This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.
Through my career I've generally stayed apolitical with regard to investment and trading decisions, but there have been times when some higher percentage trades have presented themselves due to political circumstances. Examples include: the tech push in Clinton's second term, the defense sector after Bush's 2000 victory, as well as the oil patch. Based on that, here are some overriding thoughts, in no particular order.
The market has moved to the phase where many if not most participants want and expect a pullback. Since the market confounds the greatest number of players most of the time, is a big pullback a lower probability event now? Moreover, does the selling panic of much of October turn into a buying panic in the coming weeks and months? I'm letting the charts lead me here but aware that this bullish case could possibly trump terrible economic conditions.
I still think the alt energy patch (solar, wind, battery tech, clean coal) will produce some of the best winners, but a lot of easy money has been made in just days. Quality and fundamentals will likely count much more now than over the past few months. Also, extended runs may become vulnerable quickly if policy decisions do not show quick tangible follow-through. Companies with the best balance sheets and funding sources will benefit the most and have the least downside on sharp technical pullbacks.
You could have tossed a coin today and come up with the same predictions for if the market was going to close up or down. The 1.9% GDP report was lighter than the 2.2% estimates, but despite feeling like a recession, it isn't formally a recession. Equities headed south as did oil prices by more than $2.00 per barrel. Investors chose to focus on the bad data today and take profits. The bears came roaring back by the close.
Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA 11373.38 (-212.91) S&P500 1266.96 (-17.30) NASDAQ 2325.55 (-4.17) 10YR T-NOTE 3.979% (-0.069%) KEY ANALYST DOWNGRADES Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) was today's big loser in tech, media, telecom. The company beat estimates last night but guidance was a few percentage points light and the investment community still demands growth here. Shares were down by 26% to a new 52-week low at $23.10 in the final minutes.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, Ansys and AstraZeneca were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) to Buy from Hold after the company announced further write-downs and plans to boost capital.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Ansys (NASDAQ: ANSS) to Buy from Hold as they like the Ansoft (NASDAQ: ANST) acquisition and feel yesterday's sell-off creates an attractive entry point.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) was raised to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan following the positive Crestor study results.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Piper raised Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM) to Buy from Neutral.
Goldman upgraded Hansen Natural (NASDAQ: HANS) to Buy from Neutral.
Vertex Pharma (NASDAQ: VRTX) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia and to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) is one of the most widely traded and widely shorted stocks of any listed on a U.S. exchange. Average daily volume in the shares is over 41 million, and shares sold short as of mid-December were over 167 million. That is tops of all companies listed on the Nasdaq.
Level 3 would appear to be in a good business. It has 50,000 miles of IP backbone to transport voice, data, and video. It provides services to the country's largest cable and telecom companies.
Level 3 has taken a beating in 2007 falling form $6.80 to just above $3. Wall Street has to wonder how it gets back toward $7.
For starters, the company has to stop making an acquisition a month. The company's Level 3's latest 10-Q lists seven deals. It is not unfair for Wall Street to be concerned about the pace of these purchases, especially since Level 3 does not make money. In the September quarter, the company had an operating loss of $53 million on revenue of $1.061 billion. Level 3 also made $138 million in interest payments on its $6.8 billion in long-term debt.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Research in Motion, Virgin Mobile, VMWare, and McAfee were today's noteworthy initiations.
Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) was initiated with an Overweight by Thomas Weisel, which thinks the company has one of the strongest growth profiles among large-cap tech stocks.
Virgin Mobile (NYSE:VM) was initated with an Overweight by Thomas Weisel, which cited the company's strong global brand and low cost base.
Pacific Crest initiated VMWare (NYSE:VMW) with a Sector Perform based on the company's thin float and competitive risks.
McAfee (NYSE:MFE) was reinstated with a Buy by Deutsche Bank, which believes the company is one of the best positioned security vendors due to its comprehensive security platform.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Thomas Weisel initiated Palm (NASDAQ:PALM) with a Market Weight rating.
