As I outlined in January, industrial bellwether Alcoa (AA) is starting to signal better quarters ahead for the U.S. economy. Alcoa's sales will likely increase 10% to 13% in 2011, after a 14% surge in 2010, the latter albeit against an easy comparison.

Further, U.S. auto sales are likely to rise 10% to 13% this year, and the housing sector could squeeze out a modest uptrend in new home sales, if a better second-half performance materializes, as expected. This is all good news for aluminum sales and AA. Another positive: The price of aluminum should rise in 2011 on adequate global demand and falling inventories.

Over the years there have been some strange goings on in the commodity markets. One episode that comes to mind is the attempt by the Hunt brothers of Texas to corner the silver market in the 1970s.

Now we have another strange occurrence. The Financial Times reported that one trader holds 80% to 90% of the copper in the London Metals Exchange (LME) warehouses, valued at about $3 billion. We do know that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is a big player in the copper market. Whether JPMorgan increased its holdings is not known.

I last discussed aluminum company Alcoa (AA) back in July. At that time, its price was roughly around the $11 mark. Thursday, the stock closed the regular session at $12.20. During the extended-hours trading that followed, the stock rose 2.8% to $12.54 in reaction to the release of the third-quarter report. The 52-week low for the shares is $9.81, so they're comfortably above that level. It's time for long-term investors and short-term participants to decide how the stock looks now that the numbers are out.

Let's first go to the one-year chart. Such a graphic doesn't make things easy, does it? The overall pullback makes the stock appear weak, but I nevertheless see an equity that wants to clear some more resistance levels if only the rest of the market will help it out.

Shares of aluminum entity Alcoa (AA) are not acting as a catalyst for the market today. If anything, they are probably bringing the mood of the traders in a downward direction. Pity, since the Dow hit 11,000 and all.

At the time of this writing, shares of the company were off by roughly 3%. Volume was high relative to the norm. The company's first-quarter earnings report is the cause of the selling interest. Of course, a sell-off can oftentimes be a nice opportunity for investors to get in on a stock; you always want to buy low and sell high, correct?

Industrial metals like copper, aluminum and iron ore are basic to economic development. China, with its explosive growth needs these metals.

Word of this has spread around the world, bringing speculators into the markets. China is the world's biggest consumer of aluminum and copper. Armed with that knowledge, speculators drove the price of copper up 48% in the second half of 2009.

Driving the selling pressure was the earnings report, of course. For the fourth quarter, sales decreased 4% compared to the year-ago period. On a reported basis, the company lost 27 cents per share from continuing operations. This was a big improvement over the previous loss of $1.16 per share. Unfortunately, according to Bloomberg, the adjusted profit of a penny per share missed projections by 5 cents.

The earnings season is going to kick off on Monday when aluminum manufacturer Alcoa (AA) reports its fourth quarter numbers following the market close.

Headed into Monday's report, analysts are expecting to see the company posting its second positive quarter in a row after posting losses for three consecutive quarters. Analysts are expecting earnings of 6 cents per share during the quarter.

From the U.S. to Europe, to Asia, cold weather is wreaking havoc on travel and agriculture. The recent cold snap is is driving the price of oil and agricultural commodities to new highs for the year.

Demand for crude oil is up, pushing prices to a 15-month high. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, oil traded at $81.77 per barrel. Natural gas demand has climbed sharply in China, with prices up as much as 40% in some areas.

Within the past year, the stock price of Alcoa (NYSE: AA), a mega aluminum producer, has gone from a high of $44.78 to a low of $4.97. Although, during the past few weeks, things have perked up. In fact, yesterday Alcoa's stock price surged 17% to $6.40.

The reason? Alcoa was able to drum up interest in its recent financing. In all, the company raised $1.3 billion in stock and convertible notes. Keep in mind that Alcoa expected to raise $1.1 billion.

In the aftermarket, the trading of the new securities was robust -- which certainly delighted traders.