Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman and economic 'Maestro,' spoke this morning at a packed Radio City Music Hall. In a very Wall-Streety charcoal grey suit and red tie, the man who presided over two decades of nearly uninterrupted growth in the U.S. seemed relaxed and happy -- there to bask in his glory, not raise the alarm.

That doesn't mean he had all good news to tell to the 5,000 attendees of the World Business Forum. Greenspan had a few basic concerns (which will be familiar to those who have heard his latest thoughts as he makes the media rounds to promote his memoir, "The Age of Turbulence"):

* The housing market is going to continue to decline. It's simple really -- there is a lot of unsold inventory of newly constructed homes still coming on the market. Builders will cut prices to sell and that will drive down the broader real estate market. How significant will the declines be? He wasn't sure.

* The odds of a recession are between 30% and 50% (or 42.35%, Greenspan said as a joke). In March he thought the odds were only 30%, but following the crisis in the credit markets, he now thinks it could be as high as 50%. The deciding factor will be how the stock market holds up. Since it is recently hitting new highs even as economic growth slows, things are looking pretty good.

Continue reading Greenspan says housing market will fall, worries over income disparity

Greenspan says housing market will fall, worries over income disparity originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Oct 2007 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan's new memoir tops at Amazon.com (AMZN) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Sep 2007 16:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Greenspan has harsh words on Bush

Greenspan has harsh words on Bush originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Sep 2007 15:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan's $8 million (his advance) book, The Age of Turbulence, is taking center stage. I found four interesting observations:

• Assessing Presidents. Having served under five Presidents, Greenspan's observations intrigued me. He liked Clinton the best -- citing his hunger for data and his commitment to long-term economic growth. He seemed to admire Reagan's special ability to come up with a pithy phrase to summarize his policy views. And he was disappointed with George W. Bush -- citing his willingness to sacrifice a balanced budget for increased odds at reelection.
• Shaping history's verdict on him. He tries to influence the historical record to escape responsibility for his role in many bad economic decisions. For example, he supported the $1.6 trillion worth of Bush tax cuts early in the current administration which contributed to this decade's budget deficits. But in the book, he tries to weasel out of that. And he acts in the book as though he was surprised that his decision to give away money -- setting the Fed Funds rate at 1% in mid-2003 and keeping it there for a year -- contributed to the housing bubble whose bursting is responsible for the current problems in the housing and credit markets.

Continue reading Greenspan rates the presidents and tries to shape history's verdict of him

Greenspan rates the presidents and tries to shape history's verdict of him originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Sep 2007 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Who Knew? Greenspan didn't realize subprime could hurt larger economy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Sep 2007 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.