According to the Wall Street Journal's (subscription required) "Heard on the Street" column, content firms such as Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM) and Limelight Networks (NASDAQ: LLNW) are getting hammered, and there appears to be no letup in sight because while online traffic is up 60% a year over the last few years, those firm's shares are expensive and, says S&P's Scott Kessler, "There's plenty more room for [Akamai and Limelight] to fall."
TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO) is looking at a new revenue source -- being paid to give out market research to advertisers, reported the Wall Street Journal. The company plans to announce today that it will add demographic data, including age, income, marital status and ethnicity, about its viewers.
The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Ford (NYSE: F) is likely to have to pay any buyer of its Jaguar and Land Rover units because of a $2B pension deficit, according to people close to the situation.
OTHER PAPERS:
The New York Times reported that Con Edison (NYSE: ED) was fined $18M for service disruptions in 2006, including the nine-day blackout in western Queens, NY.
The Associated Press reported that Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) is considering listing on the Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets, according to the company's CEO.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: GPC Biotech, Akamai, Qwest, Shutterfly and LDK Solar were today's noteworthy downgrades:
GPC Biotech (NASDAQ: GPCB) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman, to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank and to Underweight from Overweight at Lehman after the company's phase III trial of satraplatin to treat prostate cancer did not meet its primary endpoint.
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM) to Hold from Buy on valuation following the recent rally as they believe concerns around slowing growth, margins and capital efficiency will limit upside.
Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q) was downgraded to Sector Performer from Outperformer at CIBC and to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan following the company's disappointing Q3 results.
Jefferies downgraded shares of Shutterfly (NASDAQ: SFLY) following the better-than-expected Q3 results due to valuation.
Piper downgraded shares of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) to Market Perform from Outperform, as they expect higher blended poly cost for the company due to tightening scrap poly supply and increased competition.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Maxwell Technologies (NASDAQ: MXWL) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities.
UBS downgraded Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL) to Sell from Neutral.
Merrill downgraded CommScope (NYSE: CTV) to Neutral from Buy.
Under Armour (NYSE: UA) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James.
RBC Capital downgraded Beckman Coulter (NYSE: BEC) to Sector Perform from Outperform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola, Paccar, Pacific Sunwear, Talbots and RightNow Tech were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, and is positive on the company's free cash flow generation.
Wachovia raised Paccar Inc. (NASDAQ: PCAR) estimates to Market Perform from Underperform based on better-than-expected European performance.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Buy from Hold as they believe the demo division divestiture and improving product execution in core PacSun stores could drive accelerating EPS growth.
Citigroup also upgraded shares of Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) to Hold from Sell on valuation but remains concerned about the company's long-term outlook.
Roth Capital upgraded RightNow Technologies (NASDAQ: RNOW) to Buy from Hold, as they are encouraged by RNOW's Q3 results and raised guidance and believes the worst is behind the company.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) to its Conviction Buy List.
Thomas Weisel upgraded Akamai (NADAQ: AKAM) to Overweight from Market Weight.
Lehman upgraded Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM), offers services for accelerating content and business processes online, is recently down $1.83 to $32.58. AKAM announced EPS of $0.34. AKAM call option volume of 27,510 contracts compares to put volume of 21,945 contracts. AKAM November option implied volatility of 74 is above its 26-week average of 49 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: VMware (VMW), Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Landstar System (LSTR) and Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) were the noteworthy initiations:
Robert W. Baird initiated coverage on VMware (NYSE: VMW) with a Neutral rating citing valuation.
Citigroup started Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) with a Hold rating, and cited the increasing competitive environment, slowing square footage growth and the weak housing market.
Citigroup started Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) with a Sell rating and said the company has an inventory glut that could lead to markdown risk, there is raw material price inflation, and the weak housing market remains a material risk.
Wachovia is cautious on Landstar System's (NASDAQ: LSTR) near-term growth rates and difficult end markets, starting shares with a Market Perform rating.
Deutsche is positive on the potential of Acadia Pharmaceutical's (NASDAQ: ACAD) ACP-103 in schizophrenia, starting shares with a Buy rating...
Wall Street is a funny place. The concoction of fear, greed, a lot of money, and the potential to be humiliated at any time from a random event causes smart people to do silly things. While I often read analyst reports and tend to believe they can offer value for certain situations, every once in a while I come across a pretty bizarre upgrade or downgrade.
