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Posts with tag Activision Blizzard

Not much fun for GameStop in Q3

GameStop (NYSE: GME) didn't have a great third quarter. Total sales increased by slightly higher than 5%. On a GAAP basis, earnings dropped three pennies to $0.28 per share. If you exclude items such as debt extinguishment and foreign currency effects, then adjusted earnings per share on a diluted basis increased 19% to $0.38.

The bottom line may have increased by double digits by GameStop's calculation, but there are a couple reasons not to be too impressed by the performance. First, management missed the analyst's call by three pennies (this particular source is using $0.34 as an adjusted number, and comparing it to the expectation of $0.37). Second, and of higher importance to me, same-store sales decreased 1.8% during the quarter.

Now, it is true that the video-game retailer was cycling off a dramatic 46.3% increase in comps in the year-ago period, an expansion that was driven by Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) incredible Halo 3 phenomenon. I realize it was a difficult comparison. But there's no way that an investor can't be disappointed by that figure. The difference between positive 46.3% and negative 1.8% is rather sizable; I think management should have tried a little harder to deliver a number on the positive side of things at the very least.

Continue reading Not much fun for GameStop in Q3

More than a quantum of success for James Bond and DreamWorks Animation

I think we all knew which film would come out on top this past weekend. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) new James Bond adventure, Quantum of Solace, grossed an estimated $70 million at domestic theaters over the last three days according to Boxofficemojo. Excellent showing, Jimbo. As far as I'm concerned, though, I think you have to give the number-two film even more credit.

DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and its distributor, Viacom (NYSE: VIA), need to be given major kudos for their work on Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa. The first Madagascar took in about $193 million in total at the domestic box office back in 2005. It was released during the summertime. The sequel is definitely going to hit $200 million. This past weekend it took in roughly $36 million, and its total stands at approximately $118 million. With the Thanksgiving holiday still to come, I figure there will be plenty of business for DreamWorks Animation's cartoon.

The wild card here is Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Bolt project. That one will do well, judging by the commercials I've seen so far. How much thunder will it steal from the second Madagascar when it is released this Friday? A lot, I think. Still, I'll keep to my $200 million prediction. I believe there will be enough discretionary dollars left for both cartoons.

Continue reading More than a quantum of success for James Bond and DreamWorks Animation

Video game sales rocket in October -- I still like Activision Blizzard

The month of October was good to the Nintendo (OTC BB: NTDOY) Wii console. Actually, every month seems to be good to the Wii console. According to the latest sales figures, the Wii sold over 800,000 units during the Halloween season. Nothing scary about that.

Of course, Sony (NYSE: SNE) probably was a little spooked. The company's PlayStation 3 system came in a distant third to the Wii. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) probably felt all right. The Xbox 360 came in second place, fueled by a recent price cut. Believe it or not, you can actually get a video game system for less money than it costs to acquire a Wii. The Xbox 360 version without a hard drive goes for $199. Still, people are willing to pay a premium for casual gaming.

After I got through checking out the hardware sales, I wanted to see how software had performed last month over at Gamespot. I have to admit, I was pretty shocked to learn of the "conspicuously absent" Guitar Hero World Tour game. That bugged me because one of the prime reasons I own shares of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) is the Guitar Hero franchise. However, one thing to keep in mind is that the title still has time to chart. It was released the last week of October, so perhaps the November rankings will be kind to it. Also, the new Call of Duty war adventure hit the street this week. Anecdotally, I know there's a lot of interest in that game.

Continue reading Video game sales rocket in October -- I still like Activision Blizzard

Booksellers hope people read even during a recession (BKS, AMZN, BGP)

So, how will booksellers such as Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Borders Group (NYSE: BGP), and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) fare during the holiday season? It's an interesting question, one which is examined in an article at The New York Times. The piece talks about how the current recession seems to be affecting consumers and their desire to buy books. At the beginning of the article, two shoppers are browsing in a bookstore -- one buys, the other doesn't. Both have been affected by the bad economy. What are we to make of this?

