Continue reading Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season With Improved Sales

Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season With Improved Sales originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 11 Apr 2011 16:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As I outlined in January, industrial bellwether Alcoa (AA) is starting to signal better quarters ahead for the U.S. economy. Alcoa's sales will likely increase 10% to 13% in 2011, after a 14% surge in 2010, the latter albeit against an easy comparison.

Further, U.S. auto sales are likely to rise 10% to 13% this year, and the housing sector could squeeze out a modest uptrend in new home sales, if a better second-half performance materializes, as expected. This is all good news for aluminum sales and AA. Another positive: The price of aluminum should rise in 2011 on adequate global demand and falling inventories.

Continue reading As Alcoa Goes, So Goes the U.S. Recovery

As Alcoa Goes, So Goes the U.S. Recovery originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 23 Mar 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alcoa (AA) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. The company has a significant presence in all segments of the aluminum industry and operates in more than 31 countries worldwide. The company competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP) and Chalco (ACH).

The company recently released its Q4 2010 earnings, and we have updated our price estimate to $17.68 based on a reduction in total debt, an increase in revenues from better product pricing and better cash management leading to cost savings.

Primary Metals the Biggest Driver of Value

The primary metals division produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, and it is sold to external customers, aluminum traders and on commodity markets. While our analysis shows that it was Alcoa's most valuable division in terms of contributor to shareholder's income, we have further increased our estimates for the overall value of the division going forward.

Aluminum prices have increased over the last two years since their sudden decline from peak prices in mid-2008. The 13% increase in global aluminum prices in 2010 has been directly responsible for the observed increase in the division's revenue.

We capture the impact of the aluminum prices on Alcoa's revenues in our forecast for the yearly average price of primary metals.

With demand for aluminum predicted to increase from 10-15% in developing countries like China, South Korea, Thailand and India, Alcoa's estimate of a 12% growth rate for 2011 is well justified. We believe that the demand growth will increase Alcoa's revenue per ton of aluminum sold to as high as $3,400 in coming years from its current value of about $2,500.

See the complete $17.68 Trefis Price estimate for Alcoa's stock.

Like our charts? Embed them in your own posts using the Trefis Wordpress Plugin.

Rising Aluminium Prices to Drive Alcoa's Value originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Feb 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading U.S. Stock Futures Higher as Investors Await Economic Data, Earnings

U.S. Stock Futures Higher as Investors Await Economic Data, Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 31 Jan 2011 08:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Readers of this space known that the investment strategy preferred here favors large-cap companies with demonstrated business in established markets, and with the aforementioned in mind, Alcoa Inc. (AA) is worth a review.

Industrial bellwether Alcoa is starting to signal "better quarters ahead" for the U.S. economy. Alcoa beat the fourth quarter Thomson Reuters First Call earnings estimate by 2 cents, earning 21 cents, and if the company's sales increase trend continues, look for a 10% to 13% revenue gain in 2011, after a 12% to 14% surge in 2010.

Continue reading Alcoa Signals Better Quarters Ahead for the U.S. Economy?

Alcoa Signals Better Quarters Ahead for the U.S. Economy? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 23 Jan 2011 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Fluor (FLR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Macy's (M) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JA Solar (JASO) and HeartWare (HTWR) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Ashford Hospitality (AHT) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• RenaissanceRe (RNR) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• DCT Industrial (DCT) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) and Silver Standard (SSRI) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Weatherford (WFT), Hercules (HERO), GulfMark Offshore (GLF), Tidewater (TDW) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to buy from hold, and Diamond Offshore (DO) to hold from underperform, at Jefferies.
• Ritchie Bros. (RBA) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) to buy from hold at Citigroup.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AA, AMD, AMR, AZN, CIT, GSK, HPQ, M, NVDA, PCX, SPWRA ...

