In the space of a short month, the financial universe has been reordered.
Europe and the United States have launched major interventions plans to stabilize the global financial system. China has cut interest rates and pledged to help further to normalize financial flows. The Treasury Secretary of Russia and the U.S. Treasury Secretary are negotiating with the same goal in mind.
There's even been progress on New York's Second Avenue Subway Line, second only to, perhaps, the Burma Road in the length of time needed to complete a public works project.
Meanwhile, in Seattle . . . Boeing and the union representing machinists remain at loggerheads over a new contract, with work idled since September 6.
The work stoppage is costing Boeing (NYSE: BA) about $100 million per day, Bloomberg News reported. Even worse, lack of progress toward a new contract with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers could ultimately cost both sides much more, says stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer.
"If the strike is not settled in a week it invariably will force another roll-out delay in the first 787 Dreamliners, and in other airplanes, which would be major operational setbacks for Boeing and the machinists," Bauer said. "We're talking purchase delays and order cancellations by airlines. That will both lower projected revenue and result in lost jobs." Bauer added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in Boeing or any airplane manufacturer.
The Yankees fade during the stretch and don't make the play-offs. And Yankee Stadium, The House That Ruth Built, has closed, forever. Meanwhile, the stock market frequently looks like it wants to close.
Well, at least Boeing (NYSE: BA) is doing well. No, wait, Boeing too is closed, temporarily, due to a strike.
And now there's word that Boeing will reassess its 787 Dreamliner delivery schedule for the Japanese market once the ongoing strike ends, Reuters reported Tuesday.
Analysts fear that a failure of Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers to reach an agreement that has idled 27,000 machines could further push-back the 787's delivery timetable. The IAM strike began September 6. Boeing has already delayed delivery of its next-generation 787 airplane by 18 months. Boeing's shares rose $1.52 to $56.99 Tuesday afternoon amid a broader market rally.
Not a September Sinatra would sing about
"I guess this September was meant to be a month with all bad news, because it certainly seems that way," Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer said. "Boeing was one of the few bright spots on a pretty dismal domestic economic landscape. Great new products, solid orders, a good future for the company and the stock. But then management and the union can't agree on compensation. Pretty sad."
The government bailed out banks to the tune of $234 billion so far ($205 billion for Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) plus $29 billion for the Bear Stearns deal). Now General Motors (NYSE: GM) wants a $50 billion bailout (in the form of loan guarantees). So why not give the airline industry a bailout too?
After all, Wired reports that they're poised to lose $5.2 billion this year. Why? Well it doesn't help that "fuel bills have jumped $50 billion this year to an estimated $186 billion. Jet fuel now accounts for 36 percent of the industry's costs, up from 13 percent just six years ago," according to Wired. So why not bail out the industry -- after all it's hard to have a global economy if the airlines can't operate flights. To its credit, airlines seem to have had some success in pushing Congress to crack down on oil speculators -- oil's price has fallen from $147 to $101 in the last few months.
But since the administration seems to be in such a giving mood -- after all, our VP notes that his hero, Ronald Reagan, "proved deficits don't matter." And after bailing out banking, automobiles, and airlines, maybe they can get around to bailing out the three million homeowners in foreclosure and the 39% of mortgage holders whose properties are "underwater." Finally, why not use more taxpayer money to compensate investors whose stocks have lost 13% in the last year? Anybody else want a bailout?
If a company can't sell its products or services anywhere else, why not put them on eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY)? A least that will open up sales to a huge audience.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) is auctioning off more than 300 roundtrip flights and six vacation packages this week on eBay, with opening bids set between five cents and 10 cents."
While the move may get JetBlue a lot of attention, it also reinforces the idea that air travel has become a commodity. High fuel prices has forced airlines to cut services from meals to free baggage. The public is already annoyed with the quality of the flying experience. Offering tickets on eBay is like auctioning off old lawn mowers or used cars. Airline tickets get lumped in with all the other junk. The move also fuels the perception that the number of people flying is falling which allows airlines to dump all those extra seats.
If JetBlue has any sense, it would auction off better service. People would probably pay for that. The promotion could last longer than a week. Passengers would be reminded that airlines have something to offer beyond $5 peanuts and $50 checked bags.
With fuel prices coming down some, it was easy to think that the airline industry would be fine. But then one of the largest airlines in Europe went under.
According to the AP, "Alitalia has been losing some $3 million a day - hurt by labor unrest, competition from budget airlines and high fuel prices." That does not sound entirely unlike some U.S. airlines.
Oil is still above $115 a barrel and that is probably going to go higher, at least in the short term. Airlines would have been slaughtered at $140, but they may still have trouble surviving with crude at its current levels.
