It seems so astonishing that it can't be true, but there are experts who believe that 25% of American retailers could fail over the course of the next year or two. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "AlixPartners LLP, a Michigan-based turnaround consulting firm, estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers it tracks are at significant risk of filing for bankruptcy or facing financial distress in 2009 or 2010."
If an extremely large number of retailers do close, the job loss could be incredible. Troubled retailer Pier 1 (NYSE: PIR), which trades at $0.33, has more than 6,100 employees. Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), which also trades at $0.33, has over 60,000. If several medium-sized to large store chains move into bankruptcy, hundreds of thousands of jobs will be at stake. This does not include more modest-sized operators.
The retail industry is critical to the American economy. If it falls apart rapidly, it helps put the recession into a deeper downward spiral. Retail employees lose jobs and then are no longer consumers. With fewer consumers, more retailers and other business fail. Tax income for municipal, state, and the federal governments is also undermined, putting pressure on government employment.
The jobless rate my be close to 7% now. The retail part of the economy could move that number up quite a bit all by itself.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
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