Continue reading Closing Bell: Profit Taking Meets Colliding Metrics (SQNM, MON, PALM, NEM, AAPL)

Closing Bell: Profit Taking Meets Colliding Metrics (SQNM, MON, PALM, NEM, AAPL) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Apr 2010 16:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

	Bank of America plans big pay hike for investment bankers
	South Park explains the economic meltdown
	Greenspan still won't accept blame for the global financial meltdown
	Media Biz: Layoffs at NY Times, Washington Post are not a surprise

DailyFinance today: NY Times WaPo layoffs no surprise, Greenspan won't accept blame for meltdown, South Park on the economic meltdown, and BofA plans big pay hike for bankers originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Mar 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Message to Fed: Leave rates alone!

Message to Fed: Leave rates alone! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Get ready for a frantic, freaky Friday in the stock market

Get ready for a frantic, freaky Friday in the stock market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 24 Oct 2008 09:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Informing the public or fanning the flames?

Informing the public or fanning the flames? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan loves talking to the press, perhaps more than he liked being the Federal Reserve chief. He recently did a long essay for the FT, and made similar comments about the financial system and housing to The Wall Street Journal. In his chat with the Journal, the old man said "Home prices in the U.S. are likely to start to stabilize or touch bottom sometime in the first half of 2009."

Greenspan's comments may help sell books, but there is little evidence that he is right.

Foreclosures are accelerating now, and with mortgage resets, it appears that prime mortgages are joining sub-prime mortgages as a source of defaults. Banks, which have taken hundreds of billions of dollars from the Fed, are not using that money to make new loans; they are using it to improve their own reserves against more mortgage-backed securities losses. Lending money for home loans comes with the risk that the value of those homes will keep dropping. Because of this more people find the price they can get for their houses is less than the balance of their mortgages.

In most recessions, unemployment trails the economic slowdown. Meaning that if this recession looks like the one in the early 1980s, unemployment could hit 8% or 9% of the work-force by the end of the year.

Under all of these circumstances, it would be almost impossible for the drop in home prices to be arrested within the next nine months.

Talking to the press may help Greenspan sell books whether what he says makes sense or not.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Continue reading Greenspan: A housing bottom in 2009

Greenspan: A housing bottom in 2009 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 14 Aug 2008 08:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan has become like the fictional character "Zelig." Every time the business community turns around, there he is. The opinions of the former Fed chairman have taken on the characteristics of a broken record.

Greenspan wrote an essay for the FT in which he said, "The insolvency crisis will come to an end only as home prices in the US begin to stabilise and clarify the level of equity in homes, the ultimate collateral support for much of the financial world's mortgage-backed securities." That statement has been obvious for several months. It adds no insight to the debate of how the credit crisis might end and repeats the same premise the he gave on CNBC a few days ago.

In his written comments, Greenspan also said there would be more bank failures.

The old man is now risking his legacy as an economist and long-time Fed chief by becoming a media star whose only attraction is that he is famous. What he has to say about the economy adds little or nothing to the debate.

To save what he has of his reputation, he should spend more time at home and less time making hackneyed pronouncements.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247 Wall St.com.

The overexposure of Alan Greenspan originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Aug 2008 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It was about 9 years ago that then-Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan warned investors of "irrational exuberance." Then at issue was the run up of hi-tech stocks. The question is if we are experiencing a similar "irrational exuberance" with regard to the surge in crude oil prices.

I know the arguments that there is too much demand for the available supply, that oil is a finite resource and the world is running out of crude, and that very few new sources of crude have come online in decades. My question is, didn't the market know this 6 months ago? All of the sudden oil traders woke up one morning and realized that we had all these problems?

What I don't understand is that you can't have it both ways. You can't claim that the world has entered a sustained slow growth era, and yet continue to claim that strong demand is what is causing the surging price. If we do still see very strong demand than maybe the global economy isn't as bad as most think.

I am no technical analyst, but the way crude has been trading sure has the makings of a bubble ready to pop. It's one thing to slowly and steadily increase in price, like we have seen for the last 5-6 years. It's quite another to see it move straight up in a vertical line, like we have seen of late.

Investors beware. This sure seems like another example of "irrational exuberance."

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 6/29/08.

Crude oil: "Irrational exuberance?" originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Media World: The most overexposed people in business media

Media World: The most overexposed people in business media originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jun 2008 15:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan gives an interview about every two weeks, and headlines appear saying what he thinks the odds are of a recession in the US. His most recent opinion, as he makes his book tours and speaking engagements, is that America is facing a downturn, but it will not be as bad as it could have been.

