One of our readers commented recently that I had earned his respect because I always tracked and posted my bad picks not just the good picks. I have been told this often but it is not so uncommon in better publications. Barron's weekly and Fortune Magazine both do the same. It's only fair, and should be standard operating procedure. I have not seen James Cramer do it but then he makes thousands of recommendations so how can he track anything?

I also think that in a blog you have the opportunity to establish a dialogue with readers and might even learn something. I have learned plenty from readers and colleagues alike. So having exposed some of my failings in the past month I thought I would look back and and review some of my successful picks.

When I posted Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS eleven months ago in March, ACH was $22.98. It closed yesterday at $39.03 for a 70% gain. It had reached a 52-week high of $90.95 in between. We took some money off the table at $88 and are now playing with the 'house money'. This one has worked out great.

Continue reading Serious Money: great picks: Aluminum Co. of China & Anadarko

Serious Money: great picks: Aluminum Co. of China & Anadarko originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 Feb 2008 15:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter, he explains, "Aluminum Corp. of China, known as Chalco, is China's leading aluminum producer and the world's second largest supplier of alumina -- a key raw ingredient used to manufacture aluminum.

As a rule, he points out, he is reluctant to buy in "frenzied sectors or regions where speculation is still rampant." And indeed, he says, Chalco is "square in the middle" of both. He notes, "Not only is the firm based in China, but it is also heavily tied to volatile commodities prices."

Despite these reasons for caution, he remains bullish on the stock, explaining, "Even after this rally, though, the shares are still trading below where they were last March -- and at a reasonable 18% discount to our $33 fair value estimate."

Meanwhile, despite the run-up in aluminum prices over the past few years, he believes the long-term story remains compelling. The world's population, he observes, is rising every day, global trade is expanding, and the rapid industrialization of fast-growing nations like India and China is fueling heavy demand.

Meanwhile, he adds, the company maintains a monopolistic 90% share of the alumina market in China, where consumption is expected to continue racing ahead at a +12% clip over the few years.

He cautions that ACH is a volatile stock that is best suited for risk-tolerant investors. However, the advisor concludes, "All things considered -- including a hefty 4.6% dividend yield -- we think the risks are outweighed by the potential rewards."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Chalco: A China play on aluminum originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Apr 2007 16:43:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.