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Some big names set new 52-week highs Tuesday: WAG, ACS, WYE ...

new 52 week highsAll three of the major indexes finished Tuesday in the red, but there were several big names that moved up to new 52-week highs in Tuesday's trading.

Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG): The drugstore giant had a really good day on Wall Street after posting better than expected earnings in the morning before the market opened. The company posted earnings of 44 cents per share versus analyst estimates of 39 cents. The stock set a new 52-week high of $38.44 and closed the day up 9.2% at $37.35.

Continue reading Some big names set new 52-week highs Tuesday: WAG, ACS, WYE ...

Gas prices drive retail sales rebound, coveted brands still struggle

Last summer we lamented the price of gas. This year, however, there's at least one upside. Retail sales for June were up 0.6% - substantially better than the 0.4% anticipated – with the gas prices leading the charge. A slight tip in the brutalized auto manufacturer sector helped, as well. This was the largest retail sales increase in five months.

Gas stations benefited from the cost of fuel, adding a bit of pep to a beleaguered retail industry: sales were up 5% year over year, after doing the same in May. And, car dealers had their best month since January: the sales of cars and parts climbed 2.3%. Nonetheless, this corner of the retail world is still off 14.5% from last year. It may have helped last month, but we're still pretty far from a cure.

Continue reading Gas prices drive retail sales rebound, coveted brands still struggle

Gold bullion sales hit record

Investors are rushing to buy gold bars and coins. The US Mint sold 92,000 American Eagle coins last month, four times that sold a year ago and more than it shipped in all of 2007

This is not only a US phenomenon. Other countries' mints are reporting strong sales. John Reade of UBS reported large purchases of coins, seen as a safe haven investment.

Continue reading Gold bullion sales hit record

Is American Eagle cutting the wrong costs?

With its same-store sales in free fall, American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) is looking to cut costs to prevent margins from tanking in a wave of discounting.

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports that "it hopes to recalibrate its costs with moves that involve everything from changing where a garment is made (fewer Chinese factories and more Indian villages) to how it's shipped (less use of air freight) to how it looks (no patterned pockets in many jeans)."

Continue reading Is American Eagle cutting the wrong costs?

Options Update: Retailers' elevated volatility suggests movement -- AEO, DLTR, WSM

American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) closed at $7.52 Friday. AEO is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on November 25. RBC Capital Markets lowered its price target to $14 from $15. AEO December option implied volatility of 120 is above its 26-week average of 74 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) closed at $35.28 Friday. DLTR is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on November 25. Deutsche Bank has a Hold rating and a $35 price target on DLTR. DLTR December option implied volatility of 84 is above its 26-week average of 59 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) closed at $4.84 Friday. WSM said W. Howard Lester, Chairman & chief executive, sold about 4.2 million shares between October 29 and November 21. Lester also sold WSN shares from October 13 & 14th to cover a margin calls. WSM is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on December 4. Thomas Weisel lowered its 12-month price target from $10 to $8. WSM December option implied volatility of 168 is above its 26-week average of 68 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Discount merchants benefit from high sales in June

Some of the country's largest retail chains had good June sales, benefitting from consumers looking for a place to spend their tax rebates, but this was not the case for higher-priced department stores. Retailers offering big discounts were among the privileges ones as consumers chose to stay away from high prices.

Consumers spent on the basics, looking for bargains, boosting sales at some companies like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), but resulting in losses for the others like Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) and American Eagle (NYSE: AEO). This confirmed that retailers will face further weak demand even during the back-to-school shopping season, and more deep discounts will be needed.

As June is considered a key month for sales, merchants were hoping for a "stimulus" effect from tax rebates, despite worries tied to soaring gasoline and food costs. However, only companies offering cheaper gas like Wal-Mart, Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) saw their dreams accomplished. Thus, Wal-Mart came with June sales growth of 4.3%, Costco reported a 9% increase in June same-store sales, while BJ's Wholesale saw a growth of 16.5%.

