American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO - option chain) shares are rising today after the company updated its Q2 EPS forecast to 16 cents, including a 2-cent tax benefit. AEO had previously forecast EPS of 12 to 15 cents, while analysts are expecting EPS of 14 cents. AEO also announced July same store sales that declined more than expected, but that news was offset for traders by the revised forecast. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AEO.

AEO opened this morning at $14.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $14.40 and a high of $14.95. As of 11:30, AEO is trading at $14.70 up 74 cents (5.3%). The chart for AEO looks neutral and S&P gives AEO a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Last summer we lamented the price of gas. This year, however, there's at least one upside. Retail sales for June were up 0.6% - substantially better than the 0.4% anticipated – with the gas prices leading the charge. A slight tip in the brutalized auto manufacturer sector helped, as well. This was the largest retail sales increase in five months.

Gas stations benefited from the cost of fuel, adding a bit of pep to a beleaguered retail industry: sales were up 5% year over year, after doing the same in May. And, car dealers had their best month since January: the sales of cars and parts climbed 2.3%. Nonetheless, this corner of the retail world is still off 14.5% from last year. It may have helped last month, but we're still pretty far from a cure.

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO - option chain) shares are rising today after the company reported a first-quarter profit of $22 million, or 11 cents per share. AEO's adjusted profit of 8 cents per share beat analysts' estimates by a penny. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AEO.

AEO opened this morning at $13.89. So far today the stock has hit a low of $13.51 and a high of $15.24. As of 12:35, AEO is trading at $14.71 up 23 cents (1.6%). The chart for AEO looks neutral and S&P gives AEO a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) was not hot at all in the first quarter. It's funny. You hear about the recession coming to an end this year, about things getting better, and then you check out some retail stats and you begin to wonder.

Anyway, Abercrombie, which shares space at the mall with names like J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), saw its top line decline by 24%. Same-store sales for the company's entire operations dropped 30%. Same-store sales at the Abercrombie & Fitch brand itself plunged 26%. Earnings per share took a dive of more than 50% to $0.31. It should be noted, however, that there is a pending non-cash charge that will be added to these results at a later time.

Mall retailers have been struggling, but Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), whose colleagues include Gap (NYSE: GPS), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), actually posted a pretty decent earnings report on Thursday after the bell. For the fourth quarter, Aeropostale earned $1.01 per share. That performance represented a 6% growth rate, and it beat analyst estimates by the proverbial penny.

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), whose mall colleagues include Gap (NYSE: GPS), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), and Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN), posted Q4 earnings on Wednesday.

The Christmas season was a difficult one for the chain. Sales decreased 9%, and same-store sales declined a whopping 16%. Ouch, sorry to hear that, American Eagle. Earnings came in at 19 cents per share, meeting analysts expectations.

It's the same old story: to move merchandise, things had to be marked down. And that affected profits. Big time.

J. Crew Group (NYSE: JCG) issued a Q4 report that the market seemed to like. The retailer posted a loss of 22 cents per share on Tuesday after the bell. As I said in my earnings preview, Wall Street was bracing for a loss of 27 cents per share. That five-penny beat helped to send J. Crew's shares up by well over 10% in the after-hours session.

I think the buying was a bit overdone. Sure, I'll give credit where credit is due. Management did beat the analysts and their precious earnings models. How much credit should I give beyond that?

Given the current state of the economy all would agree it's going to be a long road home. The market is up today on a few bits of news following what has been a dreadful last ten days. Maybe it's the merger and acquisition activity, maybe it's the news that Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) "let slip" that they earned a profit the first two months of the year. Perhaps the market was just due for a bounce before another slide?

Every day we read various rationales for why the market may be undervalued, or as some believe, still has a long way to drop. We look at stocks of strong companies with historically low price-to-earnings ratios and think now is the time to get in. However, someone will be quick to point out that forward earnings are perhaps going to be less than projected.

If there is anything that makes me think we could be close to a market bottom, it is all the people that have gone off the deep end thinking the world may be coming to an end.

For the time being highly leveraged debt obligations seem to have come to an end. Large independent investment banks may have come to an end for now. The idea of a balanced budget may have come to an end a long time ago. However, the world is not coming to an end.

If anybody out there thinks that the times we live in come close to the Dark Ages, the American Revolution, the Civil War, World Wars I or II, or the Great Depression, then they are wimps who know nothing about history or true misery.

The 2009 clock is ticking loudly. The year has started off with a lot of continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before -- two trillion further in debt, most likely.

Not that this is his doing, but it is his chosen calling, and right now he is calling out to the Senate minority to compromise, and get yet another federal stimulus package off the shelf and out the door.

Anybody have capital gains to show this year? I didn't think so. Not unless you were shorting the market, and in particular financials. I got clobbered with everyone else. There were not many places to hide. Picking winners was like guessing where each piece of debris would land after the tornado moved through town.

The average crystal ball is looking quite foggy about now, nevertheless I have rummaged throughout the stock market to select nine stocks that I think offer more reward than risk. The market is priced for the worst in so many cases that I think the list could have included 50 companies without too much trouble.

In 2007 and 2008 I owned some but not all of the picks for the year. This year I own all of the stocks and they were all acquired in the latter part of the fourth quarter for a new portfolio.

