American Home Mortgage can't figure out who owns the mortgages -- so destroy 'em? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 11 Feb 2008 15:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Wilbur Ross loves distress. When industries are suffering near death - such was the case with steel and textile mills - Ross has figured out creative ways to capitalize on things and, yes, make a tidy fortune.

His latest target? It's the mortgage sector.

No doubt, it's not easy to be bullish on this. But Ross' philosophy is that - where there is bankruptcy, there is opportunity.

So according to a story on Bloomberg, Ross is willing to pay a cool $435 million for loan servicing division of American Home Mortgage Investment Corp.

The servicing business is usually a cash cow and as a result, should be a good foundation for consolidating the industry.

As with any savvy investor, Ross looks to the long term. That is, he knows that mortgages are necessary. So why not buy up a big piece of the market when prices are dirt cheap?

Seems smart to me.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Wilbur Ross -- 'The King of Bankruptcy' -- mortgages the future originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 21 Sep 2007 19:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Mortgage market getting uglier and uglier originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 03 Aug 2007 10:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The New York Times [registration required] reports that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE: AHM) is shutting its doors thanks to the fear of its lenders -- who provide the wholesale money they lend to home buyers -- that they won't get their money back. Doug McIntyre posted about this here. Several of AHM's peers -- IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) and Accredited Home Lenders Holding (NASDAQ: LEND) -- are also in rough shape.

Last October, I began looking for ways to profit from the collapse in the housing market. My best idea -- posted in December -- was to short shares of NovaStar Financial (NYSE: NFI) which dropped from $116 to $7.19. This post got the attention of a reporter from NPR's MarketPlace who dropped by my office this week to interview me about where the next opportunities for short profits might lie.

My answer is that I don't know. That's because the hedge funds, endowments, pension funds, and insurance companies that buy the mortgage backed securities (MBS) constructed from the loans that NovaStar and its peers originate are not disclosing the value of their MBS holdings. To identify short selling opportunities, I'd like to know this information because many MBS holders will be wiped out.

Continue reading Credit crunch hitting mortgages: where can you profit next?

Credit crunch hitting mortgages: where can you profit next? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 03 Aug 2007 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

American Home Mortgage (NYSE: AHM) fired almost all 7,000 of its employees late yesterday. According to CNN Money, the company will go into bankruptcy immediately.

AHM made $59 billion in loans last year, many of them with adjustable-rates. Many of the company's loans were to the middle part of the housing market and were no sub-prime mortgages.

Another lender, Accredited Home Lenders (NASDAQ: LEND), also showed signs of distress yesterday. After closing at $8.35 on Wednesday, shares fell as low as $3.98 Wednesday.

The mortgage lending fall-out is much likely to get much worse. While many of the problems with sub-prime mortgage problems have now been exposed, loans to more credit-worthy borrowers are likely to fall apart fairly fast.

A large number of adjustable-rate mortgages made in the last year will moved to higher, fixed rates over the next 24 months. Some consumers will not be able to make the larger payments. With home inventory rising and prices falling, they may also find it impossible to sell their homes, unless they want to take a large loss.

The mortgage troubles today may only be the beginning of a much uglier period.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.com.

American Home Mortgage (AHM) gives up the ghost originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 03 Aug 2007 08:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

There are times when Wall Street, to borrow a phrase, takes "two steps forward and one step back."

Then there are times when the Street simply stands, and waits for the events on the ground to clarify the financial landscape.

And that was the case Tuesday, as Monday's rally faded into Tuesday's 140-point Dow sell-off. And one reason was the subprime issue in general, which seems to offer a data point daily regarding the sector's health, and its impact on the housing sector, and the economy.

Tuesday's data point was American Home Mortgage (NYSE: AHM), which dropped more than 80% to about $1.00 per share from its recent $10.50 per share after the company indicated it is unable to borrow money under its banks lines and is looking at ways to raise money, including "the orderly liquidation of assets."

Continue reading AHM provides a data point, and Wall Street awaits more...

AHM provides a data point, and Wall Street awaits more... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Aug 2007 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) probably hoped that it mortgage-backed securities problems were behind it when its bailed out two of its own hedge funds. But no such luck. The company has halted withdrawals from another fund that The Wall Street Journal says has another $850 million in mortgage instrument holdings.

Bear Stearns says it can work its way out of the mess. The investment bank stated that it is not prudent to sell the fund's holdings in this environment.

