TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says 30%-40% discounts have a way of bringing out the buyers.

Home prices in Stockton, CA are down 40%. In Daytona, FL, houses are priced at 30% discounts with amenities. The Inland Empire of California -- you name your price. That's how the madness ends: with huge price cuts, the way it ended in Bradenton, FL.

And believe me, we get more Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) money -- forget these darned covered bonds, let's just solve the problem. You get buyers after a year and a half that buyers went on strike.

Remember, while we can't live in stocks, we know they trade like houses, and when the first stocks to go down bottom, the others are not far behind.

With the new housing bill, the rate of foreclosures will go down and the bargains will be quite evident for those who want to take them. Either a new administration will remove the fear of the illegal immigrants from buying homes -- they were a huge part of the hard hit Arizona, Florida and California markets. Or the dramatic decline in inventory at the homebuilding level has given us breathing room.

Perhaps there are not enough good opportunities to "cherry pick" assets among U.S. mortgage lenders, so U.S. buyout firms Cerberus and JC Flowers have gotten approval to deal with the board of Northern Rock (LSE: NRK), the large and troubled U.K. mortgage bank.

The two funds would probably take different approaches. Flowers is interested in having Northern Rock continue to operate, but perhaps with many fewer employees. Cerberus is interest in the bank's assets, which it believes it can get at a discount and then sell off to other institutions.

According to The Telegraph, British authorities "have said Northern Rock is solvent, but sources close to the restructuring warn that it is living on borrowed time."

A buyout of Northern Rock could be a trial for whether similar deals could work in the U.S. There is little hope that the U.S. mortgage market will be better this year and may even stay depressed into 2008. Banks like Accredited Home Lenders (NASDAQ: LEND) are still not out of the woods. And, private equity and hedge fund interests may be the only buyers left for some of these companies.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

The New York Times [registration required] reports that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE: AHM) is shutting its doors thanks to the fear of its lenders -- who provide the wholesale money they lend to home buyers -- that they won't get their money back. Doug McIntyre posted about this here. Several of AHM's peers -- IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) and Accredited Home Lenders Holding (NASDAQ: LEND) -- are also in rough shape.

Last October, I began looking for ways to profit from the collapse in the housing market. My best idea -- posted in December -- was to short shares of NovaStar Financial (NYSE: NFI) which dropped from $116 to $7.19. This post got the attention of a reporter from NPR's MarketPlace who dropped by my office this week to interview me about where the next opportunities for short profits might lie.

My answer is that I don't know. That's because the hedge funds, endowments, pension funds, and insurance companies that buy the mortgage backed securities (MBS) constructed from the loans that NovaStar and its peers originate are not disclosing the value of their MBS holdings. To identify short selling opportunities, I'd like to know this information because many MBS holders will be wiped out.

American Home Mortgage (NYSE: AHM) fired almost all 7,000 of its employees late yesterday. According to CNN Money, the company will go into bankruptcy immediately.

AHM made $59 billion in loans last year, many of them with adjustable-rates. Many of the company's loans were to the middle part of the housing market and were no sub-prime mortgages.

Another lender, Accredited Home Lenders (NASDAQ: LEND), also showed signs of distress yesterday. After closing at $8.35 on Wednesday, shares fell as low as $3.98 Wednesday.

The mortgage lending fall-out is much likely to get much worse. While many of the problems with sub-prime mortgage problems have now been exposed, loans to more credit-worthy borrowers are likely to fall apart fairly fast.

A large number of adjustable-rate mortgages made in the last year will moved to higher, fixed rates over the next 24 months. Some consumers will not be able to make the larger payments. With home inventory rising and prices falling, they may also find it impossible to sell their homes, unless they want to take a large loss.

The mortgage troubles today may only be the beginning of a much uglier period.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.com.