Coupled with rising fuel, Alitalia was brought down by a heavy debt load, another factor which is not foreign to U.S. carriers. Add that to a recession that is cutting passenger demand and Alitalia may not be the last big carrier to bite the dust.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Even with some modest recovery in airline stocks, it may be too early to celebrate. The worst may not be over for the industry.
The International Air Transport Association says that global losses for airlines could top $6.1 billion this year. The Wall Street Journal quotes ATA Chief Executive and Managing Director Giovanni Bisignani as saying, "We are bracing for more situations of airlines collapsing" amid higher fuel prices and lower revenue.
The slowdown is apparently moving to Asia, a major destination for many large US and EU airlines.
United (NASDAQ: UAUA) is a good example of a US airline that many thought would be on the rebound. New fear of rising oil prices has spoiled that a bit. After falling from a 52-week high of $51.60, shares crashed to $2.80. They have recently made a minor recovery to $12.40. But, in the last two days, UAUA shares have been off sharply.
Oil is still just below $120. Even at that level, down from $143, airlines face huge increases in fuel prices over last year. A modest disruption in oil supply could send prices back up again.
The market sees US airline stocks as having potential for big returns. But, with the price of oil making a potential bottom, the carriers are still in too much trouble to have a real recovery. Buying shares in the companies still offers more risk than reward. The industry may still have operators that have valuations heading toward zero.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
By the end of the year, global airlines will have cut 7% of their passenger capacity. According to The Guardian, "Experts predicted even deeper cuts in 2009 as part of a prolonged retrenchment of an industry that has expanded rapidly in recent years."
On the face of it, none of that is news. Airlines are losing billion of dollars due to oil prices, which are almost double what they were a year ago.
If worldwide seat capacity is eventually lowered 10% to 15% in an attempt by airlines to keep themselves out of bankruptcy, two things are almost certain to happen. Planes will become full instead of flying at 60% or 70% of capacity. Fares will almost certain rise as quickly as the price of oil did. These trends should help airlines rescue their earnings.
The trends may make is significantly more difficult for middle-class consumers to fly. This part of the population is already squeezed by falling home prices, high commodities costs, and the possibility that lay-offs in a number of industries will accelerate.
Some people may not make it home for the holidays.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Given the smorgasbord of economic demands and concerns -- domestic and foreign -- likely to face the new U.S. president, investors (and taxpayers) can justifiably ask 'Where's all the money going to come from to pay for these programs?'
Legitimate question, but one, for now, we'll let the political process sort out. (Current Gallup Daily Tracking Poll as of August 6, 2008, for the U.S. presidential election: Obama, 46%, McCain, 44%.)
Electing U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, or U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, will produce different programs and revenue priorities, due to the parties' different sources of power, but the argument forwarded here is that -- regardless of who becomes the new president -- the office holder should address transportation in a comprehensive way. Here are the major concern areas:
Mass transit: We're early into the $4 gas era, of course, but initial U.S. Department of Transportation data indicates Americans are driving less and using mass transit more. The trouble is, many mass transit systems (rail, commuter rail, subway, bus) need to be expanded/upgraded to handle the increased ridership. Bigger, better mass transit systems will save the United States hundreds of billions of dollars in oil costs, not to mention the environmental benefits.
These days in commercial aviation, airlines are finding ways to operate more efficiently amid the toughest sector conditions since the first oil shock in 1973-74.
And while there's no love lost between passengers and the major carriers' unconventional way of increasing total consumer flying costs by adding separate baggage fees, there's one a-la-carte fee the public may be willing to pay for: a fee for internet access on airplanes.
Analysts generally credit JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) with raising coach class amenity standards for flights in the United States when it introduced satellite TV and other services on its flights.
Delta's service will cost a $9.95 flat fee for flights lasting three hours or less and $12.95 for flights longer than three hours.
Public seen receptive to Wi-Fi fee
Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer says Internet fees would be "a lucrative revenue stream" for the airlines, and ironically one that will probably be popular with the public.
What's holding the airline sector back, in addition to high jet fuel prices, and keeping the likes of AMR's (NYSE: AMR) American, Delta (NYSE: DAL), UAL's (NYSE: UAUA) United, Southwest (NYSE: LUV), and Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) from realizing their potential?
Many economists and analysts would agree that, along with other infrastructure and related investments, the nation's air traffic control system must be upgraded, if the United States seeks an air transportation system capable of maintaining a high level of safety -- and better service -- in the 21st century's more-crowded skies.
Further, that the United States has not already replaced an essentially generation-old air traffic control technology with a modern system is a serious demerit, and one that has -- through delays, cancellations, and other problems -- taken a toll on the flying public and the major carriers.
These are tough economic times for the nation, most would agree, and one hard-hit sector has been the airline sector, specifically the major carriers.
Surging fuel costs, the increased precautions and reviews required for the post-September 11 era, and intensifying competition for international routes has led to large losses among many major carriers - - a condition that has forced them to raise fares and implement other cost-cutting changes.