But, what does that mean. Probably that if the portfolio was sold off there would not be nearly enough money to pay out investors, and Bear Stearns would be stuck with the check.

Over the last six months shares of BSC are down well over 25%, and the market is concerned about whether there is more news that the company has yet to disclose about it mortgage security investments. Along with UBS and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), It has loaned American Home Mortgage (NYSE:AHM) money. And that mortgage company is in the midst of a collapse that could cause a liquidation this week.

Bear Stearns could be in worse shape than Wall St. knows now. Its shares could go lower... and lower.

.

The hole at Bear Stearns gets deeper originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Aug 2007 07:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Rupert Murdoch's $5B, $60 a share offer for Dow Jones & Company (NYSE: DJ) appeared to be closer to a final deal as Dow Jones was negotiating with News Corporation (NYSE: NWS) to pay advisory fees for the Bancrofts, the majority stock holders, in exchange for some of the holdout members to back the deal, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" column reported that so far this year, five top BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) executives grossed more than $82.4M by selling 486.5K shares on the open market at per-share prices ranging from $147.30 to $179.93, according to Thomson Financial data.

• Mortgage woes continued to deepen yesterday, reported the New York Times, which noted that the New York Stock Exchange elected not to allow trading yesterday on the shares of American Home Mortgage Investment Corp (NYSE: AHM), after the company reported that it would suspend its dividend and faced "significant" margin calls from banks.
• The New York Times reported that AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) has made a deal with online music retailer EMusic that will allow people to buy songs from independent labels through their cell phones.
• The Los Angeles Times reported that Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) will introduce a new "standard" version of its Prius gas-electric hybrid for the 2008 with a base price of $20,950, 5.5% less than the lowest cost 2007 model.

Newspaper wrap-up 7-31-07: Dow Jones deal almost done? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 31 Jul 2007 09:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Relieved investors are running around Wall Street with a piece from Bloomberg that says the market is as cheap as it has been since 1991. The theory is based on the fact that the S&P 500 "valued at 15.4 times estimated profit, is the lowest it has been since January 1991."

The numbers are hogwash and investing based on such a broad metric will bring nothing but grief.

The market valuation after the Crash of 1929 may have looked attractive, but a number of pieces of the overall economy were not. Right now, US markets face a set of circumstances that are ugly, vicious, and not likely to go away.

Iran said over the weekend that it does not expect OPEC to increase oil output when it meets in September. Concerns about demand continue to eat at optimism about global financial stability. The Chinese need more oil and so does the US. It is a fiction that everyone will be driving hybrid cars and using solar energy in 2020.

Adding to the oil price problems are the unrest in two large oil-producing countries, Nigeria and Venezuela. Venezuela President Hugo Chavez appears to be a quart low on sanity and sense, and this has caused Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) to leave the country.

The other novenas being said near the lower tip of Manhattan are for the mortgage mess to pass. American Home Mortgage (NYSE: AHM) did not open today. It has suspended its dividend and payments to it preferred holders. Last week the head of Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) opined that this was the worst real estate market since the '30s.

The market may look cheap on paper, but that is the only place it is cheap.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

The stock market ain't cheap originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jul 2007 14:27:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

American Home Mortgage (NYSE: AHM) options indicate Panic as AHM sells off 24%. The company invests in mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans. AHM is recently down $2.72 to $10.89 on unconfirmed credit line chatter. AHM announced on 6/28/07 it will take substantial charges for credit-related expenses in the 2nd quarter and withdrew its 2007 earnings guidance. AHM call option volume of 10,996 contracts compares to put volume of 29,783 contracts. AHM July straddle is priced at $2.25. AHM August put option implied volatility is at 183, August put implied volatility is at 205; above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks. AHM puts are priced higher than calls on AHM being difficult to borrow. July options expire tomorrow; July 20th.

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update 7-19-07: American Home Mortgage options indicate panic as AHM sells off 24% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Jul 2007 16:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A number of leading financial newsletter advisors -- including Mark Skousen, Bryan Perry, Daniel Frishberg, and Neil George -- have recently taken positions in specialty finance and mortgage lending stocks, sectors that had suffered from the "meltdown" in the subprime mortgage market.

