Crop protection and seed company Syngenta Ag's (NYSE: SYT) stock has underperformed since the June 16, 2009 Buy recommendation at $47.82.

The stock did break through the psychologically-significant $50 level, but it failed at level and has since fallen back to the $45-range. In the process, a double-top -- a bearish sign -- has formed.

Monsanto's (NYSE: MON) stock has not cooperated since the June 15, 2009 Buy recommendation, as the shares have drifted about 10% lower.

Still, nothing has changed regarding MON's value proposition, hence I'm Reiterating my June 15, 2009 Buy recommendation, when shares were at $84.97. Higher-value-added, next-generation seeds will see substantial demand increases as the economic recovery progresses. Moreover, there is ample room to expand international sales, as emerging markets continue to develop their agriculture sectors and seek higher per acre yields.

Agricultural manufacturer Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is trading slightly lower in after hours trading this afternoon after the company posted lower than expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter.

Going into this afternoon's release, analysts had been expecting to see the company show earnings of 35 cents per share, but the company came in well below this estimate, with actual earnings of just 23 cents per share. During the same period last year the company had earnings of $2.65 per share.

I was reading through some articles this weekend, when I found one from BusinessWeek, questioning the viability of herbicide producer Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON).

The article focuses on the past six months, a period when MON shares have lagged behind the broader market, and then wonders if the stock is still a viable long-term investment. The story was prompted by last Thursday's earnings forecast for $3.10 to $3.30 per share in fiscal 2010, which was well short of the $4.10 that the Street expects.

With the Shanghai index plunging 20.6% last week, some China small-cap stocks are now trading at attractive valuations. One of my favorites is China Green Agriculture (AMEX: CGA).

China Green Agriculture is fertilizer company based in Xian, China that has been on the rise. Shares are up 286% year-to-date as investors gobbled up the stock. The most recent financial results, released in May, showed a 99% increase in revenues, and a similarly impressive 133% increase in net income.

Shares of seed and agricultural products company Monsanto Company (NYS: MON) plunged from $92 to $79 yesterday when the company lowered guidance. Monsanto has long been a favorite play on the growing demand for food. It's high-tech, genetically manipulated seeds can produce higher crop yields. No doubt, the food future looks bleak and that's good for Monsanto. But how long will investors have to wait before demand hockey sticks for these seeds and Monsanto can make higher prices stick?

Quietly, chocolate companies have been snapping up little makers of organic and fair trade chocolate; Cadbury, PLC (NYSE: CBY) started the trend by buying Green and Black's in 2005, and then Hershey (NYSE: HSY) jumped on the bandwagon, buying Dagoba Organic Chocolate in 2006.

Since then, fairly traded and organic chocolate bars have become more and more popular among consumers; while exact numbers are hard to find, organic chocolate sales have more than quadrupled since 2000 and were $94 million in 2007. Fair trade chocolate sales have been nearly doubling on a year-over-year basis since 2000.

On Friday, Standard & Poor's lowered its corporate credit rating for ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG). The ratings firm lowered CAG's rating to "BBB" from "BBB+" and removed all ratings on the company from CreditWatch with negative implications, attributing the move to weak credit and high operating costs.

S&P noted that higher operating costs have hurt margins, particularly in CAG's consumer foods segment. This part of CAG's business brought in 64% of the firm's fiscal 2008 revenue.

S&P believes that CAG will "modestly improve" credit measures from current levels during the next two years. S&P could revise CAG's outlook to negative if the firm becomes more aggressive in its financial policy. Currently, CAG's outlook is stable.

Agricultural entity Monsanto (NYSE: MON) reported Q2 numbers on Thursday. While some metrics were down, I came away from the earnings release thinking that the company is probably a good long-term holding. Short-term could be a different story, though, as the stock has had a run-up recently.

Sales increased 8% in the second quarter, but profits on a dollar basis decreased 3%. On an adjusted basis, however, net income beat Wall Street's expectations. Analysts were looking for $2.07 per share. Monsanto delivered $2.16 per share. Excellent.

The world's largest maker of farm equipment is due to report earnings on February 18 and the outlook is generally bleak. All of the major drivers behind Deere's (NYSE: DE) formidable business appear to be headed into a tailspin. Global agricultural commodity prices have come down significantly from peaks in 2007 and 2008, leaving farmers with less money to spend.

