This post is part of Japan: A Special Report for Investors.

"Japan's tsunami has struck worldwide," says Richard Moroney, the editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, which has maintained a model portfolio of blue chip stocks for over 50 years.

Here, he reviews a number of the top buy recommendations in the newsletter's portfolios to determine the potential risk posed by the recent tragic developments in Japan.

Stocks cited as "Focus List Buys" are are those issues that the service expect to significantly outperform the market over the next 12 months.

The Japanese devastation is almost incomprehensible. First there was the earthquake, followed by the tsunami, followed by radiation. It seems the disaster has no end. The people are suffering beyond imagination. It will be a long time for the country to heal. In the north, it will take decades.

Investors are trying to understand what the economic aftershocks will be. Which industries will be hurt and which ones will benefit? Because the crises change from day to day, it's extremely difficult to ascertain. But there are a few themes that seem to be emerging. Some of these will be short lived, such as the closing of the Japanese auto manufacturers. While they will lose days of production, the long-term effect will be minor, unless supplies are interrupted, causing further delays.

Analyst Upgrades

• BB&T (BBT) and Aflac (AFL) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Zhongpin (HOGS) to neutral from reduce at Global Hunter.
• Marathon Oil (MRO), Noble Energy (NBL) and Manulife Financial (MFC) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Comerica (CMA) to buy from neutral at Rochdale.

Ten weeks into the year and never a dull moment. Pondering the remaining 42 weeks and beyond, where will value be found? We know that "my pal Warren" is on the prowl waist high in Berkshire Hathaway cash to invest, and he is on record as chomping on the bit to do so. Just this morning it was reported that Buffett had closed a $9 billion deal to buy Lubrizol Corp. (LZ), the Wickliffe, Ohio-based maker of engine lubricants.

More evidence of this abounds: Wednesday March 2, (Reuters) - US-based Berkshire Hathaway aims to enter the Indian insurance sector as a corporate agent of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance.

This is part 1 of a series examining the insurance market for expansion, stock valuations, potential risks and opportunities, excluding health care focused companies, a whole other breed of enterprise.

Totally unsexy play Aflac Inc. (AFL), an insurer that I first wrote about on May 28, 2009, at a price of $36.07, has progressed toward $60 this winter. I still like the stock at this stage, and here's why.

Aflac's 2011 revenue will likely increase an impressive 9% to 11%, including a solid performance in Japan (a major market for AFL, with more than 14 million policies), despite difficult comparisons and recovering consumer demand in the United States. Meanwhile, a $1.20 annual dividend adds to the attractive office.

Analyst Upgrades

• Athenahealth (ATHN), Ensco (ESV), Pride International (PDE) and Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• CIRCOR (CIR) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Shaw Group (SHAW) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• MGM Resorts (MGM) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) to buy from neutral, as well as Intrepid Potash (IPI) to neutral from underperform, at BofA/Merrill.
• Carlisle (CSL) to buy from neutral at SunTrust.

Analyst Upgrades

• NYSE Euronex (NYX) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• General Dynamics (GD) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Deere (DE), Parker-Hannifin (PH) and ExlService (EXLS) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Aflac (AFL) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Amdocs (DOX) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Juniper (JNPR) to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.
• Rudolph Tech (RTEC) and KLA-Tencor (KLAC) to perform from underperform at Oppenheimer.
• Hershey (HSY) and Pinnacle Entertainment (PNK) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Micron (MU) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.

This post is one in a series in which more than 60 newsletter advisors share their Top Stock Picks for 2011. This special report is courtesy of TheStockAdvisors.com.

"Aflac (AFL) represents a top year-ahead pick based on its solid operating momentum and modest valuation," says Richard Moroney.

The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts explains, "In our proprietary ranking system (known as Quadrix), the stock earns an Overall score of 99.

Looking for a shopping list of new stock ideas for 2011?

Each year for 28 years, TheStockAdvisors.com has turned to the nation's most respected and well-known newsletter advisors and asked them for their favorite investment ideas for the coming 12 months.

With 65 advisors participating in this year's survey, there's something for every type of investor, from high-quality blue chips to speculative home runs.

No joke: Uncertain economic times require a boring stock of two. And insurer Aflac Inc. (AFL), which I first wrote about on May 28, 2009 at a price of $36.07, fits the bill.

Aflac's stock has vectored higher this autumn, venturing all the way up to about $59 from $44, and a recent pull-back looks like a correction. Here's why:

Aflac's 2011 revenue will likely increase an impressive 8-11%, including a strong performance in Japan (a major market for AFL, with more than 14 million policies), and recovering consumer demand in the United States. Also, a $1.20 annual dividend adds to the positive story.

I first wrote about Aflac Inc. (AFL) on May 28, 2009, at a price of $36.07, and the insurer has seen its stock cycle in a wide range this summer. But those who have endured the roller-coaster should benefit. Here's why.

Aflac's 2010 revenue will likely increase an impressive 8% to 11%, including a strong performance in Japan (a major market for Aflac, with more than 14 million policies), and gradually recovering consumer demand in the United States. Meanwhile, a $1.20 annual dividend adds to the attractive story.

AFLAC (AFL - option chain) shares are rising today after the company announced this morning that it has sold all its holdings of Greek sovereign debt and reduced exposure to hybrid securities, a move which assuaged investors' fears that the company was exposed to too many risky assets. Also in the announcement, AFL reiterated its growth forecast of 9-12% for this year. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AFL.

AFL opened this morning at $44.12. So far today the stock has hit a low of $44.07 and a high of $46.20. As of 12:20, AFL is trading at $44.98 up $1.39 (3.2%). The chart for AFL looks neutral and S&P gives AFL a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

"For much of the market's rally since March 2009, the best-performing stocks were those that tilted toward the risky side. That is about to change," says Chuck Carlson.

The editor of The DRIP Investor explains, "Quality stocks -- larger companies with consistent track records, strong finances, industry leadership positions, and stable and growing dividends -- should lead the market going forward.

"Quality stocks now offer good relative value versus more aggressive stocks, and I suspect investors will be more focused on a value over the next 12 to 24 months.

"Fear is back and it can be seen in the internals. So what is one to do? What we always do: identify quality, establish value, and take advantage of opportunity when it presents itself," suggests Kelley Wright.

The editor of Investment Quality Trends -- an advisory service that assesses blue chip stocks by analyzing their historic dividend yield levels -- adds, "While all ships go out with the tide, value is eventually rewarded. Remember, we are in this for the long haul.

"Our current Timely Ten -- featured below -- is our reasoned expectation based on our methodology and experience for what we believe will perform best over the next five years. Do we believe that all 10 will go up simultaneously or immediately? Of course not.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Aflac Inc. (AFL) higher Q1 earnings were better than analysts expected, due in part to a stronger yen.
• Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) Q3 EPS were the same as a year ago and revenue inched higher.
• BlackRock Inc. (BLK) higher Q1 earnings fell short of analysts' expectations due to acquisition-related charges.
• Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) posted record revenue in Q1 and swung to a profit from a year-ago loss.
• Burger King Holdings Inc. (BKC) topped Wall Street's Q3 earnings estimate, but same-store sales fell.