Mark Skousen, in his The Hedge Fund Trader, notes, "Mortgage lenders are making a comeback." The recent price recovery, he notes, has been broad ranged, covering most thrifts and mortgage trusts. He notes, "It appears that investors have concluded that the subprime lending scandal was limited."

iStar Financial (NYSE: SFI), he states, is his favorite commercial REIT. In fact, it was a recent announcement from iStar that acted as a catalyst for an improvement in the overall sector.

He explains, "California savings & loan Fremont General Corp. (NYSE: FMT) announced that it would sell its commercial real estate lending business to iStar Financial for about $1.9 billion. With Fremont expecting now to survive its subprime mortgage woes, many now consider the real estate industry recovery to be real."

Skousen also points to strong insider buying of shares in thrifts and mortgage banks.

Continue reading Mortgage gains: After the meltdown

Mortgage gains: After the meltdown originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 06 Jun 2007 13:02:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After a recent story, Chasing Value: Insider buying at IndyMac Bancorp, a reader, Alex, asked, "What's your take on American Home Mortgage Inv (NYSE: AHM). The fundamentals seems to be amazing like IMB's?"

It seems to me I had looked at this stock before, and since I neither wrote about it nor put it on my watch list, there must have been something about it that did not thrill me. After reviewing the matter I can see what it was. I was looking at it when it was at a high, and being a value investor passed on it. Glad I did because, as Alex mentioned, like IndyMac it came down hard from almost $40 to close Monday at $21.

Now it is a value play so I am interested. The short answer is, yes I like this pick. Is there risk, yes -- is it going out of business? I do not think so. From a recent story, JMP Starts AHM at 'Market Perform', which does not speak glowingly about AHM, one might conclude this stock is a loser. And if you bought it recently, this would be correct. But I think that stocks like this are worth a look as long as they keep their doors open for business.

Continue reading Someone asked about Amercian Home Mortgage

Someone asked about Amercian Home Mortgage originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 May 2007 08:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Wachovia upgraded shares of Gap Inc (NYSE: GPS) to Outperform from Market Perform citing increased visibility on the turnaround and execution given modest merchandising improvements at Old Navy and GapKids, potential cost-cutting by late Spring and Summer and potential improved products at Gap adult by the holiday season into Spring 2008.

• Susquehanna upgraded shares of World Wrestling Entertainment inc (NYSE: WWE) to Positive from Neutral.

• Bernstein upgraded AstraZeneca plc (NYSE: AZN) to Market Perform from Underperform citing valuation and more realistic expectations.

• Off The Record Research changed their view to Positive on Nike Inc (NYSE: NKE) shares given the company's lack of discounting, share gains at Foot Locker (FL) and momentum in Europe.

• Lehman Brothers upgraded LG Phillips LCD Co, Ltd (NYSE: LPL) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing a fundamentals turnaround in display and structural changes occurring now rather than in the second-half of 2007.

• Friedman Billings believes TD AmeriTrade Holding Corp (NASDAQ: AMTD) has compelling risk/reward and upgraded shares to Outperform from Market Perform given significant free cash flow and an attractive valuation that increases the likelihood that the company could become a takeover target.

• Goldman Sachs upgraded The Mosaic Co (NYSE: MOS) to Buy from Neutral on valuation.

• Matrix USA upgraded Avocent Corp (NASDAQ: AVCT) to Buy from Hold on valuation.

• AG Edwards upgraded American Home Mortgage nvestment Corp (NYSE: AHM) to Buy from Hold and believes the market has over-reacted, pulling shares down with it.

Analyst upgrades 4-11-07: AMTD, GPS, NKE and WWE were upgraded today originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Apr 2007 10:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Lehman Brothers downgraded Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) to Underweight from Equal-Weight based on valuation.
• American Home Mortgage Investment Corp (NYSE: AHM) was cut to Underperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette, to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings, to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Lehman Brothers, to Sell from Hold at Citigroup and to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
• Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) was downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets based on valuation.

• Murphy Oil Corp (NYSE: MUR) was cut to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Lehman.
• Credit Suisse downgraded Alaska Air Group, Inc (NYSE: ALK) to Neutral from Outperform.
• Gabelli downgraded shares of A. Schulman, Inc (NASDAQ: SHLM) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's weak second-quarter.
• Raymond James downgraded Avnet, Inc (NYSE: AVT) to Market Perform from Outperform.
• Blyth, Inc (NYSE: BTH) was cut to Sell from Hold on valuation.

Analyst downgrades 4-09-07: Hess Corp & American Home Mortgage downgraded today originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Apr 2007 10:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.