Accredited Home Lenders (NYSE:LEND) volatility Spikes as LEND collapses 15%. LEND, a mortgage company originating, financing, securitizing, servicing and selling non-prime mortgages, is recently down $1.95 to $10.97. LEND August option implied volatility of 155 is above its 26-week average of 78 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Rohm and Haas (NYSE:ROH) volatility stays elevated after reporting 2Q earnings of $161M. ROH operates five business segments: powder coatings, salt, electronic materials, performance materials and specialty materials that generated sales of $2.19 billion in the second quarter. ROH is recently up $.40 to $60.74. Goldman Sachs CO says "ROH continues to prove the benefit of its portfolio and geographic diversification as strength in Asia and Europe offset the weakness in the US. ROH August option implied volatility of 30 is above its 26-week average of 22 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Openwave Systems Inc (NASDAQ: OPWV), Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc (NASDAQ: TRMP) and Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co (NASDAQ: LEND) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Openwave Systems Inc (NASDAQ: OPWV) was downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Needham, as the firm no longer believes the company's assets and balance sheet are worth $11/share and expects the franchise to be again disrupted due to layoffs and asset sales. Openwave was also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, to Hold from Buy at Wedbush after no superior bid emerged to Harbinger's, and to Sector Underperformer from Outperformer at CIBC World Markets, which cited reduced prospects of a buyout.

• Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc (NASDAQ: TRMP) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns citing valuation as upside from a takeout at current levels is remote.

• Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co (NASDAQ: LEND) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette & Woods following its acquisition by Lone Star for $400M.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Bebe Stores Inc (NASDAQ: BEBE) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings citing new merchandise that lacks a significant casual component to drive business, tough comps, aggressively planned inventory levels for 2H, and the potential for sustained negative comps during the next few quarters.

• Friedman Billings also downgraded Aladdin Knowledge Systems Limited (NASDAQ: ALDN) to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation and challenges in the U.S. market.

• General Mills Inc (NYSE: GIS) was downgraded to Peer Perform from outperform at Bear Stearns on valuation and concerns with the turnaround plan for Big G cereal division.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Just a few months ago, it looked like the subprime sector was destined for a complete wipeout.

Maybe not.

There are brave hedge funds and private equity funds that are moving aggressively into the sector.

The latest deal: Lone Star Fund V L.P. has agreed to shell out $400 million for Accredited Home Lenders Holding (NASDAQ: LEND). Then again, the stock was about $50 a share about a year ago.

Over the past few months, I'm sure management at Accredited has had lots of sleepless nights. They've been able to snag $230 million in financing from hedge fund Farallon Capital Management. There was also a sale of $2.7 billion in loans.

On the news of the Lone Star buyout offer, Accredited's stock surged 9.88% to $15.12 per share. It's actually about two cents above the offer and is an indication that the Street thinks a higher bid may come to the table.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down 0.57 to 14.02.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) April option implied volatility-Risk stays elevated into EPS.
MS operates its business through four segments: retail brokerage, asset management, institutional securities. Investors expect to hear more about MS plan to spin off its Discovery Card, a company with 50 million card members and four million merchant /cash access locations. MS is expected to report EPS of $1.88 on 3/21 according to Thomson First Call. MS April option implied volatility of 28 is above its 26-week average of 24 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) volatility and volume Spikes on canceled CEO speech, LBO and PALM chatter.
MOT is recently up $0.46 to $18.74 on LBO speculation. Carl Icahn entities own 1.39% of MOT. The Chicago Tribune reported MOT CEO Edward Zander canceled his keynote speech at the cell phone's industry annual U.S. trade show, CTIA Wireless. Chatter is also circulating that MOT could purchase Palm Inc. (NASDAQ:PALM). MOT call option volume of 35,471 contracts compares to put volume of 18,121 contracts. MOT April option implied volatility of 35 is above a level of 30 from 70-minutes ago. MOT average option implied volatility over the last 26-week average is 29 according to Track Data. Increasing option volume and implied volatility suggests larger price risk fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were: AtheroGenics Inc. (NASDAQ:AGIX), Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) and Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (NASDAQ:LEND).

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

After the recent pounding that the subprime mortgage sector has been taking, you're probably not thinking about its investment opportunities. But that's what I'll be talking about on CNBC at 11 a.m. with Becky Quick and Tom Gardner of Motley Fool.

