"Home Prices Are About to Bottom" was the headline for the Barron's cover story the week of July 14, 2008. The story explained that the housing market should level off in many areas of the country by the end of the year.

I have made some equally unfortunate prognostications in my tenure at BloggingStocks, so my purpose is not to poke fun at Barron's but to point out that here we are, over two years later, and it is still debatable whether the housing market has bottomed out.

Continue reading Chasing Value: "Home Prices Are About to Bottom"

Chasing Value: "Home Prices Are About to Bottom" originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Nov 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Four-Day Rally, Time a Fifth (ACE, AIG, NANO, RIMM, SCSC, CPTS)

Closing Bell: Four-Day Rally, Time a Fifth (ACE, AIG, NANO, RIMM, SCSC, CPTS) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Jul 2010 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Greenspan Says Recovery Is Pausing, Sees Wealth Effect as Pivotal Growth Engine

Greenspan Says Recovery Is Pausing, Sees Wealth Effect as Pivotal Growth Engine originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Jul 2010 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Profit Taking Meets Colliding Metrics (SQNM, MON, PALM, NEM, AAPL)

Closing Bell: Profit Taking Meets Colliding Metrics (SQNM, MON, PALM, NEM, AAPL) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Apr 2010 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Don't be confused by the rhetoric you read and see in the media. We are definitely in a deflationary spiral. Who says so? And what data are you looking at?

Let's read a few quotes from leading traders and analysts:

• Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz said: "Deflation is definitely a threat right now."
• Charles Evans, Federal Reserve bank president says: "Disinflationary winds are blowing with gale force effect."

Continue reading Is deflation the real threat to our economy?

Is deflation the real threat to our economy? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Now that Iraq is an independent country, the oil ministry has started putting its oil fields up for bid to foreign investors, as reported in The Wall Street Journal (subscription required).

Bidding started this week and is not going well according to oil executives. The reason is that Iraq is cutting its payout to the bone. Only one consortium, led by BP (NYSE: BP) and including China National Petroleum Company, ended up staying in the bidding and making a deal. All other oil executives walked away from the bidding.

Continue reading The Iraq War was fought for oil -- now we have none of it

The Iraq War was fought for oil -- now we have none of it originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 05 Jul 2009 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

	Bank of America plans big pay hike for investment bankers
	South Park explains the economic meltdown
	Greenspan still won't accept blame for the global financial meltdown
	Media Biz: Layoffs at NY Times, Washington Post are not a surprise

DailyFinance today: NY Times WaPo layoffs no surprise, Greenspan won't accept blame for meltdown, South Park on the economic meltdown, and BofA plans big pay hike for bankers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Mar 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This post is part of a feature in which he wonder whatever happened to some notorious financial felons. See all 17.

I thought we'd have heard more about Charles Keating over the last few weeks of the 2008 presidential election, but much to my surprise the Obama campaign refrained from mentioning him. Keating was once the chairman of the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association, the infamous bank at the center of the S&L scandal of the 1980s; that scandal featured none other than John McCain, one of the "Keating Five" group of disgraced senators and more recently the Republican Party's nominee for president. But McCain's connection to Keating didn't seem to play a role in the 2008 election, and McCain lost the race for reasons other than being connected to one of the great financial crooks in recent memory.

To be fair, Keating was not a big fan of John McCain. He reportedly called him a "wimp" behind his back, accusing him of lacking the courage to fight the regulators who sought to reign in Keating's bank. McCain, along with John Glenn, were cleared by the Senate Ethics Committee of impropriety in their relationship with Keating, though they were publicly criticized for exercising "poor judgment." McCain later said that trying to help Keating was "the worst mistake of my life," though he didn't seem too upset about riding around the Caribbean on Keating's private jet.

Continue reading Financial Felons: Charles Keating

Financial Felons: Charles Keating originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 22 Nov 2008 18:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Message to Fed: Leave rates alone!

Message to Fed: Leave rates alone! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Get ready for a frantic, freaky Friday in the stock market

Get ready for a frantic, freaky Friday in the stock market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 24 Oct 2008 09:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Greenspan: I was wrong about banks' ability to police each other

Greenspan: I was wrong about banks' ability to police each other originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 23 Oct 2008 15:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Informing the public or fanning the flames?

Informing the public or fanning the flames? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan loves talking to the press, perhaps more than he liked being the Federal Reserve chief. He recently did a long essay for the FT, and made similar comments about the financial system and housing to The Wall Street Journal. In his chat with the Journal, the old man said "Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009."

Greenspan's comments may help sell books, but there is little evidence that he is right.

