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Options Update: Satyam volatility elevated; shares collapse on accounting fraud

Satyam (NYSE: SAY) is recently trading at $1.44 in pre-open trading, below its close of $9.35. SAY Chairman Ramalinga Raju resigned after saying he falsified earnings and assets at India's fourth-largest software services provider. SAY January option implied volatility closed at 121, February at 114; above its 26-week average of 87, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Infosys (NASDAQ: INFY), a technology services firm based in India, closed at $26.60. INFY is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on January 12. INFY January 27.5 straddle is priced at $2.80, February 27.5 straddle is priced at $4.90. February option implied volatility of 63 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Wipro Ltd (NYSE: WIT), a technology services company based in India, closed at $8.41. WIT is expected to report Q3 EPS in mid January. WIT February call option implied volatility is at 78, puts are at 86; near its 26-week average of 80, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Press beats regulators to the punch in uncovering fraud

According to a study recently published in the Journal of Accounting Research, journalists are a lot better, or at least faster, at spotting signs of accounting fraud and corporate shenanigans than the SEC. Harvard Professor Gregory Miller measured the frequency of reporters beating the SEC to the punch in uncovering fraud and found that in roughly one-third of the 263 cases of accounting fraud confirmed by the SEC between 1987 and 2002, members of the press alleged wrongdoing before the SEC or the company announced any investigation.

The Columbia Journalism Review sums up the findings nicely: "And while beating the SEC to an investigation is like beating Porky the Pig in a bicycle race up the Alps, we concede it's not nothing."

I e-mailed Marketwatch columnist Herb Greenberg (Full disclosure: He's one of my heroes.) about the findings, because he was the only journalist to have proactively uncovered a case of accounting fraud before the SEC more than once; he's done that five times.

Given the relative speed with which journalists uncover fraud, I asked him whether the SEC could learn anything from the methods employed by journalist-gumshoes. Greenberg dismissed that idea saying that "There's a difference between reporting a story and formally investigating and finding legal fault .... No, nothing they can learn."

He added that that much-maligned band of investors known as short-sellers are often sources for investigative reporters, calling them the "first line of defense for investors because they're putting their own money on the line." But he said that really good information usually comes from "former employees, analysts, and mutual fund managers who have SOLD stocks for reasons other than valuation."

Continue reading Press beats regulators to the punch in uncovering fraud

The forensic investor: Digging deeper into financial statements

Herb Greenberg's Weekend Investor column focuses on the need for investors to be more skeptical or, as he calls it, detective-like. By looking deeper into the numbers than just the earnings per share or revenue growth, you can sometimes uncover signs of trouble before most Wall Street analysts do. And with increased disclosures as a result of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, there may be more red flags to be found than ever.

Unfortunately, I suspect very few investors have the skills to read a 10-K or 10-Q critically. Most of us just take everything at face value. But, learning a little bit of "forensic accounting" is a lot of fun (you really do feel like a detective) and may help you notice some danger signs. Here are my favorite books for digging deeper into financial statements and seeking out signs of fraud or misrepresentation:

Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports by Howard Schilit. Probably the best book on accounting fraud.

Quality of Earnings by Thorton O'Glove. I found this one dry and boring, but it's written by one of the first experts in the field, and contains some great examples.

The Art of Short Selling by Kathryn F. Staley. While not exclusively about accounting fraud, this contains some interesting stories of companies that were engaging in creative accounting. And, if you become an expert on creative accounting, short-selling may be a way to a profit from it.

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Last updated: November 12, 2009: 07:02 AM

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