Analyst Calls: AA, AMD, AMR, AZN, CIT, GSK, HPQ, M, NVDA, PCX, SPWRA ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Jan 2011 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading U.S. Stock Futures Down, All Eyes on Alcoa Earnings

U.S. Stock Futures Down, All Eyes on Alcoa Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Jan 2011 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alcoa (AA), Intel (INTC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will kick off a new earnings season this week when they report their results for the fourth quarter of 2010. Here's a quick look at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect to see, followed by a glance at what's coming up on the economic calendar.

Alcoa

During its fourth quarter, Alcoa saw increased demand in emerging markets, sold surplus properties, and shared revenue targets with investors. Analysts forecast that earnings for the period will come to 19 cents per share, up from just a penny per share in the same quarter of last year. The New York-based aluminum producer also is expected to post revenue of $5.7 billion for the three months that ended in December, which is 4.5% more than a year earlier.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Alcoa, Intel, JPMorgan Kick Off New Earnings Season

Week in Preview: Alcoa, Intel, JPMorgan Kick Off New Earnings Season originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 09 Jan 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• TCF Financial (TCB) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Exelon (EXC) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Nvidia (NVDA) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Estee Lauder (EL) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Webster Financial (WBS) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to outperform from neutral at Wedbush.
• Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from underperform and Pioneer Natural (PXD) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Autodesk (ADSK) to buy from neutral at Goldman.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AA, AAPL, ATHR, BKS, CL, CLX, EL, HBAN, NCR, NVDA, XRTX ...

Analyst Calls: AA, AAPL, ATHR, BKS, CL, CLX, EL, HBAN, NCR, NVDA, XRTX ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 05 Jan 2011 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Boeing (BA) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Alcoa (AA) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• BP (BP) to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.
• Office Depot (ODP) and Staples (SPLS) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• ON Semiconductor (ONNN) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Kennametal (KMT) and Polyone (POL) to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• Airgas (ARG) to outperform from market perform at William Blair.
• EchoStar (SATS) to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AA, BA, BP, BSX, COH, GM, INTC, NSM, STJ, TIF, TSN, UA ...

Analyst Calls: AA, BA, BP, BSX, COH, GM, INTC, NSM, STJ, TIF, TSN, UA ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 Jan 2011 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alcoa (AA - option chain) stock is trading lower with other aluminum stocks this morning on reports that premiums for aluminum shipments to Japan will likely fall during the first quarter of 2011. A report stated that analysts believe aluminum premiums are already in a downtrend and could dip as much as 10%. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on AA.

This morning, AA opened at $13.10. So far today the stock has hit a high of $13.14 and a low of $12.96. As of 12:30, AA is trading at $12.99, down $0.30 (-2.3%). The chart for AA looks bullish and S&P gives AA a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Continue reading Alcoa Hurt by Aluminum Oversupply Concerns

Alcoa Hurt by Aluminum Oversupply Concerns originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Nov 2010 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Intel (INTC) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight and Autodesk (ADSK) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Citigroup upgraded Blackrock (BLK) to buy from hold.
• 99c Only Stores (NDN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• PetSmart (PETM) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Ruth's Hospitality (RUTH) and Morton's Restaurant (MRT) to overweight from neutral.
• BioMed Realty (BMR) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Piedmont (PDM) to market perform from underperform.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AA, AOL, BLK, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, JBL, JBLU, YHOO ...

Analyst Calls: AA, AOL, BLK, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, JBL, JBLU, YHOO ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 11 Nov 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The earnings season kicked off last week with better-than-expected results from Alcoa (AA) and Yum! Brands (YUM), while Marriott (MAR) and Pepsico (PEP) met consensus EPS estimates. This week, bellwether companies Intel (INTC), General Electric (GE), Google (GOOG) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) are scheduled to report their third-quarter results, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are looking for earnings growth from all of them.

Santa Clara, Calif.-based Intel announced the acquisition of McAfee and joint ventures with General Electric and Nokia (NOK) during its third quarter. Analysts forecast earnings for that period to come to 50 cents per share, which is up 34.0% from the same period of last year. The number one semiconductor maker's revenue for the three months ended in September is expected to total $11.0 billion, or 17.1% more than a year earlier. Looking ahead to the full year, the forecast thus far is for earnings of $1.94 per share (+44.8%) and $43.3 billion in revenue (+23.4%). The per-share earnings topped analysts' expectations in the past four quarters, by as much as a dime per share.