Daryll Ray, University of Tennessee professor and director of the college's Agricultural Policy Analysis Center, spoke to a group of Kansas farmers to present his views on world agriculture production.

Ray cautioned farmers not to look to agriculture as a continuous source of economic prosperity. He cited the current economic crisis and warned that future corn prices, instead of near $4.00 to $5.00 per bushel, may go in the opposite direction. He noted that Brazil and Ukraine are expanding their agricultural production. For years, farmers looked to China as a big export market. China, however, has been a net exporter of grain since 1996. China does import, but they export more than they import.

Secretary of Agriculture, Adrian Polansky, also spoke at the meeting and pointed out the benefits of ethanol production. He said that ethanol plants were employing upwards of 235 people in small towns in rural Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa.

Do you expect food prices to decline this year?

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Trading near its all-time high, McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) -- my top idea for 2009 -- is a true relative-strength leader," says Ryan Detrick.

The technical analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research, explains, "With the shares near their all-time high, MCD is a true relative-strength leader. Technically, the stock continues to find support from its rising 20-month moving average, as this trendline has provided support since mid-2003.

"McDonalds is the world's largest fast-food chain, with more than 31,000 restaurants worldwide. Given the record job losses and deteriorating worldwide economy, MCD should continue to do well as consumers will downgrade to more affordable dining options.

"Or as CEO Jim Skinner put it, 'McDonald's seems well positioned for recession. In bad times, people think twice about where to spend money when going out for food.'

The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), the combined Cargill Crop Nutrition and IMC Global Inc., began trading as a Fortune 500 company immediately after its 2004 IPO, and became a dominant player in the fertilizer business.

In just a few short years, Mosaic would be in prime position to ride a global boom in agricultural crop demand that resulted in its shares skyrocketing more than $130 from trough to peak.

From a valuation standpoint, the move higher was completely justified and rational -- up to a point. When the hedge fund momentum investors climbed aboard, astute investors knew that the rapid rise was due for a correction.

The stock sold off hard during the summer, which culminated in a complete washout due to the credit crisis and global economic meltdown. MOS shares fell back to the mid-$30s.

As is often the case, the selling went too far and had more to do with forced liquidations instead of rational valuation metrics.

Shares of Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON) moved up strongly in premarket trading this morning, and opened over 8% higher as buyers move into the stock following strong first quarter numbers and raised full year guidance.

Going into this morning's earnings announcement, analysts had been expecting to the see Monsanto, which supplies agricultural products for farmers in the United States and internationally, to show first quarter earnings of $0.59 per share, but the company blew out analyst estimates by reporting $0.98 per share for its first quarter.

Looking at company revenue for the quarter, Monsanto also shattered analyst estimates by raking in $2.65 in the quarter as opposed to estimates of $2.41 billion, an increase of 29% for the company.

The company also raised fully year guidance and the stock is benefiting from that too. Previously, Monsanto had issued full year 2009 guidance of $4.20 to $4.40, but lifted that estimate today to a range between $4.40 and $4.50.

Shares of the stock have opened over 8% higher, and by 9:45 am jumped over 15%, adding $11.10 to $84.32. It closed yesterday at $73.46.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Jeff Macke.

Good Morning from New York, where the coffee is thick as mud and only slightly less bitter than the news from Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM). The Japanese automaker said it would be shutting down production for 11 days in the face of falling demand. There are also unconfirmed reports that Japan's finest will dump its planned expansions in Russia and Thailand, which I view as "good news" and "bad news," respectively.

Toyota shook off horrible sales reports yesterday. but there's only so much shaking it can do. These reports are like the straws on a camel's back...too many and eventually the load becomes too great. So is the straw that breaks the camel's back factored in to Toyota's stock? Watch TM today.

Your other tell du jour is The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) which is slightly higher pre-market after reporting last night. Mosaic posted an earnings beat and horrific outlook. That outlook is one traders should be expecting from most, if not all, of the Global Growth names which have been rallying sharply of late after crashing in '08. Have traders looked past the earnings slump this year or are they in denial about just how bad it's going to get? The guess here is "probably a little denial and a touch of forward looking."

Whatever your guess, the trading in Toyota and Mosaic today will offer a decent near-term trading tell for how stocks on the bleeding edge of the demand collapse.