The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.
Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.
Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.
Agrium (NYSE: AGU), North America's third largest fertilizer producer, closed at $38.78 Thursday. AGU November option implied volatility of 113 is above its 26-week average of 70 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Potash (NYSE: POT) closed at $84.71 Thursday. POT November option implied volatility of 102 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA), a producer of nitrogen products, closed at $21.82 Thursday. TRA November option implied volatility of 110 is above its 26-week average of 80, suggesting larger price movement.
Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), a producer of crop nutrients, closed at $37.81 Thursday. MOS November option implied volatility of 109 is above its 26-week average of 76 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movements.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Here's the answer every hedge fund knows: It will not let you raise numbers in the out years.
Right now there is a tremendous struggle going on about near-term and far-term earnings growth and what we can expect to see. Everyone knows when Mosaic and Potash report next week that the numbers will be beaten and the estimates raised.
But so what? If you scrap the ethanol mandate or if people even think that it will be scrapped, you will see grains collapse just as quickly as oil collapsed when we found a level we didn't need it -- remember, we don't "need" ethanol, but it is mandated.
Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models that have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. Moreover, there are few more-favorable global trends than food production, and with the above in mind, Agrium is worth a review.
Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is the No. 1 producer and seller of fertilizers in North America, including nitrogen, as well as potash and phosphate products.
The company has an 8-million-ton nutrient production capacity, but production is only half the equation: AGU also has more than 400 retail outlets in the U.S. and South America -- the back-end side of the revenue equation.
The top U.S. retailer of crop supplies, Agrium's products are also sold in Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Asia. Analysts really like AGU's plan to expand, and hopefully double, this $2 billion revenue stream within five years, stemming from emerging market demand. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for AGU are $8.21/$9.53.
Agrium (NYSE: AGU) is a leading producer and marketer of agricultural nutrients, in North and South America. The firm's plants can produce more than eight million tons of fertilizers per year. These are sold to wholesale distributors and through more than four hundred company retail outlets. Agrium also participates in a joint venture with Repsol YPF (NYSE: REP), operating Argentina's largest nitrogen plant. Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) is a major competitor.
The company pleased investors last week, when it raised its Q2 EPS guidance from $1.92-$2.22 to $2.80-$3.00. The Street had been expecting $2.50. Management attributed the positive outlook to strong global crop prices and the resulting solid performances by both its retail and wholesale operations. BMO Capital Markets subsequently reiterated its "outperform" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $125.
And yet my best indicator, the Standard & Poor's oscillator, which you can order from their Web site, is saying you cannot be short here and should be doing some buying. The oscillator, when it has been at minus 5, has called a bottom almost every time in the last decade, plus or minus a day or two, and a percent or even two, and I have long since learned not to see through it.
"We think we've seen the worst and will likely see some improvement in the economy going forward," says growth stock specialist Harry Domash, editor of Winning Investing.
Among his buy recommendations, the advisor looks at two agriculture plays: Agrium (NYSE: AGU), a producer of fertilizers, and the diversified exchange-traded fund, PowerShares DB Commodity (ASE: DBC).
"Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Agrium is a major North American producer and marketer of fertilizers. Agrium operates plants in Canada, the U.S., and in Argentina. Its major product is nitrogen fertilizer but it also makes potash and phosphate products.
"Agrium sells to wholesalers and through more than 800 company-owned retail stores in the U.S., Canada, and South America. Its stores also sell seed and other farm supplies.
"Agrium just recently completed its acquisition of UAP Holding, which had operated 370 distribution and storage facilities North America. Everything related to agriculture is booming, and Agrium, not counting its UAP acquisition, is growing sales around 30% annually.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: StoneMor Partners, Suntech Power and Tesoro were today's noteworthy initiations:
Morgan Keegan initiated StoneMor Partners (NASDAQ: STON) with a Market Perform rating. The firm has a low level of confidence in STON's financial projections given its vulnerability to changes in state and local regulations, and financial reporting complexities.
Jesup & Lamont initiated Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) with a Buy based on the company's leading position in solar PV, industry growth and polysilicon supply agreements in place.
Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) was assumed with an Underweight rating at JP Morgan. The firm expects the West Coast margins to remain weak given the decline in the gasoline demand and capacity increases of the majors.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
RBC Capital initiated Agrium (NYSE: AGU) with an Outperform rating and $115 target.
Readers of this space know that the preferred tack is to look for well-capitalized companies with competitive advantages in sectors with secular, long-term growth trends. One select sector has been oil/oil services, and another right near the top has been fertilizer producers, primarily Potash, Mosaic, and Agrium, first reviewed in December 2007-January 2008.