Youth-retailer Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) had a much better third quarter than I thought it would have. I was expecting a lower earnings growth rate and a worse performance in terms of same-store sales. Diluted earnings per share actually rose over 30%, coming in at $0.63. Way to go. And this performance beat expectations by a penny, according to Reuters Estimates. Net sales increased 17%. Double-digit expansion in both the top and bottom lines really is something to crow about in this terrible mall environment.

At least as far as I'm concerned, the 5% fall in same-store sales for the month of November wasn't too bad, especially considering that comps increased 7% for Q3 as a whole. Plus, on a year-to-date basis, comps rose 7%. Management can be proud of its achievements. However, that 5% drop in comparable sales for November is, unfortunately, a sticking point in terms of buying the retailer's stock. The economy has gotten much worse since I wrote about Aeropostale back in August. This decline might be a precursor to more bad times ahead. In fact, the stock is no longer as strong as it was earlier in the year. Shares of Aeropostale are trading closer to a 52-week low as opposed to a 52-week high.

There's no question that Aeropostale, whose colleagues at the mall include Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Gap (NYSE: GPS) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), has been efficiently marketing to its target audience. There's also no question that now may not be the time to roll the dice on a business that caters to fickle demos. Personally, I think Aeropostale offers value at these levels. But I'd still rather wait for the macro economy to improve before getting into this retailer.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), whose competitors at the mall include Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), is part of a sector I'm not much of a fan of currently: retail. Just saying the word aloud makes it sound repulsive these days. Don't get me wrong, retail will come back (someday). For now, though, it's difficult to look at the numbers associated with the industry, especially the same-store sales.

Looking at American Eagle, I can see that its third quarter was, as expected, not too inspiring. Adjusted earnings per share dropped 33% to $0.30. Worse, comps plunged 7%. Last year at this time, comps increased 2%.

It's tough out there, folks, and it probably will get tougher. American Eagle, like every retailer out there, is facing a perplexing problem. What's the best way to get traffic through the door? Marketing and promotions. What do retailers have to focus on this Christmas season? Containment of costs. Margins are important, and management doesn't want them to deteriorate too badly. You can see the challenge. Plus, American Eagle can't really count on its target shopper. Young people are oftentimes fickle and ready to jump to some other business near the food court. Not a great position to be in.

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

"Obama's tax plan would give greater relief to the lower and middle classes; one retailer that would benefit from this is American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO)," says John Reese, editor of Validea, which follows the investment criteria of "legendary" investors such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

"Consumers have had to tighten their wallets and purses because of the slowing economy and rising food and fuel prices. Breaks for average Americans would be welcome news for retailers, which have sputtered amid the downturn.

"In the event of a retail surge, this teen-focused Pittsburgh-based clothing chain should be at the head of the line.

"American Eagle gets approval from two of my Guru Strategies -- computer models that are each based on the published approach of a different Wall Street great. What's more, the two strategies that like the firm are modeled after two of the greatest gurus, Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.

"My conservative Buffett-inspired model looks for stocks with a lengthy history of steadily increasing earnings, as well as a conservative balance sheet.

"Eagle has grown earnings per share in eight of the past ten years, with EPS rising from $0.25 to $1.82 in that time, meeting the first criterion. In addition, the firm has no long-term debt, which my Buffett model loves.

This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.

Which stocks would benefit from a victory by either Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama? To help investors sort through the sectors and stocks best positioned to benefit in a post-election environment, we posed this question to some of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Importantly, this is not a partisan report; each participating advisor has provided a favorite stock for both candidates, focused not on political preferences but unbiased stock analysis. Below we feature those stocks and ETFs that the advisors believe will be the winners depending on which candidate prevails.

McCain Stocks:

Roger Conrad - Comcast (NYSE: CCW)
Gregg Early - Elbit Systems (NASDAQ: ESLT)
Elliott Gue - Paladin Resources (Toronto: PDN)
Doug Fabian - Market Vectors Nuclear Energy (NYSE: NLR)
Vivian Lewis - Barclays (NYSE: BCS)
Bill Martin - CGG Veritas (NYSE: CGV)'
Yiannis Mostrous - Lonking Holdings (OTC: CIMHF)
Carla Pasternak - Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Dividend Income Fund (NYSE: EVT)
Nate Pile - SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
John Reese - General Dynamics (NYSE: GD)
Nathan Slaughter - USEC (NYSE: USU)
Paul Tracy - Shaw Group (NYSE: SGR)
Kelley Wright - CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL)
Tom Vass - Molex (NASDAQ: MOLX)
Martin Hutchinson - Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK), EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG)

Obama Stocks:

Roger Conrad - SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR)
Gregg Early - AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV)
Elliott Gue - SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR)
Doug Fabian - Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI)
Vivian Lewis - Cosan (NYSE: CZZ)
Bill Martin - Geron (NASDAQ: GERN)
Yiannis Mostrous - Dr. Reddy's (NYSE: RDY)
Carla Pasternak - Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP)
Nate Pile - Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)
John Reese - American Eagle (NYSE: AEO)
Nathan Slaughter - Fluor (NYSE: FLR)
Paul Tracy - Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (NYSE: GEX)
Kelley Wright - Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH)
Tom Vass - Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR)
Martin Hutchinson - Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)