As Kevin Shult reported on BloggingStocks earlier, Hambrecht downgraded Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM) from a buy to a hold. Normally I wouldn't really think much of such a subtle downgrade, but it seems like this downgrade goes against any logic.
If you look at the chart to the right, shares of Akamai have been killed during the last month. Off more than 40% from their highs, it would only seem logical that shares have become more attractive for new money than they were at a price 60% higher than the current quote.
But according to Hambrecht, this isn't the case. As I said before, this seems to go against any logic, especially if someone looks at a stock as a share in a business.
So why do I think they downgraded the stock? In my opinion, they probably wanted the poor performer off their buy list because it's currently humiliating them due to its poor performance. Once the stock trades back up 20-30%, they will re-add the stock to their buy list with the hopes of continued momentum.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: CheckFree (CKFR), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Wal-Mart (WMT), Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) and Avery Dennison (AVY) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Suntrust downgraded CheckFree (NASDAQ: CKFR) to Neutral from Buy based on the Fiserv (FISV) acquisition.
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) was removed from Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) was cut to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
Jefferies, RBC Capital, Piper Jaffray, Friedman Billings and Credit Suisse downgraded Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) to Underperform based on liquidity concerns.
Matrix cut Avery Dennison (NYSE: AVY) to Sell from Hold, and said Avery is being affected by the growing price competition in North America and Europe for self-adhesive labels and tabs...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Merrill downgraded Westwood One (NYSE: WON) to Sell from Neutral.
Morgan Keegan downgraded Haverty Furniture (NYSE: HVT) to Market Perform from Outperform.
Hambrecht cut Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM) to Hold from Buy.
Raymond James downgraded Domtar (NYSE: UFS) to Outperform from Strong Buy.
Douglas McIntyre made an insightful post on Saturday regarding Limelight Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: LLNW) and the internet video business. While I agree with my colleague on several of his points, I think it's too early write off Limelight.
Like any recently-launched IPO, Limelight's trading history has been anything but calm and easy-going. Simply due to the nature of the process, sentiment for IPOs seems to rapidly shift from euphorically positive to exceedingly negative. At the outset, investors and traders are extremely hyped on a company's products, management, and future. When the new issue finally hits the market, it tends to move up very quickly, especially if it's in a hot sector and riding an interesting secular trend. For example, look at the lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) IPO. Although the stock was priced at $18 per share, it came public above $30 per share and has since traded even higher. This is an incredible company which I will feature in about a week, but for now all you need to understand is that Wall Street is tremendously optimistic about the company's 'lifestyle' branding power and store growth potential.
Similarly, investors were very excited about Limelight when it first came public. After watching Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) fly on powerful momentum in the internet video space, the chance to buy a younger, smaller, faster growing internet video company excited investors beyond belief. When the stock came public, it finished its first day of trading $24 per share, good for a premium of more than 50% over the issue price.
But the good times don't always go on for new issues. Any news that can lead to skepticism for these preciously-priced story stocks can be simply devastating for the newly-issued stock. As Doug noted in his post, the sector is not doing as well as people had first expected -- price wars have plagued the company. As a result, bad news seemed to plague this quarter -- guidance was cut, pricing power is diminishing, etc.
A fair amount has already been written about the fact that since the recent IPO, content delivery network Limelight (NASDAQ: LLNW) has dropped sharply in price. In about three months, the stock has gone from $24.33 to $7.91.
But, how could something like this happen? In some ways it is, to used an abused phrase, a perfect storm of events.
The market has assumed that content delivery networks are part of the wave of the future. The largest one, Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM) had been a victim of the internet bubble. In December 1999, the shares were at $345 on the assumption that broadband would open a huge need for storage and moving content around the web. When the market collapsed, Akamai's shares were as low at $0.70.
But, because Akamai did hold on until the YouTube wave of online video streaming hit, its shares went from $11 in early 2005 to $50 last month.
Limelight, and one of its largest investors, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) decided to cash in on the excitement around Akamai, and took the smaller company public. Certainly the IPO would be popular because of the tremendous excitement around audio and video streaming as companies including the TV networks and studios put their content online.