To be sure, the sector has been bid-up, as a wider community discovers the value of fertilizer and companion products amid the likely substantial increase in global food demand in the decade ahead.
Too late to get in on a fertilizer play? Hardly. P/Es are higher, so entry point is key, but with the above in mind, here's a revised review of the fertilizer producers, with the updated Sell/Stop Loss levels. They're ranked by risk, with the top stock, POT, being the lowest risk.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the bull story here has more causes than just a weak greenback.
Better seeds and more fertilizer. That's it. Those are the technology weapons in the war against food shortages caused in the short term by a worldwide obsession with biofuels (we are the worst offender, of course) and in the long term by the increased affluence in China and India, which leads to more nutritious, protein-filled diets.
Both forces, when combined with worldwide droughts and failed harvests, not augmented by the U.S. -- we are late to start with our corn season -- are driving prices up to ridiculous levels. I have no doubt that if tomorrow the president of the United States said he was suspending the biofuel mandates for ethanol that we would see a collapse in food pricing. But I also have no doubt that this inept administration could never figure that out.
So, the solution comes to all of the stocks that were crushed yesterday: Monsanto (NYSE: MON) (Cramer's Take), Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take), Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) (Cramer's Take) and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take). Without better seeds that produce higher yields, without more fertilizer that increases yields, we are going to be facing a long-term continuation of these price increases and the attendant inflation and food riots. Inflation, by the way, that has nothing to do with the Fed, unless the Fed is also a big granary hoarding wheat and corn.
All it takes is some news to make you realize the risk involved in smallcap investing. That news came in the form of a horrific earnings report last night from Origin Agritech (NASDAQ: SEED), showing revenues and margins decreasing along with guidance that was more than 50% below the estimates of the one analyst that covers the company.
I often advise against trusting any company whatsoever, but it's rare that one lets investors down so greatly. I had no position in the stock, but along with Converted Organics (NASDAQ: COIN) and Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN), I profiled Origin back in January as an up and coming agriculture stock. Since then, two of those three stocks have broken out to new highs in a similar fashion to this hot sector's leaders like Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), Monsanto (NYSE: MON) and Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU).
Performance aside, those billion dollar behemoths are established companies, with global investors and brands, while these new kids on the block are the exact opposite. Plagued by having few products, fund raising problems and debt issues, this 50% shortfall exemplifies just one of the many issues with which small-cap companies struggle. I mean they are really fighting for lives! And that's why they are priced the way they are and derided by Wall Street.
Given the market's continued choppy / consolidating pattern (or perhaps worse), its makes sense to add a defensive stock or two, and one worth an evaluation is Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU).
Agrium is the No. 1 producer and seller of fertilizers for North America, including nitrogen, as well potash and phosphate products.
The company has an 8-million-ton nutrient production capacity, but production is only half the equation: AGU also has more than 400 retail outlets in the U.S. and South America – the back-end side of the revenue equation.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says not even the collapse of ethanol can touch the planting renaissance we're seeing.
The agriculture bull market had been linked to ethanol. Turns out that ethanol is only one piece of the puzzle. What we are seeing for everything from fertilizer to farm equipment to seeds is that there are so many uses and calls on crops that we are having a planting renaissance that hasn't been seen in years.
We have an amazing moment in ag: we are supply-constrained for everything. Fertilizer demand is far exceeding supply, so you get an Agrium (NYSE: AGU) (Cramer's Take) buying a UAP (NASDAQ: UAPH) (Cramer's Take) -- and Agrium goes up.
Fewer players, tighter supply, no new plants coming on to speak of -- this is an amazing moment.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Banco Santander, Acorda Therapeutics, Agruim, Annaly Capital and ImmunoGen were today's noteworthy upgrades:
UBS upgraded shares of Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) to Buy from Neutral as they expect the acquisition of ABN Amro Holding NV (NYSE: ABN) assets in Brazil and Italy to boost earnings in 2008 and 2009.
Friedman Billings added Acorda Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ACOR) to its Top Picks List, as they have confidence in fampridine-SR's safety profile.
Agrium (NYSE: AGU) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC on valuation, as they believe the outlook for wholesale and retail is robust with all three nutrients at historical high levels.
Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, citing likely further FED cuts, benefits from recent secondary, and BVPS growth.
RBC Capital upgraded shares of ImmunoGen (NASDAQ: IMGN) to Outperform from Sector Perform based on valuation, growing pipeline, valuable technology platform, and potential as an acquisition candidate.
The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.
Agrium
Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models that have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. Moreover, there are few more-favorable global trends than food production, and with the above in mind, Agrium is worth a review.
Agrium
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