Quarterly earnings could be up year-over-year by the fourth quarter. A low threshold for improvement, as a result of last year's Q3 financial meltdown, could set the stage for the appearance of a recovery, but the ride from here to there will be a difficult one.

Data from Bloomberg and S&P suggests that profits for stocks comprising the S&P 500 Index may be down 21% next quarter. It's still a double-digit blow, but a better result than Q2's estimated 34% -- and far ahead of Q1's 60% year-over-year fall in profits. The driver of a recovery, however concealed by low expectations, is likely to be a combination of unemployment and consumer spending. Last month, we saw unemployment reach a 26-year high, putting obvious constraints on purchasing.

The second half of the calendar year has begun, and earnings return to the spotlight this week. As usual, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is among the first of the S&P 500 to report quarterly results. For the second quarter in which Alcoa agreed to sell its wire harness and electrical distribution business and its fastening systems business expanded into Morocco, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the New York-based aluminum producer to report swinging to a net loss of $0.34 per share from a profit of $0.66 per share in the year-ago period. Second quarter revenue is expected to have fallen 48.3% to $3.9 billion. The full-year forecast is currently for a loss of $1.04 per share and revenue of $16.7 billion (-38.0%). Alcoa has missed expectations in the past three quarters, by as much as 17 cents per share. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 10.0%, which is better than the sector average. Alcoa slashed its dividend earlier this year, and the First Call consensus recommendation remains to hold AA. However, TheStreet.com recommends it as an against-the-grain pick. At $9.86, shares are down 12.4% since the beginning of the year, and recently have been bumping up against the 200-day moving average.

Analyst Upgrades

• Merriman upgraded Regal Entertainment (NYSE: RGC) to Buy from Neutral as the analyst is less concerned about Q2 box office performance following the Transformers 2 opening weekend.
• Baird upgraded Ball (NYSE: BLL) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $52 from $46 citing cost cutting initiatives, a volume trough in Q1, and expected earnings growth.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded JCPenney (NYSE: JCP) to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm cites valuation and gross margin opportunity for the upgrade. The firm has a $35 target on shares.
• KB Home (NYSE: KBH) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.
• Lloyds Banking (NYSE: LYG) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

Analyst Upgrades

• Oppenheimer upgraded Genoptix (NASDAQ: GXDX) to Outperform from Perform and raised its target to $44 from $33 based on analysis of oncology testing reimbursement that indicates average revenue per case is within industry norms.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Legg Mason (NYSE: LM) to Hold from Sell citing reports that an activist investor, Nelson Peltz, has increased its stake in the company. The firm said fundamentals remain weak but the news will likely push shares higher.
• Suntrust upgraded VCA Antech (NASDAQ: WOOF) to Buy from Neutral citing reduced headwinds and favorable risk/reward. The firm has a $30 target on shares.
• SLM Corp. (NYSE: SLM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.
• Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO) and FMC Technologies (NYSE: FMC) were upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) started off the new earnings season with disappointing results that helped to stifle the recent rally. Was that enough of a sign of what's to come? No, probably not. But the earnings reports start to fly in earnest this week, which should provide a more detailed picture of the state of things.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that some of the biggest names will prove to be holding their own. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is expected to post a profit of $4.91 per share, marginally higher than a year ago, and Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) expected $1.22 per share profit is slightly lower year over year. Even Mattel Inc.'s (NYSE: MAT) estimated loss of $0.13 per share is the same as in the year-ago period.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) easily topped Q4 earnings estimates but same-store sales fell.
• Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) forecast Q3 earnings that are well above analysts' estimates.
• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) said it narrowed its loss in Q4 despite restructuring costs.
• Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM) is expected to fall short of Q4 earnings expectations.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) reported strong Q2 results and and raised its outlook for Q3.

A new earnings reporting season kicks off this coming week with the quarterly report from Alcoa, the first Dow Jones industrial to report. But investors looking for early signs about the first quarter will be disappointed in what they see from the aluminum producer, assuming that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are neither too optimistic or too pessimistic about those results.

"President Obama's proposed rebuilding plans are great news for steel and other industrial metals makers," says resource sector specialist Larry Edelson, who recommends a pair of beneficiaries: U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) and Alcoa (NYSE: AA).

