BusinessWeek reports that Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) has repeated its threat not to bid on the $35 billion competition to supply an airborne refueling tanker to the Air Force. This is a competition that pits a Republican presidential candidate and his lobbyist former finance chair on the dole of a French aircraft company and its Alabama partner against the future prospects of a Democratically controlled Congress and White House that would tend to favor Boeing -- which has many workers in Washington state.
By threatening not to bid, Boeing is taking many big risks. The Air Force may decide to keep the terms of the competition the same -- bids due October 1 -- and contract wrap up before New Year's Day. If Boeing does not bid and the competition proceeds, EADS, parent of Airbus, and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) -- with many of its workers in the Republican-leaning Alabama -- would win the bid uncontested. If the Air Force extends the process another four months -- which Boeing would prefer -- there is a chance that the Air Force would still end up choosing the French company.
But Boeing is gambling that the odds of a more favorable outcome are greater if it threatens not to bid. Boeing thinks that Congress will not want only one bid for the Tanker and that Congress and the White House are likely to be controlled by the Democratic party in January. With the French lobbyist-backed candidate in the Senate minority, Boeing will be in a better position to shape the Tanker competition in a way that favors its victory.