Continue reading Discount merchants benefit from high sales in June

Analyst downgrades: AEO, HOLX and BAIRY

MOST NOTEWORTHY: American Eagle, Hologic and British Airways were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Friedman Billings downgraded American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) to Underperform from Market Perform citing slowing top-line growth, difficult macro-environment, and the challenging women's category.
  • Soleil cut Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX) to Hold from Buy as it believes the cancellation of the FDA Radiological Devices Panel means a further delay in the tomosynthesis pre-market approval application.
  • ABN downgraded shares of British Airways (Other OTC: BAIRY) to Sell from Hold as it believes the recent rally in the face of higher oil prices is unjustified. Shares were also lowered at Deutsche Bank to Sell from Buy as it believes the company may not be able to raise ticket prices enough to offset higher fuel costs.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst initiations: PNWIF, BMRN, DBTK and LF

MOST NOTEWORTHY: PhotoChannel Networks, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Double-Take and Leapfrog Enterprises were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Merriman believes PhotoChannel Networks (OTC: PNWIF) is positioned to become a leading provider to the digital photofinishing market through its offering of a fully-integrated solution to retailers. The firm started shares with a Buy rating.
  • Jefferies resumed coverage of BioMarin Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: BMRN) with a Buy rating and $33 target, as they expect strong long-term growth from Aldurazyme and Naglazyme and is optimistic for Kuvan approval and a strong market launch.
  • ThinkEquity is positive on Double-Take's (NASDAQ: DBTK) impressive operating leverage and valuation and started shares off with a Buy rating and $28 target.
  • Needham initiated Leapfrog Enterprises (NYSE: LF) with a Strong Buy rating and $11 target. The firm expects Leapfrog to benefit from its turnaround initiatives in 2008 and for shares to be driven by improving sales and profits.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst upgrades: ERIC, TOT, RIMM, MA and JAVA

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ericsson, Total SA, Research in Motion, MasterCard and Sun Microsystems were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Goldman upgraded shares of Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Buy from Neutral and added the company to their pan-Europe Conviction Buy List, as they believe the factors that lead to the October earnings miss will be rectified and the company will report upside to Q4 estimates.
  • Credit Suisse upgraded Total SA (NYSE: TOT) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation and expectations for a return in upstream volume growth in 2008.
  • Credit Suisse also upgraded Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) to Outperform from Neutral, citing RIMM's expanding international market share.
  • MasterCard (NYSE: MA) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, as they believe the company's margin potential is yet to be fully priced into shares or Street estimates.
  • Citigroup raised shares of Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's improving product line, restructuring, and share buyback. They find the risk/reward attractive and expect solid Q2 results.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Market highlights for next week: Yahoo CEO to testify before Congress

Monday, November 5
Tuesday, November 6
  • Merrill Lynch to host conference call discussing Focus Media's (NASDAQ: FMCN) secondary offering at 11am.
  • Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) CEO Jerry Yang, Senior VP Michael Callahan & General Counsel to testify before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on how their company gave false information to Congress relating to their role in a human rights case in China which resulted in a journalist being sent to jail for 10 years.
Wednesday, November 7
Thursday, November 8
Friday, November 9