According to the FT, The former chairman of the Federal Reserve said: "I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession." He believes that housing holds the key to how bad things will get.

Greenspan joins Warren Buffett and George Soros as the famous financiers who enjoying visiting regularly with the press about the economy. None of them need the exposure to make money, so being in the paper must just make them feel important.

At least Greenspan's view of how things are going is not as dark as those of his peers.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Greenspan: More 'talking head' opinion on recession originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 27 May 2008 04:06:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan now says that the U.S. could face a mild recession. Mild? He may be blinded by all the millions of dollars he is earning on his new book. Reuters quotes him as saying, "When home prices stabilize that would mark the end of the credit crisis." Greenspan seems to think housing prices could stabilize before 2009.

He has obviously not bought or sold a home recently. Data from the real estate industry show that prices are still dropping in most cities and states. The housing downturn may be prolonged by the fact that each foreclosure tends to drive down the value of homes near the house being auctioned by the bank. No wonder, since these properties often go for cents on a dollar.

Many industry experts expect that as more subprime ARMs reset this summer default rates will actually go higher. Although the Administration and Congress have talked about a comprehensive national plan to help homeowners, the only legislation is too narrow to stanch most problems for people who cannot make house payments.

Perhaps the largest issue of all is that most homeowners cannot get refinancing or new mortgages. Banks are taking in cheap money from the Fed, but are using it to improve balance sheets instead of passing it on to consumers in the form of lower interest rates.

Greenspan may be rich, but he is also crazy.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

More Greenspan hogwash on recession originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 May 2008 09:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan is like a child on a long ride who keeps asking "are we there yet?". According to the former Fed chief, the US is finally in an "awfully pale recession" writes Reuters.

For some time, Greenspan said the odds of a recession where less than 50/50 He finally made it to the point where he was willing to say the chances for the economy dodging a slowdown were less likely. Now he calls the recession one which is mild and may last the year.

Greenspan has been, for some odd reason, behind the curve in terms of his thinking about how bad off the US economy is. Fellow pundit Warren Buffett called a recession some time ago. Most economists have said the GDP faces negative growth.

Greenspan's views may have something to do with keeping his name in the press and his speaking deals coming. By being just outside the major wisdom on the current economic situation he can be viewed as an alternative to the conventional wisdom. Being a little bit wrong can be good for Greenspan's book sales and business. Taking the same view as everyone else gets him lost in the shuffle.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.

Greenspan: US in 'pale' recession originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 May 2008 03:59:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last year I wrote a very positive Chasing Value article suggesting that USG Corp (NYSE: USG) looked like a value proposition when it was trading around $52 a share. We bought it and to say we were way too early would be very very kind because it dropped with the market in the summer and has only recovered slightly.

Even worse, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke are finally talking about a recession and USG is still laying off more workers, attempting to balance labor and product demand in a weak housing market and soft economy.

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) is still the largest shareholder, owning over 17% of the outstanding shares. Most of what I liked last year holds true but the depth of the economic downturn shows little signs of improvement. Housing and most related construction service industries are just trying to survive. They have all cut back production.

There is little consensus when the economy might start to show significant signs of improvement, but there are few people who think it will be soon, and I have spoken with many in the business community who think it will be 18 months at least. However, timing the market is always difficult so I believe that the best you can do is try and buy solid companies on the cheap. The difficulties that USG is weathering now will turn into strengths in the future as it streamlines the enterprise, reduces debt, and plans for the future.

Continue reading Chasing Value: I was early to USG, will you be too late?

Chasing Value: I was early to USG, will you be too late? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Apr 2008 14:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Recently, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan announced that the country is currently in a recession and that "the U.S. economy will not stabilize until the housing markets recover." He compared this to the Savings and Loan crisis of the late 1980s and mentioned that another organization similar to the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) may be necessary to resolve the situation.

I have repeatedly highlighted the parallels between the late 1980s and our current crisis. Part of the solution may clearly involve an organization similar to the RTC. This has generated debate over the role of government in resolving the crisis and who should ultimately bear the cost. Nevertheless, based upon comparing this to the S&L crisis of the late 1980s, there is decent evidence that this crisis will not be resolved until the housing crisis abates.

We may want to examine the differing ways that the Japanese Banking Crisis and the Swedish Banking Insolvency of the 1990s were resolved for guidelines. Under the Japanese scenario, the banks were given a lifeline and hesitated to write down the bad loans. This resulted in one of the longest economic slumps and bear markets in recent history. Only now is Japan starting to emerge from this downturn, almost 20 years after it began.

