Back in August, I discussed my amazement at Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The stock just didn't seem to be acting in a manner which reflected the fundamentals of the business it represents. Well, my bout of amazement continues, because shares of the retailer are up 9% as of this writing on the latest earnings report. One that didn't impress me.
For the third quarter, Abercrombie made, on a reported basis, 44 cents per diluted share compared to 72 cents per diluted share in the year-ago period. After adjustments, earnings came in at 30 cents per share. Okay, that profit drop is bad enough, but wait till I get to the really bad stuff. Which would be revenues. Total sales declined 15%, but same-store sales were even worse: they plunged off the proverbial cliff, falling 22%.
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.
This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.
I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
Could we see a bit of a drop from American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) today? The retailer announced that its October same-store sales fell 5%, when the Street expected an increase of 1.7%. This disparity certainly seems to suggest that we could see the stock fall in today's trading action. The equity may find a measure of support from its 10-week moving average, which has filled this role throughout the stock's calendar-year rally. There seems to be some long-term support from AEO's 10-, 20-, and 50-month moving averages; all of which are in the $15 -$17 region. If the stock is going to fall, this support could be crucial. A drop through this resistance could spell a stock slide.
American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), a fashion retailer that competes with Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), didn't do too well in Q2. Total sales went down 5%, and earnings per share on a GAAP basis fell a most awful 50% to 14 cents. According to Bloomberg, the adjusted earnings of 12 cents per share came up short of analyst expectations by three pennies.
Same-store sales hit the double-digit mark to the downside: they decreased 10%. Not a good number for this kind of business. Promotional markdowns helped to drive the gross margin down. The operating margin also took a hit.
Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), a retailer that competes with Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), and Gap (NYSE: GPS), posted what I thought was a superb second-quarter earnings summary on Thursday after the bell. The figures were very appealing, and I would've expected a better after-hours reaction by the stock to the news. Then again, the market can never be predicted. It will do whatever the heck it wants.
Net sales increased 20%. Not bad, am I right? Wait, check this out. Earnings per share came in at 57 cents, compared to the 31 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. According to Reuters, that was a penny ahead of expectations. But that penny beat on the bottom line isn't what impresses me the most. It's the strong per-share profit expansion that I find compelling.
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) is such a funny stock story. The company reports what I thought was a quarter full of dire results, and the market still sends shares higher. They closed almost 4% higher, in fact, on Friday. I don't get it.
For the second quarter, sales decreased 23%, and the overall same-store sales statistic, which is a really important metric for retailers, sank 30%. A net loss of 30 cents per share was booked, mostly on the back of the discontinuation of the Ruehl business. Excluding the effect of the closure, Abercrombie made 8 cents per share, and that, according to Reuters, beat by a mile the expected loss of 7 cents per share.
AEO opened this morning at $14.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $14.40 and a high of $14.95. As of 11:30, AEO is trading at $14.70 up 74 cents (5.3%). The chart for AEO looks neutral and S&P gives AEO a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
Last summer we lamented the price of gas. This year, however, there's at least one upside. Retail sales for June were up 0.6% - substantially better than the 0.4% anticipated – with the gas prices leading the charge. A slight tip in the brutalized auto manufacturer sector helped, as well. This was the largest retail sales increase in five months.
Gas stations benefited from the cost of fuel, adding a bit of pep to a beleaguered retail industry: sales were up 5% year over year, after doing the same in May. And, car dealers had their best month since January: the sales of cars and parts climbed 2.3%. Nonetheless, this corner of the retail world is still off 14.5% from last year. It may have helped last month, but we're still pretty far from a cure.
As of this writing, shares of J. Crew have doubled over the last six months. It certainly hasn't hurt the company to see that the Obama family wears its clothes.
AEO opened this morning at $13.89. So far today the stock has hit a low of $13.51 and a high of $15.24. As of 12:35, AEO is trading at $14.71 up 23 cents (1.6%). The chart for AEO looks neutral and S&P gives AEO a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), the retailer that runs stores such as Bath & Body Works, Pink, and the sexy Victoria's Secret, issued its Q1 numbers after the bell on Wednesday.
The bottom line didn't look bad. Not that it looked great, mind you. The company earned 1 cent per share. The fact that there was any profit at all was big news. According to analysts, a loss of 3 cents per share was more likely.
The revenue picture was not so pretty, however. Net sales dropped by 10%. And same-store sales decreased 7%. I guess buying lingerie isn't a top priority during a time when jobs are being cut and consumers look in terror upon their 401(k) balances.
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) was not hot at all in the first quarter. It's funny. You hear about the recession coming to an end this year, about things getting better, and then you check out some retail stats and you begin to wonder.
Anyway, Abercrombie, which shares space at the mall with names like J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), saw its top line decline by 24%. Same-store sales for the company's entire operations dropped 30%. Same-store sales at the Abercrombie & Fitch brand itself plunged 26%. Earnings per share took a dive of more than 50% to $0.31. It should be noted, however, that there is a pending non-cash charge that will be added to these results at a later time.
Back in August, I discussed my amazement at Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The stock just didn't seem to be acting in a manner which reflected the fundamentals of the business it represents. Well, my bout of amazement continues, because shares of the retailer are up 9% as of this writing on the latest earnings report. One that didn't impress me. 
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: 
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction. 
Could we see a bit of a drop from 
Aeropostale
Last summer we lamented the price of gas. This year, however, there's at least one upside. 
J. Crew Group
Nuclear power is on the comeback trail
Apple backs AT&T in continuing spat with Verizon
Closing Bell: The recession is still over, still... do you feel it?