Analyst upgrades: AEO, CVS, ODP, WPPGY and PXLW

MOST NOTEWORTHY: American Eagle, CVS/Caremark, Office Depot, WPP Group and Pixelworks were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • American Eagle Outfitters Inc (NYSE: AEO) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia, as the firm believes momentum from a strong Spring/Summer can carry into the fall/Holiday seasons.
  • JP Morgan views CVS/Caremark Corporation (NYSE: CVS) as the most sophisticated healthcare offering, the largest PBM, and has first mover advantage. The firm upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral.
  • JP Morgan also upgraded shares of Office Depot Inc (NYSE: ODP) to Overweight from Neutral based on valuation and potential turnaround.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded WPP Group (NASDAQ: WPPGY) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they believe the company can still meet its profit forecasts and margin goals in a slowing global economy.
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Pixelworks Inc (NASDAQ: PXLW) to Hold from Underperform on valuation as they no longer believe the risk/reward favors shorting at these levels.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: SUN, PRM, WPPGY, PUB and NFX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sunoco, Primedia, WPP Group, Publicis and Newfield Exploration were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Sunco Inc (NYSE: SUN) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America, as the firm believes Sunoco's valuation discount is justified since its net margin/barrel is almost $2.50 below its closest peer due to inferior assets.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Primedia Inc (NYSE: PRM) to Hold from Buy on valuation.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of WPP Group (NASDAQ: WPPGY) to Hold from Buy and shares of Publicis Groupe (NYSE: PUB) to Sell from Hold to reflect their more cautious view of the advertising sector.
  • Goldman sees better catalysts at other E&Ps and downgraded Newfield Exploration Company (NYSE: NFX) to Neutral from Buy.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Cramer has retail bottom fishing picks

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said it is time to start nibbling into retail stocks after he's been negative for a while. He thinks the Fed will start cutting rates soon and not everyone has realized they have bottomed out. The ultimate turnaround stock in the sector will be Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) because of the new management team. He is very particular here to only ease into the stock. He also likes Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) because it is down 20% and has a major growth vehicle. American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) is one that has insiders buying stock.

These 3 picks are interesting picks, although Gap seems to be mauled every month in crummy stores and won't be able to fix itself fast. maybe that huge stock buyback can help it. This one may only have the "less bad is good" future, because its shoppers have abandoned it. It's too hard to love the Gap and in a private equity absent market the hopes for a buyout seem a bit childish. Kohl's and American Eagle are both in a spot that could generate serious returns if these go back to their prior highs. American Eagle at $25.00+ would generate close to a 40% gain if it goes back to a year high of $34.80, and Kohl's at $57.00+ would also show close to a 40% gain for it to hit $79.55.

It is far too easy to call for the death of the consumer because you'd have to say "But, this time the consumer really will be dead." Rumors of the death of the consumer seem to ALWAYS be exaggerated time after time. The safest bet here for the whole retail sector is perhaps the Merrill Lynch Retail HOLDRs, although you should realize that the big box retail plays dominate this and smaller clothing retail plays are not represented well at all in this one. The other targeted ETF for the group is PowerShares Dynamic Retail. That one does have this specific clothing retail mixed into more of a broad pool. It is just less liquid.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter and does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Analyst upgrades 7-10-07: F, FNM, GILD, GM and TTWO

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Greenbrier Cos (GBX), DirecTV Group (DTV), General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Soleil upgraded shares of Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) to Buy from Hold as they believe the new management team has quickly taken multiple steps to address key issues and is refocusing on profitable growth.
  • Morgan Keegan raised Greenbrier Cos (NYSE: GBX) to Market Perform from Underperform following the company's Q3 report.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of DirecTV Group Inc (NYSE: DTV) to Buy from Hold as they see a 75% chance that Liberty Media (LCAPA) tenders for DTV within the next 12 months and could offer $30 a share for the company.
  • JP Morgan upgraded General Motors Corp (NYSE: GM) to Overweight from Neutral with a $50 target and Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) to Overweight from Underweight as they see signs that unions will engage in radical changes, which could bring EPS upside. General Motors was also added to JP Morgan's Focus List...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Friedman Billings added Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) to its Top Pick list.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Market highlights for next week: Monthly sales numbers coming

Monday July 9
Tuesday July 10
  • Electronic Entertainment Expo, or E3, to be held from July 10-July 13 in Santa Monica, California.
  • The Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) to release a 2007 Sales Update at 9am.
  • Sealy Corporation (NYSE: ZZ) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 5pm.

Continue reading Market highlights for next week: Monthly sales numbers coming

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Last updated: November 09, 2009: 05:34 PM

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