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Best & Worst: Ford still America's family company, but the family is struggling

This post is written as part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst 2006. If this post convinces you that Ford can make a comeback, cast your vote.

Recently I wrote a blog post about some of the nice things Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is doing. It was just an overview and the article was cursory at best. A member of our excellent editing staff suggested that I might have readers who want a bit more explanation of just what has happened with Ford's stock market value over the last year. I think that for an even better perspective, I'll need to take you back ... way, way back....

Ford Motor Company's stock value entered this decade at $29.30 (the actual per share value was $53.51 but there's a split adjustment factored in). By the end of 2000 Ford stock had slipped to $23.44. One year later the shares had deflated to $15.95 and by the end of 2002 investors were viewing in amazement a stock value of just $9.58. In 2003 Ford took an upswing and shares ended that year at $16.18. But 2004 ended at $14.80, 2005 nearly halved that value to $7.90, and 2006 is shaping up to finish with Ford Motor Company shares close to today's ending price of $8.13. Two factors that must be considered when viewing this historical trend are: In 2000 Ford's daily share trading volume was in the range of 3,300,000, whereas yesterday's trading volume for Ford was over ten times that much at 30,530,400 shares. How do total share availability and volume traded affect the overall price? I'll honestly tell you, that information is just plain "over my head."

Continue reading Best & Worst: Ford still America's family company, but the family is struggling

Ford hopes its new debt becomes a solid investment

No. 2 U.S. automaker Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) said Monday it expects to borrow $18 billion and back its loans with collateral for the first time.

The venerable U.S. automaker said it needs the money to continue to implement its major restructuring. CEO Alan Mulally said Ford needs the capital to help pay for a buyout /workforce reduction for 40,000 Ford employees, as well as to pay for additional plant/operational modifications.

Like General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM), Ford is in the midst of a major transformation, the success of which will have much to say regarding the sustainability of each company. High gasoline prices, and a dearth of innovative cars have propelled consumers to buy foreign vehicles, particularly cars manufactured by Toyota and Honda. Moreover, as with GM, the changes at Ford do not simply amount to developing two or three "must-have cars," although that is daunting enough. Ford and GM also must substantially reduce assembly and employee benefits costs to bring them in-line with foreign competitors, including buying-out selected employees. And buy-outs require capital, hence Ford's Monday bond announcement.

The market's reaction to Ford's announcement? Moody's lowered Ford's unsecured debt rating to Caa1, seven steps below investment grade. Meanwhile, Ford's shares dropped 26 cents to $8.26 in afternoon trading Monday. GM declined 71 cents to $30.52.

Investment Analysis: Is Ford suitable for the typical investor? No. Ford remains a high-risk investment: Ford still must demonstrate that it can leap over several operational hurdles before Wall Street can declare its restructuring a success. Therefore, unless you can tolerate losing a substantial portion of the money you invest in Ford -- a 60%-70% stock price decline, for example -- avoid Ford for now. The investment analysis for GM is slightly more positive, but GM also is a moderate-risk investment, not suitable for conservative investors.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 10:11 AM

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