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Chasing Value: Insurance Stock Review -- Part 2

AIG logoDo you have any interest in insurance companies amidst the turmoil, disaster and current crises in Japan? A crises that followed so closely on the heals of the destruction of the New Zealand city of ChristChurch by a 6.3 magnitude earthquake. Perhaps you think this is even a poorer idea than catching that proverbial falling knife we are always hearing about when stock prices are collapsing.

Certainly there will be billions of dollars in claims. On the other hand, perhaps the burden will be spread around the globe to reinsurer's such that none is struck too hard and this is a buying opportunity. After all, when the dust settles, insurers will cry for mercy, and in particular, rate increases. It is also likely those that never saw the need for insurance have been awakened and demand will increase.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Insurance Stock Review -- Part 2

Chasing Value: Insured Profits or a Mountain of Risk?

Ten weeks into the year and never a dull moment. Pondering the remaining 42 weeks and beyond, where will value be found? We know that "my pal Warren" is on the prowl waist high in Berkshire Hathaway cash to invest, and he is on record as chomping on the bit to do so. Just this morning it was reported that Buffett had closed a $9 billion deal to buy Lubrizol Corp. (LZ), the Wickliffe, Ohio-based maker of engine lubricants.

More evidence of this abounds: Wednesday March 2, (Reuters) - US-based Berkshire Hathaway aims to enter the Indian insurance sector as a corporate agent of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance.

This is part 1 of a series examining the insurance market for expansion, stock valuations, potential risks and opportunities, excluding health care focused companies, a whole other breed of enterprise.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Insured Profits or a Mountain of Risk?

Serious Money: Buffett's Next Buys -- You Pick'em

Prognosticators the world over are throwing in their 2 cents about "my pal Warren's" next market moves; especially since he announced last week that his trigger finger was itchy. When Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A and BRK.B) speaks, investors listen.

On Wednesday March 2, this investor threw in his two cents worth (see:Serious Money: What Should Warren Buffett Do Next?) discussing possible acquisitions. Since all the "pro's", I use the term loosely, have had a say I thought I would give readers a chance to express some of their ideas too.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buffett's Next Buys -- You Pick'em

Serious Money: AIG Takeover by Fairholme Capital?

Perusing through the 13D filings in Barron's November 29 issue I came across news reported by InsiderScore.com regarding American International Group, Inc. (AIG). It was noted that "Fairholme Capital raised its holdings to 39,990,099 shares (29%), by buying 1,765,900 shares from Nov. 5 to Nov. 16 at prices ranging from $41.72 to $43.59."

I do not usually make mention of such things but owning 29% of a company capitalized at $5.6 billion dollars is a lot. I would even go as far as to say that in some circumstances that might equate to controlling interest. Prior to "my pal Warren" (Buffett) making an offer to acquire the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) it only owned 23% of the outstanding shares.

Continue reading Serious Money: AIG Takeover by Fairholme Capital?

AIG Slips on Huge Q3 Loss

AIG logoAmerican International Group (AIG - option chain) stock is trading lower today after the company reported fiscal-Q3 earnings this morning, posting a loss of $2.4 billion, or $17.62 per share, hurt in part by a $1.84 billion loss ($13.65 per share) from discontinued operations, a $1.3 billion deferred tax asset valuation allowance charge, a $1.3 billion goodwill impairment charge on pending sale of AIG Star and AIG Edison. Excluding one-time items, AIG lost $1.47 per share on revenue of $19.09 billion.

Most analysts declined to forecast quarterly results for AIG, due in no small part to its ongoing divestment of some assets to pay off its government bailout. The reason AIG isn't down more on this news is that these kinds of results are expected right now from the insurance behemoth. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on AIG.

Continue reading AIG Slips on Huge Q3 Loss

AIG Devises a Plan to Reduce Government Ownership

AIG logoAmerican International Group (AIG) officials are in talks with the U.S. Treasury Department on ways for AIG to regain its independence, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Of all the government bailouts, AIG was the worse one. In the heyday of the housing bubble, AIG insured billions in shaky loans, loans that blew up when the housing bubble burst. As a consequence, the government has shifted $182.3 billion of taxpayer money into AIG to keep it afloat. Now, two years later, the government is looking for ways to get its money back.

Continue reading AIG Devises a Plan to Reduce Government Ownership

Chasing Value: No Double-Dip Recession

The most common question I get from friends, family, business associates and, well, everyone is -- Do you expect a double-dip recession? My answer is an unequivocal "No!"

This does not mean that I think we are going to experience a dramatic improvement in the economy. We are not. Many of my colleagues seem to oppose my view, so it is not without some trepidation that I take this stand. However, I see the glass half full. My view is that others are overly influenced by "group-think" and the calls of doom.

I do think that we are currently adrift in uncharted waters and we may have a faulty rudder, too. The biggest fear I have is that everyone jabbering about another deep recession may actually cause one.