Continue reading Week in Preview: Earnings Expectations for Intel, GE, Google and JPMorgan

Week in Preview: Earnings Expectations for Intel, GE, Google and JPMorgan originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 10 Oct 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I last discussed aluminum company Alcoa (AA) back in July. At that time, its price was roughly around the $11 mark. Thursday, the stock closed the regular session at $12.20. During the extended-hours trading that followed, the stock rose 2.8% to $12.54 in reaction to the release of the third-quarter report. The 52-week low for the shares is $9.81, so they're comfortably above that level. It's time for long-term investors and short-term participants to decide how the stock looks now that the numbers are out.

Let's first go to the one-year chart. Such a graphic doesn't make things easy, does it? The overall pullback makes the stock appear weak, but I nevertheless see an equity that wants to clear some more resistance levels if only the rest of the market will help it out.

Continue reading Alcoa Earnings Defeat Estimates in Third Quarter

Alcoa Earnings Defeat Estimates in Third Quarter originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 Oct 2010 09:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alcoa (AA), Marriott (MAR) and Yum! Brands (YUM) kick off the new earnings season this week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for moderate year-over-year earnings and revenue growth in the third quarter from each of these dividend payers.

Note that Marriott and Yum! Brands have exceeded consensus estimates in recent quarters and have First Call consensus buy recommendations as well. They are also trading near their 52-week highs, while Alcoa shares are closer to the 52-week low despite a 22% rise in the past three months.

Continue reading Week in Preview: New Earnings Season, Employment Data and More

Week in Preview: New Earnings Season, Employment Data and More originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 03 Oct 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Options Update: Apple Volatility Low, Shares Approach Record High originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Sep 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Calls were the options of choice on Alcoa (AA) Thursday, according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE). During the course of the session, speculators on the ISE bought to open 1,255 calls on AA, compared to just 56 puts. The equity's single-day ISE call/put volume ratio of 22.41 underscores a distinct preference toward bullish bets over bearish.

Thursday's most popular strike was AA's October 12 call, where 1,669 contracts crossed the tape -- about 93% at the ask price, confirming they were most likely purchased. Open interest at this strike climbed overnight by 1,391 contracts, and now stands at 57,578 open positions.

Continue reading Calls Gaining Popularity as Alcoa Climbs the Charts

Calls Gaining Popularity as Alcoa Climbs the Charts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 06 Aug 2010 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Why You Should Buy Alcoa After Earnings

Why You Should Buy Alcoa After Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Jul 2010 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When Alcoa (AA) issued its first-quarter earnings report back in April, I wasn't impressed. I felt the shares weren't a buy, and I wanted a pullback. Well, we got one. In fact, the stock closed Monday's regular session at $10.87, not far from the 52-week low of $9.04. This was right before a new quarterly report was posted.

So should an investor consider Alcoa a potential buy? I definitely find the shares more attractive now than I did a few months ago. Further, the stock rose 3.5% in Monday's after-hours session.

Continue reading Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season with Stronger-Than-Expected Growth

Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season with Stronger-Than-Expected Growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Jul 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alcoa Inc. (AA), a leading producer of alumina and aluminum, is scheduled to discuss its second-quarter 2010 financial results Monday, July 12, in a conference call beginning at 5:00 PM (ET) hosted by CEO Klaus Kleinfeld and CFO Chuck McLane. You can catch a live webcast at Alcoa's website.

During the three months that ended in June, Alcoa appointed a new CEO, announced an acquisition and declared a quarterly dividend. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect this New York-based company to report earnings of $0.12 per share, compared to year-ago loss of $0.26 per share. Its revenue is expected to have risen 18.9% from a year ago to $5 billion.

Continue reading Alcoa Earnings Preview: Shares Rally into Q2 Report

Alcoa Earnings Preview: Shares Rally into Q2 Report originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 11 Jul 2010 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.