There are two reasons for thinking there might be opportunities here:

• Investment banking put - Investment banks are putting a floor under the stock price of many subprime lenders. For example, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LEH) and Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BSC) have all said they may commit more funds to subprime. Yesterday, Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. (NYSE: LEND) added $3.39, or 56%, to $9.43, helped by apparent takeover speculation in the wake of its statement Tuesday that it would explore "strategic options." On the pink sheets, New Century Financial rose 68 cents to $1.35, more than doubling its share price from a day earlier. NovaStar Financial Inc. (NYSE: NFI) is also up 50% since it bottomed out at $3.43 on Tuesday.
• Picking the long term survivors - Not every industry participant will be wiped out. For example, Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) -- which only has 7% of its loans in subprime -- added $376 million in cash for a total of $1.4 billion in 2006. Nevertheless, it is far from being out of the woods: it recently reported a rise in bad loans across the board -- i.e., payments were 30 days late at the end of 2006 on 2.9% of prime home-equity loans serviced by CFC, up from 1.6% a year earlier and payments were late on 19% of subprime mortgage loans [subscription required], up from 15.2% at the end of 2005. If it reports worse than expected damage in future quarters, CFC will drop further, which could represent buying opportunities that lower an investor's cost basis. Despite the medium term pain of such a strategy, if CFC survives until the next housing upturn, investors will profit.

Stock futures are lower in early morning indicating to a similar start for the stock market ahead of some key economic data due to be released today.

At 8:30 a.m., before markets open, the Labor Department will report February's consumer price index. Economists forecast a 0.3% increase compared to a 0.2% increase in January. Ex-food and and energy, core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% after gaining 0.3% in the previous month. Investors will be watching this inflationary measure closely as the Fed meets to discuss interest rate policy next week. What's more, yesterday's PPI surprise is causing further concerns inflationary pressures are sill strong.

Despite PPI coming much higher than expected yesterday and other indication about mounting inflation (at the wholesale level) and slower economic growth, markets finished on a positive note. The reason, many speculate, has to do with several options and futures contracts expiring today bringing buyers into the market. Corporate M&A activity also helped strengthened stocks yesterday.

Other economic data will be reported today: February capacity utilization and industrial production figures will be released just before markets open. March consumer confidence is due at 10:00 a.m., after the open, and is expected to show a slight drop.

The dollar dropped to a three-months low against the euro ahead of the coming U.S. economic data that could further point to weakening U.S. economy. The dollar also lost ground against the yen and 12 other currencies.
After falling to near $57 a barrel, oil prices rose this morning.

In corporate news:

OMI Corp. (NYSE:OMN), operator of a fleet of oil tankers, may put itself up for sale. The company hired advisers to explore sale and its board is reviewing several strategic alternatives.

Nissan Motor Co. (NASDAQ:NSANY) CEO Carlos Ghosn would give up the duty of overseeing operations in the Americas. The automaker shuffles top management as it heads for its first annual profit decline in seven years.

The Volatility Index for S&P 500 Options is down $.32 to $15.65.

Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) June 40 calls bid up on expected Buyout offer exceeding Icahn's $36. LEA, an automotive interior systems & components supplier, announced on February 9, 2007 that American Real Estate Partners, a holding company controlled by Icahn, will purchase LEA for $36 per share in cash. LEA June 40 calls are bid $.85, according to Track Data, suggesting buyers expect LEA to trade above $40 in the next three months.

Accredited Home Lenders (NASDAQ: LEND) volatility increases to 133 suggesting Aggressive Risk. LEND, a mortgage company originating, financing, securitizing, servicing and selling non-prime mortgages, is recently down $1.00 to $16.57. On March 2, LEND filed to delay its 10-K. LEND call option volume of 7,784 contracts compares to put volume of 16,687 contracts. LEND April option implied volatility of 133 is above its 26-week average of 60 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option volume leaders today were: Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Altria (NYSE: MO) and ScanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK).

The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.