Continue reading The housing crisis bailout: No taxation without representation!

The housing crisis bailout: No taxation without representation! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 09 Apr 2008 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Wall Street Journal is trying to gin up some pity for Alan Greenspan. Apparently his feelings are hurt because people are blaming him for the current economic mess. They criticize him for keeping interest rates at 1% for too long, praising adjustable rate mortgages, and maintaining lax regulatory oversight. But the Journal missed the two key flaws in Greenspan's record -- his love of securitization and his critical support of Bush's $1.3 trillion worth of tax cuts.

Meanwhile Greenspan is raking in enormous bucks. The Journal reports: "His memoir has sold about a million copies. He collects six-figure fees to answer questions for audiences, typically assemblies of financial professionals. He has signed consulting contracts with three firms, including Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche Bank AG; the world's biggest bond-fund manager, Pacific Investment Management Co.; and Paulson & Co., a hedge fund that made billions betting against housing."

In a 2002 speech referring to credit derivatives, he said financial instruments such as credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit-linked notes have also helped make the economy shock-resistant. "Such instruments appear to have effectively spread losses from defaults by Enron, Global Crossing, Railtrack, WorldCom and Swissair in recent months from financial institutions with large short-term leverage to insurance firms, pension funds, or others with diffuse long-term liabilities or no liabilities at all,"

Continue reading Greenspan wallowing in self-pity

Greenspan wallowing in self-pity originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 08 Apr 2008 14:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) want to export more of their vehicles around the globe, and are getting a lift from new labor contracts and the weak dollar, which they believe will translate to bigger profits, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has been criticized for how he handled the economy before retiring two years ago, and is under attack for policies that many say started the current financial crisis.

• According to a person with knowledge of the matter, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reported that The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) is likely to announce a new delay of at least six more month for the 787 Dreamliner this week.

• According to 'numerous sources,' Housing Wire reported that Washington Mutual Incorporated (NYSE: WM) may have decided to exit wholesale mortgage origination.

Newspaper wrap-up: Washington Mutual to exit wholesale lending? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 08 Apr 2008 08:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Clinton proposes $30 billion to stop foreclosures originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 25 Mar 2008 20:17:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alan Greenspan may appear to have a gift for the obvious. He says that a recovery in the housing market is necessary for a recovery of global credit markets. Since subprime and other mortgage instruments have pulled down earnings at a number of huge banks and brokerages, that would not seem to be any news.

"The sooner we can get home prices in the United States stabilized, the sooner we will resolve all questions," Greenspan said, according to Reuters.

Greenspan may be wrong. If banks can wash mortgage problems through their balance sheets by aggressive write-downs, they may be able to build a firewall against rising default rates. The federal government may also step in through the FHA to help refinance or "guarantee" a number of home loans.

The comments also neglect to acknowledge that most large companies have record sums of cash on their balance sheets, by one measure over $600 billion at the firms in the S&P Industrial Index. Earnings at many companies may drop but their core finances probably will not be threatened.

Housing may be important, but it is only one leg on the stool. The government's biggest job now is to make sure that all the other legs are healthy.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Greenspan says housing recovery is key to U.S. economy originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Mar 2008 09:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"If it weren't for the fact that business was in such extraordinary good shape before this problem hit, I don't think we'd be questioning at this stage whether we're in a recession," Greenspan said during a question-and-answer session with Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the Massachusetts-based consultancy that sponsored the dinner.

"We'd be talking about how long and how deep," he said. "And we're not there yet."

Alan Greenspan says we are on the 'edge' of a recession originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 15 Feb 2008 11:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The stock market has taken another big hit today reacting to numerous economic headlines like Merrill Lynch Posts Steep 4Q Loss and Novartis 4Q Net Profit Falls 45 Percent, and worse yet a regional Federal Reserve report showed a sharp decline in manufacturing activity and as investors grew concerned that downgrades of key bond insurers could trigger further trouble with souring debt.

But this was the day that Ben Bernanke the Fed Chair reported to congress and tried to pacify the markets with his open mind about shoring up the economy through economic stimulous.

Perhaps it is my imagination, but it seems to me that when Alan Greenspan spoke, for better or worse, he was able to exert a calming influence on Wall Street if that was his intention. When Bernanke attempts the same trick somehow it feels like something is missing.

Continue reading Greenspan beats Bernanke for that calming influence

Greenspan beats Bernanke for that calming influence originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jan 2008 18:14:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.