I'll give you my take on things. Books, unfortunately, are simply not so glamorous these days. And I do think that booksellers are going to have a hard time this holiday season. With all the competition from video games and other media, the printed page just isn't that exciting to a lot of consumers. I don't think that books will be a top priority as the wallet continues to get squeezed and while job security remains an issue. Our attention spans have been cut so short these days, and they're only getting shorter. In an era of MTV quick-edits and PowerPoint presentations, 100,000-word diversions don't feel so diverting anymore.

Books are probably even less exciting to young people. Seriously, how many kids have books on their Christmas lists this year? They may want the latest Blu-ray cartoon from Disney (NYSE: DIS), or the latest Call of Duty game from Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), but I'm not so sure they want the latest Stephen King novel (as for me, I picked up King's latest short-story collection Just After Sunset at my local Barnes & Noble). Many kids have been introduced to the joys of reading through the Harry Potter series, but I don't think Potter will be working his magic this season. If parents do cut back this year on presents, I figure they're going to err on the side of making sure that all the non-book gifts are acquired.

Is there anything the booksellers can do about this?

Continue reading Booksellers hope people read even during a recession (BKS, AMZN, BGP)

Activision Blizzard beats in Q3 -- time to buy

Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), which competes with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), did all right in the third quarter. The publisher reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.07. That was two cents better than what analysts were counting on. As a shareholder of the company, I was pleased to see that. I was also pleased that a $1 billion stock buyback was announced.

However, I wasn't so pleased by the cautious tone of CEO Bobby Kotick. You can tell he thinks the recession may put a damper on all the rockin' fun that Activision Blizzard is having with its Guitar Hero franchise. Indeed, the market is pricing in the risk of owning Activision Blizzard shares these days.

Before, I was used to what seemed like a constant capital appreciation of my position. Now, that feeling is gone, as the stock has been struggling. The stock, in fact, was near a 52-week low at the close of trading on Wednesday. That doesn't feel right, does it? Activision Blizzard should still sell a lot of software for the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, and the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platforms. Not only is the new Guitar Hero making waves, but a fresh version of Call of Duty is forthcoming.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard beats in Q3 -- time to buy

Electronic Arts loses the earnings game in Q2

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) did not have a good second quarter. According to preliminary results, the publisher is looking at an adjusted loss of 6 cents per diluted share; this compares unfavorably to a profit of 27 cents per diluted share in the year-ago period. Wait, did I just say unfavorably? I meant very unfavorably. EA merely met Wall Street's expectations.

Non-GAAP revenues, however, increased 20%, and cash flow from operations for the trailing twelve months rose over 50% (cash was used, however, for operations during the quarter). But shares were down in the after-hours session over 15% at one point. The market was reacting to the cautious outlook from management and comments about a slowing retail environment. Furthermore, EA needs to reduce its costs. The company is eliminating about 6% of its workforce. While Wall Street traditionally looks upon job cuts as a sign that management is taking steps to improve its operations, I think, in this case, shareholders will look upon the cuts as a sign that EA is floundering.

Can you imagine this? Shouldn't EA be doing an incredible job of maximizing shareholder value by taking its incredible pipeline of intellectual properties and monetizing it via the next-generation platforms provided by Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY)? It should, but it's not. The publisher has sold millions of copies of high-profile titles such as Madden NFL 09 and Spore, but again, those costs and expenses are getting out of hand.

Continue reading Electronic Arts loses the earnings game in Q2

Are video games a defensive industry at this point?

There are some who say that video games will be just fine during the economic crisis. Of course, you have to consider who's spouting this idea when evaluating it. According to this article, gaming giants Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Sony (NYSE: SNE) believe that the upcoming holiday season won't be so tough on their PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 consoles. They agree with some pundits who think that people will look to drop several hundred dollars on a system as opposed to spending even more on bigger-ticket items such as a vacation. If people cocoon in their homes during this terrible time period to save cash, then they may want to play video games. That's one dimension of the argument.

The other is that consumers may turn to escapist fantasies and casual diversions to take their minds off their problems. In this sense, video games are no different than the movie industry, which is supposed to be resistant to recessions. Again, companies like Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) make content that can immerse you in worlds that are different (and more fun) than the one you currently exist in.