Foreclosures are accelerating now, and with mortgage resets, it appears that prime mortgages are joining sub-prime mortgages as a source of defaults. Banks, which have taken hundreds of billions of dollars from the Fed, are not using that money to make new loans; they are using it to improve their own reserves against more mortgage-backed securities losses. Lending money for home loans comes with the risk that the value of those homes will keep dropping. Because of this more people find the price they can get for their houses is less than the balance of their mortgages.

In most recessions, unemployment trails the economic slowdown. Meaning that if this recession looks like the one in the early 1980s, unemployment could hit 8% or 9% of the work-force by the end of the year.

Under all of these circumstances, it would be almost impossible for the drop in home prices to be arrested within the next nine months.

Talking to the press may help Greenspan sell books whether what he says makes sense or not.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Continue reading Greenspan: A housing bottom in 2009

Greenspan: A housing bottom in 2009 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 14 Aug 2008 08:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan has become like the fictional character "Zelig." Every time the business community turns around, there he is. The opinions of the former Fed chairman have taken on the characteristics of a broken record.

Greenspan wrote an essay for the FT in which he said, "The insolvency crisis will come to an end only as home prices in the US begin to stabilise and clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities." That statement has been obvious for several months. It adds no insight to the debate of how the credit crisis might end and repeats the same premise the he gave on CNBC a few days ago.

In his written comments, Greenspan also said there would be more bank failures.

The old man is now risking his legacy as an economist and long-time Fed chief by becoming a media star whose only attraction is that he is famous. What he has to say about the economy adds little or nothing to the debate.

To save what he has of his reputation, he should spend more time at home and less time making hackneyed pronouncements.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247 Wall St.com.

The overexposure of Alan Greenspan originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Aug 2008 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It was about 9 years ago that then-Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned investors of "irrational exuberance." Then at issue was the run up of hi-tech stocks. The question is if we are experiencing a similar "irrational exuberance" with regard to the surge in crude oil prices.

I know the arguments that there is too much demand for the available supply, that oil is a finite resource and the world is running out of crude, and that very few new sources of crude have come online in decades. My question is, didn't the market know this 6 months ago? All of the sudden oil traders woke up one morning and realized that we had all these problems?

What I don't understand is that you can't have it both ways. You can't claim that the world has entered a sustained slow growth era, and yet continue to claim that strong demand is what is causing the surging price. If we do still see very strong demand than maybe the global economy isn't as bad as most think.

I am no technical analyst, but the way crude has been trading sure has the makings of a bubble ready to pop. It's one thing to slowly and steadily increase in price, like we have seen for the last 5-6 years. It's quite another to see it move straight up in a vertical line, like we have seen of late.

Investors beware. This sure seems like another example of "irrational exuberance."

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 6/29/08.

Crude oil: "Irrational exuberance?" originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Greenspan says financial market turmoil may extend into 2009

Greenspan says financial market turmoil may extend into 2009 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Jun 2008 13:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Media World: The most overexposed people in business media

Media World: The most overexposed people in business media originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jun 2008 15:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan gives an interview about every two weeks, and headlines appear saying what he thinks the odds are of a recession in the US. His most recent opinion, as he makes his book tours and speaking engagements, is that America is facing a downturn, but it will not be as bad as it could have been.

According to the FT, The former chairman of the Federal Reserve said: "I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession." He believes that housing holds the key to how bad things will get.

Greenspan joins Warren Buffett and George Soros as the famous financiers who enjoying visiting regularly with the press about the economy. None of them need the exposure to make money, so being in the paper must just make them feel important.

At least Greenspan's view of how things are going is not as dark as those of his peers.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Greenspan: More 'talking head' opinion on recession originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 May 2008 04:06:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan now says that the U.S. could face a mild recession. Mild? He may be blinded by all the millions of dollars he is earning on his new book. Reuters quotes him as saying, "When home prices stabilize that would mark the end of the credit crisis." Greenspan seems to think housing prices could stabilize before 2009.

He has obviously not bought or sold a home recently. Data from the real estate industry show that prices are still dropping in most cities and states. The housing downturn may be prolonged by the fact that each foreclosure tends to drive down the value of homes near the house being auctioned by the bank. No wonder, since these properties often go for cents on a dollar.

Many industry experts expect that as more subprime ARMs reset this summer default rates will actually go higher. Although the Administration and Congress have talked about a comprehensive national plan to help homeowners, the only legislation is too narrow to stanch most problems for people who cannot make house payments.

Perhaps the largest issue of all is that most homeowners cannot get refinancing or new mortgages. Banks are taking in cheap money from the Fed, but are using it to improve balance sheets instead of passing it on to consumers in the form of lower interest rates.

Greenspan may be rich, but he is also crazy.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

More Greenspan hogwash on recession originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 May 2008 09:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Greenspan says U.S. is in 'pale recession,' possibly lasting all of 2008

Greenspan says U.S. is in 'pale recession,' possibly lasting all of 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 May 2008 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.