $51 million impairment charge related to Ruehl in the first quarter and now says it will have to charge off an additional $65 million over the rest of the year. In 2008, Ruehl generated a pre-tax loss of $58 million. In a press release announcing the decision, Abercrombie explained that "While it was encouraged by the initial performance of RUEHL, the Company has determined that, given the severe economic downturn and its impact on the retail and consumer sectors, the timing is not right to continue to pursue the further development of RUEHL."

Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES), a fashion retailer that competes in the mall with companies like Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), told the market how it did in Q1 on Thursday after the bell. As I write this during the early afternoon on Friday, shares of Guess? are up well over 6% on very good volume. Was there something to this earnings report?

I didn't think the numbers were particularly fetching. Revenues declined nearly 10%, thanks in part to the effects of currency translation (maybe that should be no thanks). Earnings per share came in at $0.35, a massive 30% decline. And same-store sales in North America dipped 10% (take out currency, and the dip was 6%, which still wasn't good).