Both arguments make sense. Many video games are like movies these days, so comparing them to the film industry is important. And video games definitely are cheaper than a trip to Walt Disney World. However, there are a few things to keep in mind when thinking about these concepts and making an investment decision. First, we are arguably in an environment that we've never seen before. The variables are so different these days. Who's to say how recession-proof movies are going to be, let alone video games? An Xbox 360 can be had for $200. So what if it's less than a trip to Mickey Mouse's castle? Consumers will still be aching. At the very least, if parents don't cut back in terms of buying Johnny a system for Christmas (and they may not, since parents oftentimes refuse to disappoint their kids during the season of Santa), then surely the households who already have one system installed will think twice about installing a second system (yes, many households have multiple systems).

Continue reading Are video games a defensive industry at this point?

THQ below $10: Is it worth your time?

THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), arch competitor of Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), closed under $10 per share on Monday; $9.90 to be exact. It hit a new 52-week low of $9.30 intraday. I've got to admit, THQ under $10 a share sparks my interest.

I also must concede that my interest might be a bit on the irrational side to some degree. After all, I was a big fan of THQ during the time oh so long ago when all its cylinders were firing and the stock was a pretty cool investment. Now that it's hit the magical spectrum of single-digit, does that event alone changes things on a fundamental level? Am I just looking for a reason to buy a stock I once liked and praised?

As of late, problems have befallen THQ. Questions about the quality of its pipeline and delays of key video-game product have plagued the publisher. Indeed, THQ was a weakening company and a weak stock. Why invest in THQ when Activision Blizzard exists? There's definitely sound logic to such thinking. However, THQ is around book value at $10 per share. And the fact that THQ has some cool intellectual properties at its disposal (Destroy All Humans!, Saint's Row, etc.), as well as a cool licensing partner in Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and its Nickelodeon characters, means you've got to figure that the company might start becoming a value at some point.

Continue reading THQ below $10: Is it worth your time?

Did Take-Two make a wise move?

So, Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) has had enough of arbitrage. According to reports, management decided that it will remain an independent entity after all. You'll recall that the software publisher was being courted by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS). That relationship never panned out. Take-Two said "give us more money, EA." And EA apparently said "no way." It was interesting while it lasted. And if you had sold out of Take-Two when the offer was made oh-so-long ago, you made money. Hopefully you aren't still holding the shares.

I don't know why Take-Two didn't decide to cash out, especially when it was becoming apparent that the economy was headed for a severe downturn. I mean, you would think that executives in a company such as this would have more information than I do and would have known where things may have been headed, or at least have a strong indication. Let's face it: Take-Two is an investment/trading idea based on the notion, in part at least, that it's going to be taken out at some point. Otherwise, you've got one big intellectual property, Grand Theft Auto, to get excited about. Now, truth be told, I know and you know that the company has a little more than just that. There's BioShock, for one thing. But this is the perception on Wall Street, and it's a hard one to fight. And since I already own Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), I don't think, at this juncture at least, I'd want to invest in a second game-software publisher. I'd be going for a shorter-term trade. That line of thinking kind of makes me wonder why management didn't decide to trade out of Take-Two months ago. Oh, I forgot. Greed. Hey, greed might be good, but it isn't always smart.

I don't think Take-Two will remain independent forever. It'll be bought out sometime in the future. Someone will want Grand Theft Auto. Will EA come back to the table? That's a strong possibility. Maybe Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) or Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) will make a bid. Doesn't matter who it is, it'll happen. Just not now, maybe. However, I personally wouldn't consider entering Take-Two's shares until they drop much further from current levels. Below $9 a share would be a cool price.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

Activision Blizzard is no hero to Warner Music Group

As an Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) shareholder, I'm extremely gratified by the unqualified success of the Guitar Hero franchise. However, I'm none too happy about statements made by Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) CEO Edgar Bronfman Jr. who believes that Activision Blizzard should be paying more to license the songs. When I first heard about that, I admit, I became a bit worried. After all, if the publisher has to pony up a higher amount of cash to the music industry, then there could be pressure on the stock.