The editor of Real Wealth newsletter explains, "Obama has pledged to give the U.S. economy a massive shot in the arm with the biggest public works spending package this nation has seen in more than 50 years.

"Besides spending on road, bridge, school improvements and construction, the plan is likely to include upgrading our deteriorating electrical grid and greater investments in public transportation, among other infrastructure projects. The plan is also expected to create about 2.5 million jobs.

"While steel and other base metal prices have tanked sharply this year on slumping global demand, companies that produce the metals have staged some massive cutbacks in production and many have shuttered large chunks of their operations.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicked off the new season with a larger-than-expected loss due to the economic slump.
• Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions (NASDAQ: MDRX) reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings.
• Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) share price soared after its strong Q1 earnings and guidance.
• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) earnings prospects without CEO Steve Jobs led to an analyst's downgrade.
• Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) lowered its guidance as business slows at an unprcedented rate.
• Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) reported terrible Q4 results and receivbed additional TARP money.
• Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) lowered its 2008 earnings estimate due to soft soybean commodity markets.
• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) posted a much bigger-than-expected loss and said it would split in two.
• Coventry Health Care Inc. (NYSE: CVH) offered full-year guidance that was less than analysts expectations.
• CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) forecast Q4 earnings would come in below analysts' expectations.
• CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS) increased its quarterly dividend despite the recent lowered guidance.
• Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) reported a net loss for Q4 and the full year, dragging down the sector.
• Genentech Inc. (NASDAQ: DNA) revenue and earnings surged but were lower than analysts estimated.
• Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) Q4 results were in line with low expectations as the gross margin declined.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) reported a huge drop in Q4 earnings but it stayed in the black.
• Lexmark International Inc. (NYSE: LXK) slashed its Q4 outlook and announced job cuts.
• Pentair Inc. (NYSE: PNR) efforts to limit an earnings decline led to a buy recommendation.
• Precision Cast Corp. (NYSE: PCP) earnings prospects following the recent rally led to an analyst's downgrade.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) today reported worse-than-expected fourth quarter results, indicating to Wall Street that the earnings season will be as bad as many had feared -- if not worse.

The company reported a net loss of $1.19 billion or $1.49 per share, compared with net income of $632 million, or $0.75 per share, the Pittsburgh-based company said in a press release. Revenue fell 19% to $5.69 billion, down from $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter 2007 excluding divested businesses. This was the company's first quarterly net loss in six years.

Excluding one-time items such as restructuring, impairment and other charges, profit was $929 million, or $1.16 per share. Results were hurt by a 35% decline in aluminum prices in the quarter -- a 56% decline since July -- and declining demand, especially from the automotive, commercial transportation and building and construction sectors. Analysts expected a loss of 10 cents on revenue of $5.26 billion.

Alcoa has braced itself for the economic downturn by cutting workers, reducing production and selling some businesses.

"We are taking wide-ranging measures to address the economic downturn," said Klaus Kleinfeld, President and CEO of Alcoa. "We have streamlined our portfolio to focus on businesses where Alcoa is the recognized leader, curtailed production to adjust to weakened demand, reduced global headcount, and achieved significant savings in key raw materials."

Fasten your seat belts, investors, you are in for a bumpy ride.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2008 results today at 5 PM Eastern. Results will be presented by Klaus Kleinfeld, president and chief executive officer, and Chuck McLane, executive vice president and chief financial officer. To listen in, dial (from U.S.) 1-800-901-5226, passcode: ALCOA. For information on dialing in from overseas, listening to the replay, or watching the webcast, see Alcoa's Quarterly Earnings Presentations.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect that Alcoa will have swung to its first quarterly loss in years: $0.10 per share. That compares to a profit of $0.36 per share in the same period of the previous year. Revenues for the quarter are expected to have fallen 28.8% from a year ago to $5.3 billion. Alcoa missed earnings estimates in three of the past five quarters, by 25.4% in the third quarter.

For the full year, analysts are looking for earnings of $1.40 per share on revenue of $27.6 billion, down from $2.60 per share and $30.8 billion in the previous year.

The consensus recommendation of analysts shifted from buy to hold AA during the past quarter. Though the share price has been climbing in recent weeks, it is about 65.6% lower than it was a year ago.

See BloggingStocks' Alcoa coverage for more information concerning the Pittsburgh-based producer of aluminum and alumina.

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