The following supports why I feel, from what we know, that we are not destined for a double-dip recession:

Continue reading Chasing Value: No Double-Dip Recession

Consider Buying AIG on Government Exit

Although the name American International Group (AIG) is considered a four-letter word by many Americans who are disgusted with the $182.3 billion bailout the company received from the U.S. government, traders on Wall Street seem to be warming up to the idea of buying this pariah's stock once again.

The question is...should you be buying this stock too? I say yes. After all, isn't it about time you benefited from this bailout?

Let's take a look at a few fundamental factors that look promising for the company and what we can learn from the stock chart itself.

Continue reading Consider Buying AIG on Government Exit

AIG Rises on IPO Rumors

AIG logoAmerican International Group (AIG - option chain) shares are rising today as rumors swirl about the possibility that the company might spin off or sell some of its more attractive businesses. Reports today indicate that the board may be considering an IPO for AIA, the company's Asian Insurance unit. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AIG.

AIG opened this morning at $36.56. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.03 and a high of $37.95. As of 12:20, AIG is trading at $37.87 up $2.30 (6.4%). The chart for AIG looks neutral and S&P gives AIG a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Continue reading AIG Rises on IPO Rumors

Option Buyers Extend Their AIG Bet

AIG FlagWith the broader market see-sawing between positive and negative territory, American International Group (AIG) has been consistently higher since the open. Currently, in mid-afternoon trading, the shares are up more than 4% on reports that the company may be restructuring the $35.5 billion sale of its AIA Group to Prudential of the U.K.

Options traders are taking this opportunity to roll existing positions in AIG from the soon-to-expire May series to the June series. Specifically, 9,000 May 55 calls have been sold to close for 27 cents each and 7,000 of the June 55 calls have been bought to open for $1.10. The trader in question effectively paid 87 cents per trade to roll these positions to the later-dated series.

Continue reading Option Buyers Extend Their AIG Bet

American International Group Turns a First-Quarter Profit

American International Group (AIG) announced Friday morning that its first-quarter pre-tax earnings more than doubled to $1.21 per share, handily topping the consensus estimate for 74 cents per share. AIG CEO Robert Benmosche said, "We remain focused on further stabilizing and strengthening our businesses while continuing our restructuring activities, closing the pending transactions, and developing plans to address our highly leveraged capital structure."

The quarter also saw AIG agree to sell parts of its business at a price greater than $51 billion. The company will use the proceeds garnered in order to lessen its endenture to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Continue reading American International Group Turns a First-Quarter Profit

Analyst Calls: BA, HRB, STI, NDAQ, AIG, CHH, ORCL, HCN, COL, MLM

Analyst upgrades

  • Wells Fargo upgraded Boeing (BA) to outperform from market perform. The firm is more confident about the company's earnings growth going forward.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded H&R Block (HRB) to outperform from perform on expectations the company will improve performance in 2011. The firm has a $22 price target for shares.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded SunTrust (STI) to buy from hold to reflect valuation and expectations the company's credit will improve. The firm raised its target for shares to $34 from $29.
  • Children's Place (PLCE) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Taubman Centers (TCO) was upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS.
  • Cavium Networks (CAVM) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Cowen.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: BA, HRB, STI, NDAQ, AIG, CHH, ORCL, HCN, COL, MLM

AIG Downgraded by Keefe Bruyette

Keefe Bruyette on Tuesday downgraded American International Group (AIG) to underperform from market perform and set a price target of $6 per share. The target price is far lower than the stock's current perch in the upper $42 region. The brokerage cut AIG because it "sees little long-term value under AIG's current ownership and capital structure," as theflyonthewall reports. Following the downgrade, shares traded more than 4% lower in pre-market action.

Technically, the assigned target price of $6 is a gutsy move. The stock is perched atop support from its 10- and 20-week moving averages. In addition, the 10-week trendline recently completed a bullish cross of its 20-week counterpart. This technical formation often precedes a continued run higher.

Continue reading AIG Downgraded by Keefe Bruyette

AIG Derivative Exit Costs $2 Billion

Last year, American International Group (AIG) lost up to $2 billion because its Financial Products group unwound most of its remaining trades with Goldman Sachs (GS). Of course, this was the situation that led to the insurer's near-collapse in September 2008. The losses sustained last year resulted from AIG's continued efforts to extract itself from a precarious financial situation.

AIG's realized losses came on approximately $3 billion in mortgage-collateralized debt positions. After last year's extrication, AIG has $1.3 billion in CDOs with Goldman Sachs, because the company believed the positions could perform better than their current prices would reveal.

Continue reading AIG Derivative Exit Costs $2 Billion

AIG Financial Honcho to Dodge Indictment

After two years of digging, it looks like former American International Group (AIG) executive Joseph Cassano will emerge unscathed. Well, at least he won't wind up behind bars.

The former head of AIG Financial Products Group is expected to meet with attorneys from the U.S. Justice Department this week to learn that criminal charges will not be filed. The investigators didn't find any evidence that Cassano fibbed to his superiors, shareholders or outside auditors about the problems brewing in AIG FPG.

Continue reading AIG Financial Honcho to Dodge Indictment

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 12, 2012: 07:49 PM

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