Well, I'm glad I caught a blog post by Eliot Van Buskirk for Wired over at Portfolio.com. Looks like Activision Blizzard CEO Robert Kotick isn't taking too kindly to those in the music industry who suggest his company needs to share a higher percentage of the spoils. He basically told Bronfman Jr. to chill out, suggesting that the impact of his software platform on music sales for artists that are contained within it almost argues that the publisher shouldn't pay a dime to the music industry.

The shareholder in me says "right on, Bob!" In this digital age, the music industry needs all the help it can get in promoting its artist roster. Gone are the days when consumers opened their wallets for physical CDs. That aspect of the music industry is dying in favor of the iTunes model that powers Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and its iPod empire. Therefore, I agree with Buskirk's assertion that the boat shouldn't be rocked here. Music companies should just accept the licensing structure as it exists, look at it as a loss leader if they feel that's what it is, and just be satisfied with the ancillary promotion they receive.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard is no hero to Warner Music Group

Take-Two should have taken EA's offer

I was a little surprised when I heard that the deal between Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) was called off. Yes, I had my doubts, but I thought that in the end, EA might raise its offer so that it could get its corporate paws on the Grand Theft Auto franchise. EA has been looking for ways to grow in a world where Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) is making waves with Guitar Hero and World of Warcraft. That company's stock has done well over the past year, while EA's has suffered.

EA may be walking away for now, but I'm not sure this is the last that we'll be hearing of Take-Two being in arbitrage play. Management clearly wants to sell the publisher. Thing is, it should have simply taken the offer it received earlier in the year. Now, shareholders will have to wait for another bid. Who knows when that will be, considering that it's been reported that software sales may be heading for a slowdown (I'm sure EA must have taken this into consideration when leaving the table).

But what does this mean for video-game investors? I believe investors should put Take-Two on a watch list and pray for the publisher's shares to drift down toward the 52-week low. I would not take a chance on the stock at these levels. Ideally, I would love to see Take-Two trading below $10 per share before buying. Right now the 52-week low is $13.53. Getting to single digits might be wishful thinking, but you never know the way this market is behaving. And considering that management passed up what was most likely a decent offer in the first place, one has to wonder if Wall Street might be in a punishing mood.

No matter what, Take-Two will be bought out. And if one could get in at a very low price, then the speculative risk/reward scenario might be attractive. EA might come back at some point, too. In fact, I expect the company to, although that is purely my own educated guess. I continue to own ATVI as my video-game play, but will be keeping my eye on Take-Two and its price action.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

Take-Two takes analysts for a ride

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is riding high on its Grand Theft Auto IV title. The popular game (big understatement) helped push the top-line during the third quarter to a better than 100% gain, coming in at $433 million. As for the bottom line, forget about it -- that was blown out of the water. On an adjusted basis, net income was 93 cents per share versus a loss of $0.62 in the year-ago period.

According to Briefing.com, this simply was far more than any analyst anticipated. The bottom line bested estimates by 39 cents! Most shareholders probably anticipated Take-Two going beyond Wall Street's expectations, but I'm not sure they thought that the publisher could pull such an order of magnitude off. Nevertheless, management believes that next quarter might not be as hot as first anticipated due to some timing issues. So they guided lower for Q4. This might explain, in part, the lack of excitement surrounding the stock at the close of the after-hours session on Thursday. The stock ended up with a 0.5% gain in price.

However, all is not lost. While Take-Two thinks Q4 might not be the best thing since sliced bread, it is confident that it will be able to go beyond the original outlook for the fiscal year. Take-Two says it will deliver between $2.08 and $2.12 in adjusted earnings per share for the year. Wall Street was counting on $1.81 per share for the fiscal year. With the stock trading around the $23 mark, this would imply that the shares could be cheap.

Continue reading Take-Two takes analysts for a ride

Will 'Spore' help Electronic Arts' fortunes?

You know, I keep hearing about this Spore game. It's set to be released by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to the Nintendo DS and to computer platforms later this week. There's been so much buzz surrounding it, and for good reason. Not only does it sound pretty neat and imaginative, but it was designed by Will Wright, the man who brought the world the Sim franchise. As I understand it, the player's goal is to guide a microbe through the process of evolution until it becomes a society blessed with enough intelligence so as to confer the capability of interstellar travel. Wild stuff, right? Remember, Wright is a genius, and the Sim games have certainly brought in a lot of dough for EA.