Most have also instituted a baggage fee for a passenger's second bag, with some carriers charging for all bags. Still, for the most part travelers have taken the baggage fees in stride. Although viewed as a nuisance by many travelers, the reality is a second bag, in particular, is optional weight that increases flying costs per mile. And with aviation fuel zooming past latte-price levels, that's no significant expense.
Still, US Airways Inc. may have gone one too far with the fee system. Effective today, US Airways will start charging for water on flights by coach passengers, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday (subscription required). Bottled water will be $2. Passengers flying first class are exempt from the extra fee.
Not too long ago Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) used fuel hedging to lock in a $2.19 average per gallon fuel price with its providers. Betting that prices were going to rise, they took a gamble and agreed to pay a set price for a large amount of fuel for their operating costs.
This isn't the first time an airline has done this. But if the cost of fuel had gone down, Southwest would have been sitting on an obligation to pay for fuel at a higher than market price. Fortunately for Southwest, the bet cashed in, and so did Southwest. The Airline company was able to buy fuel at a rate cheap enough to keep its costs lower than rival companies. Southwest reported this week that it increased revenue by 11%, earning $321 million, or 44 cents a share.
But Southwest's fuel hedging earning the company $511 million. When that sweet deal ends, Southwest will be facing fuel costs almost double what they've been paying over this last year. As a nod to that Southwest is slowing growth.
Despite the worries about the upcoming adjustments, Southwest has continued its canny ability to stay nimble and profitable. This is the company's 69th straight profitable quarter.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) shares fell after the second-largest commercial plane maker reported disappointing second quarter earnings.
Net income dropped 19% to $852 million, or $1.16 a share, from $1.05 billion, or $1.35 a share, a year earlier, the Chicago-based company said in a statement. Revenue was flat at $17 billion. The results fell short of the $1.22 profit estimate and the $17.3 billion revenue estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Boeing reaffirmed its 2008 earnings per share guidance of between $5.70 and $5.85 as well as its 2009 earnings per share guidance of between $6.80 and $7.00.
"While we faced some challenges this quarter that affected our results, we remain confident in our outlook for the remainder of this year and 2009," said Chairman, President and CEO Jim McNerney in the earnings release. "Strong global demand for our products and services, a record backlog, and a sustained focus on productivity improvement and execution will continue to drive growth and profitability for this company."
Corporate earnings aren't that bad and are surprising analysts. Oil prices are falling just as quickly as they rose. If you are a contrarian investor, you must have a big grin on your face.
Common wisdom had it that markets were going to keep dropping, that the price of crude would hit $200 a barrel, and that bank after bank would go bankrupt. But what's happened? The opposite. Bank earnings aren't as bad a feared, crude has fallen to under $130 and suddenly investors are a bit more optimistic.
Even when we get bad news, like earnings from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) and others, the market is able to hold up. Industries that just a week ago were being left for dead suddenly came roaring back to life. For investors who like to dabble in out of favor stocks, this market is a dream come true. Battered sectors such as financials, airlines, and even autos have surged over the last week. Who would have dreamed that airline stocks would actually stage a rally? What's interesting is that even with their recent move these sectors are all still trading significantly off their highs, meaning that potentially we have much more room to run.
You've been enjoying yourself too flying US Airways flights, haven't you? No more frivolity. The US Airways experience will make the Chinatown bus look lush. US Airways Group (NASDAQ: LCC) announced these latest passenger torture methods: no movies, no curbside check-in at 34 airports -- and that's on top of recent plans to charge $2 for cokes or coffee. You'll pay extra to use some of your frequent flier rewards, an additional $15 for checked bags and $25 to book on the phone. And if you want a window or aisle seat in the front of coach -- 16% of coach -- it'll cost you $5 to $30 more per segment.
The stock is down about 5% today on these grim announcements and word that the airline is cutting 2,500 jobs (and perhaps on oil prices). It had already planned on cutting capacity, though it had positive news yesterday, with good scores for being on time. US Airways says the current new fees will bring in $250 to $300 to $400 million. I don't think price-conscious passengers are going to remain oblivious to the idea that an airline ticket is not the real price anymore. It'll be like renting a car -- you know that it's really going to cost you twice as much as the rate.
US Airways says it is cutting movie service because the 500-pound machines cost them $10 million in fuel and other costs. It'll keep the movies on flights to Hawaii and overseas. The real problem with the big airplane screens is that nobody is renting the headphones anymore. I don't remember the last time I watched a movie -- or even one of those schlocky sitcoms the airlines seem to love -- on a big airplane screen. We all want our own entertainment -- and bring it in the form of MP3 or DVD players. In an effort to appeal to the broadest audience, the industry has bored everyone. Reuters says that a cut in inflight movies -- if it goes further -- could hurt the entertainment industry, which makes roughly $240 million a year from airlines.