Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q2 2008 Alcoa earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's conference, Mr. Greg Aschman, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.
Greg Aschman, Director of Investor Relations
Thanks, Kim. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for attending Alcoa's second quarter 2008 analyst conference. On today's conference Chuck McLane, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer will review the second quarter financial results. Klaus Kleinfeld, President and Chief Executive Officer, will highlight current market conditions, industry fundamentals and review Alcoa's strategic priorities. Bill Christopher, Executive Vice President and President of Alcoa's engineered products and solutions business will provide an overview of this business, including performance improvements and growth potential.
If you look at financial sites' headlines, they mostly say (nearly scream through the titles) that Alcoa beat the Street.
And it's true. Analysts estimated some set of earnings numbers for the aluminum giant, and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), reporting after the close, beat those numbers. Specifically, Alcoa reported a second-quarter profit of $546 million, or 66 cents a share, on revenue of $7.6 billion, beating what analysts polled by FactSet Research were looking for, a profit of 65 cents a share on sales of $7.37 billion.
But really, those earnings were down from $715 million, or 81 cents a share, a year earlier, and even if the recent quarter's charge of $39 million, or 5 cents a share, is taken into account (bringing earnings per share to 71 cents), profit is still lower. However -- and perhaps that's the silver lining Wall Street is looking at -- sales rose 11% when the divested business revenue is excluded from last year's revenue.
As the second half of the year begins, the bear market has nervous investors looking for any sign of a shift in the direction of the market. When the new earnings seasons kicks off Tuesday, Alcoa Inc.'s (NYSE: AA) second-quarter results may offer the first glimpse of what to expect going forward.
Pittsburgh-based Alcoa has missed earnings estimates in just two out of the past five quarters. When the leading aluminum producer reported first-quarter results back in March, its net income of 44 cents per share fell short of the consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial by four cents, and were down from 79 cents per share in the same quarter of 2007. For this current quarter, analysts expect earnings of 68 cents per share on $7.4 billion in revenue.
Alcoa's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 21.6%, which is less than the metals and mining industry average but better than the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation from analysts is to buy Alcoa, and has been for more than 90 days. The share price has been falling from a recent high of $44. 77 in mid May, and closed at $32.78 on Friday. Shares are down 10.3% year to date.
The new quarter brings with it a new earnings season. While the earnings crunch doesn't begin in earnest until the following week, Alcoa as usual helps kick things off this coming week.
One of the world's leading producers of aluminum, Pittsburgh-based Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is scheduled to report second-quarter results Tuesday after market close. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect the company to report net income of 68 cents per share on revenue of $7.4 billion. That's down 16% from EPS a year ago. Alcoa has missed estimates in two of the past five quarters -- by four cents in the previous quarter. Analysts have recommend buying AA for more than 90 days. Shares have fallen 10.3% year to date, but the long-term EPS growth forecast is 21.6%.
Beverage distributor Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. (NYSE: PBG) is scheduled to report its second-quarter results Tuesday morning. Analysts are looking for earnings of 75 cents per share, up 6.6% from the same period of the previous year, on revenue of $3.6 billion. PBG has offered up positive surprises recently, by a penny in the previous quarter. However, analysts recommend holding PBG, and have for more than 90 days. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 9.1%, which is better than the industry average. Shares have fallen 27.6% year to date.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) is recently down 27c to $34.50. AA call option volume of 8,138 contracts compares to put volume of 735 contracts. AA May option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) sure is a downer. I was starting to feel a little better about the market when it decided to say some bad things about the upcoming earnings season. Thanks a lot, Goldman! According to this Bloomberg article, Goldman believes that earnings for companies will be, overall, very bad, and that the broad market will be brought down by them. Already, reports by General Electric (NYSE: GE) and Alcoa (NYSE: AA) have rocked Wall Street -- and not in a good way, let me tell you. Goldman's David Kostin is, in fact, disagreeing with other analysts who believe that the quarter won't be so terrible; he also thinks the S&P 500 will be lower by the end of the year by perhaps 6%.
So, what does this tells us as investors? First of all, let me say that I think the guy has a point -- when you see GE miss like it did on 4/11, you've got to take notice and be on your guard. In other words, if you're planning on doing some cute buy-a-stock-just-before-it's-about-to-report trading, be extra careful! Now is not the time to take ridiculous chances with investment capital. If you are going to do it, make sure you do it with extra-safe stocks -- then again, if GE wasn't a worthwhile trade in the category I just described, what the heck qualifies for "extra-safe" this quarter? Probably not much. All of us have to realize that the recession is, most likely, real, and that stocks are going to be difficult equities to own.
The day every investor waits for/dreads has finally arrived. Earnings season has just been kicked off as the first of the Dow Industrials, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), has just reported first-quarter results. This quarter, the results have been anticipated/feared more than usual. With many economists saying the U.S. has likely entered a recession in the first quarter, corporate profits may be next to be hit.
Well, Alcoa alleviated some fears and confirmed others. The aluminum giant posted a first-quarter profit of $303 million, or 37 cents a share, down from $632 million, or 75 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. Alcoa's income from continuing operations was $361 million, or 44 cents a share, 4 cents short of analyst estimates. Alcoa, however, beat on the top line, with revenue of $7.4 billion, better than the $7.2 billion analysts had expected.
The usual suspects were all present. For example, when accounting for the currency impact, Alcoa said profit came to 52 cents a share. In addition, industrial demand was lower while energy costs surged, causing margins to squeeze and profits to be halved. Still, the company pointed out that aluminum prices are at historic highs and demand in Asia is still strong.
The new earnings seasons kicks off tomorrow after the market closes when Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is scheduled to report first-quarter results.
Pittsburgh-based Alcoa has missed earnings estimates in only one quarter out of the past five. When the leading aluminum producer reported fourth-quarter results back in December, earnings of 36 cents per share beat the consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial by three cents, but were down from 74 cents per share in the same quarter of 2006. For this current quarter, analysts expect earnings of 50 cents per share.
Alcoa's full-year 2007 earnings per share of $2.60 missed estimates of $2.83, and were down from $2.96 for 2006. However, Alcoa also reported record revenue of $30.7 billion, as well as record income from continuing operations.
Alcoa's forecast earnings per share growth for the year is 9.85%, which is better than the industry average and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation from analysts is to buy Alcoa, and has been for at least 90 days. The share price has been climbing from the 52-week low of $26.69 in January, and closed at $39.00 on Friday.
PDUFA date for Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY)'s supplemental Biologics License Application for Orencia for the treatment of Juvenile Rheumatoid Arthritis.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 5pm.
Tuesday, April 8
Chattem Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTT) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 9:00am.
FOMC to release minutes of the March 18th meeting at 2:00pm.
Alcoa's Q2 2008 earnings transcript
As the second half of the year begins, the bear market has nervous investors looking for any sign of a shift in the direction of the market. When the new earnings seasons kicks off Tuesday, 
The new quarter brings with it a new earnings season. While the earnings crunch doesn't begin in earnest until the following week, Alcoa as usual helps kick things off this coming week.
Alcoa
Alcoa
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Alcoa's Q2 2008 earnings transcript
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