But how will the game be received? Is it too complex, too brainy for most gamers? Or, will Spore take the whole Sim concept into a new stratosphere of success? Are we witnessing the birth of a new, marketing-friendly super-franchise that will appeal to a broad demographic? Like I say, the buzz is strong. Yet, I didn't realize the title was coming out this week until I read this recent press release, which is using some celebrities to promote the game. Go figure, I guess.

I think Spore will be a hit, but I'm not sure it will be a big enough hit to move EA's stock back to its 52-week high, certainly. The publisher has such a deep portfolio of games, so this one title won't necessarily move the needle. But the celebration of Spore forced me to take another look at EA and wonder if the company's stock might be an interesting play ahead of the holiday season.

Continue reading Will 'Spore' help Electronic Arts' fortunes?

GameStop delivers incredible growth, but stock just won't react

Investors have to find this frustrating. I know I hate it when this happens to one of my stocks. GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) issued its Q2 numbers today. The numbers were a thing of beauty for the most part. Yet, the stock goes nowhere. And yes, I know this is a bad market day, but still, I thought a little pop was in order. As it is, shares are down about 1% as I write.

Sales increased almost 35% to $1.8 billion. The bottom line saw an increase of well over 100%, coming in at $0.34 per diluted share. According to this article, expectations were for $0.28 per share. So, do you see where I'm coming from? Expectations were beat, and growth was stellar... come on, investors, give the stock a bid! Granted, the article mentioned something I noticed as well: the gross margin declined. Okay, it declined. But same-store sales simply rocketed like a spacecraft at a growth rate of 20% during Q2. That has to be worth something ahead of the holiday-selling season. Games from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (ADR) (OTC: NTDOY) powered the quarter. And guess what? They're going to power the next two quarters, too. We have new iterations of Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, and Rock Band to look forward to. Oh, and Lego Batman. Seriously, don't discount that latter title. A lot of Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3s and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360s will move off shelves, and that little system called the Wii is going to be the hottest console again this Christmas. Oh, and then there's the DS. GameStop sells 'em all.

GameStop beat its own guidance, and I think it has a great chance of continuing to beat its own guidance in the near future. That aforementioned article mentions that investors are concerned with slowing growth in the video-game universe. Okay, point well taken, I suppose. But GameStop is such a great brand in its sector, and consumers have come to know it as the go-to place for entertainment software. And as hardware continues to become cheaper, and as the installed user base rises, GameStop should benefit. The shares haven't done well this year, declining over 30% on the year-to-date timeframe as of this writing. The stock is much closer to its 52-week low than to its 52-week high. It's weak. But, I also think it's cheap. If you have a long time horizon, you may want to check GameStop out. If you're a quicker trader, you may want to wait for the stock to come back about $5 toward its 52-week low (if that happens).

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.

Will Electronic Arts ever take Take-Two?

Can you believe the drama going on between Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) has dragged on for this long? I can't. According to this article, EA has let its current bid expire and intends on checking out additional stats behind the company in an effort to think more about what Take-Two has to offer and what its true value might be. The company behind the Grand Theft Auto series of mature-rated games is offering to give EA a presentation that includes non-public data.

EA really wants this deal. So does Take-Two. EA believes that it needs a super-franchise that goes beyond its sports dominance, and it feels that Grand Theft Auto would be one heck of an asset to own. It's true. EA would probably benefit from the title, and it might get the company's stock out of its current doldrums. And in a world where Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) is benefiting greatly from an acquisition and a merger -- Guitar Hero and Vivendi Games, respectively -- one cannot blame EA, I suppose, for keeping the dream alive.

EA is in something of a bad spot because, at this point, it probably will have to raise the bid on Take-Two. I think the market will ultimately be disappointed if EA doesn't get Grand Theft Auto (and BioShock, for that matter). It will be perceived as a failure on management's part, and shareholders will wonder where the growth will be coming from, and what catalysts can be counted on to drive the stock price higher in this tough economic environment.

Continue reading Will Electronic Arts ever take Take-Two?

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 10:08 AM

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