Back in August, I discussed my amazement at Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The stock just didn't seem to be acting in a manner which reflected the fundamentals of the business it represents. Well, my bout of amazement continues, because shares of the retailer are up 9% as of this writing on the latest earnings report. One that didn't impress me.
For the third quarter, Abercrombie made, on a reported basis, 44 cents per diluted share compared to 72 cents per diluted share in the year-ago period. After adjustments, earnings came in at 30 cents per share. Okay, that profit drop is bad enough, but wait till I get to the really bad stuff. Which would be revenues. Total sales declined 15%, but same-store sales were even worse: they plunged off the proverbial cliff, falling 22%.
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.
This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.
I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
AEO opened this morning at $14.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $14.40 and a high of $14.95. As of 11:30, AEO is trading at $14.70 up 74 cents (5.3%). The chart for AEO looks neutral and S&P gives AEO a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
Last summer we lamented the price of gas. This year, however, there's at least one upside. Retail sales for June were up 0.6% - substantially better than the 0.4% anticipated – with the gas prices leading the charge. A slight tip in the brutalized auto manufacturer sector helped, as well. This was the largest retail sales increase in five months.
Gas stations benefited from the cost of fuel, adding a bit of pep to a beleaguered retail industry: sales were up 5% year over year, after doing the same in May. And, car dealers had their best month since January: the sales of cars and parts climbed 2.3%. Nonetheless, this corner of the retail world is still off 14.5% from last year. It may have helped last month, but we're still pretty far from a cure.
AEO opened this morning at $13.89. So far today the stock has hit a low of $13.51 and a high of $15.24. As of 12:35, AEO is trading at $14.71 up 23 cents (1.6%). The chart for AEO looks neutral and S&P gives AEO a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) was not hot at all in the first quarter. It's funny. You hear about the recession coming to an end this year, about things getting better, and then you check out some retail stats and you begin to wonder.
Anyway, Abercrombie, which shares space at the mall with names like J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), saw its top line decline by 24%. Same-store sales for the company's entire operations dropped 30%. Same-store sales at the Abercrombie & Fitch brand itself plunged 26%. Earnings per share took a dive of more than 50% to $0.31. It should be noted, however, that there is a pending non-cash charge that will be added to these results at a later time.
The Christmas season was a difficult one for the chain. Sales decreased 9%, and same-store sales declined a whopping 16%. Ouch, sorry to hear that, American Eagle. Earnings came in at 19 cents per share, meeting analysts expectations.
It's the same old story: to move merchandise, things had to be marked down. And that affected profits. Big time.
J. Crew Group (NYSE: JCG) issued a Q4 report that the market seemed to like. The retailer posted a loss of 22 cents per share on Tuesday after the bell. As I said in my earnings preview, Wall Street was bracing for a loss of 27 cents per share. That five-penny beat helped to send J. Crew's shares up by well over 10% in the after-hours session.
I think the buying was a bit overdone. Sure, I'll give credit where credit is due. Management did beat the analysts and their precious earnings models. How much credit should I give beyond that?
Given the current state of the economy all would agree it's going to be a long road home. The market is up today on a few bits of news following what has been a dreadful last ten days. Maybe it's the merger and acquisition activity, maybe it's the news that Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) "let slip" that they earned a profit the first two months of the year. Perhaps the market was just due for a bounce before another slide?
Every day we read various rationales for why the market may be undervalued, or as some believe, still has a long way to drop. We look at stocks of strong companies with historically low price-to-earnings ratios and think now is the time to get in. However, someone will be quick to point out that forward earnings are perhaps going to be less than projected.
If there is anything that makes me think we could be close to a market bottom, it is all the people that have gone off the deep end thinking the world may be coming to an end.
For the time being highly leveraged debt obligations seem to have come to an end. Large independent investment banks may have come to an end for now. The idea of a balanced budget may have come to an end a long time ago. However, the world is not coming to an end.
If anybody out there thinks that the times we live in come close to the Dark Ages, the American Revolution, the Civil War, World Wars I or II, or the Great Depression, then they are wimps who know nothing about history or true misery.
The 2009 clock is ticking loudly. The year has started off with a lot of continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before -- two trillion further in debt, most likely.
Not that this is his doing, but it is his chosen calling, and right now he is calling out to the Senate minority to compromise, and get yet another federal stimulus package off the shelf and out the door.
Anybody have capital gains to show this year? I didn't think so. Not unless you were shorting the market, and in particular financials. I got clobbered with everyone else. There were not many places to hide. Picking winners was like guessing where each piece of debris would land after the tornado moved through town.
The average crystal ball is looking quite foggy about now, nevertheless I have rummaged throughout the stock market to select nine stocks that I think offer more reward than risk. The market is priced for the worst in so many cases that I think the list could have included 50 companies without too much trouble.
In 2007 and 2008 I owned some but not all of the picks for the year. This year I own all of the stocks and they were all acquired in the latter part of the fourth quarter for a new portfolio.
Youth-retailer Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) had a much better third quarter than I thought it would have. I was expecting a lower earnings growth rate and a worse performance in terms of same-store sales. Diluted earnings per share actually rose over 30%, coming in at $0.63. Way to go. And this performance beat expectations by a penny, according to Reuters Estimates. Net sales increased 17%. Double-digit expansion in both the top and bottom lines really is something to crow about in this terrible mall environment.
At least as far as I'm concerned, the 5% fall in same-store sales for the month of November wasn't too bad, especially considering that comps increased 7% for Q3 as a whole. Plus, on a year-to-date basis, comps rose 7%. Management can be proud of its achievements. However, that 5% drop in comparable sales for November is, unfortunately, a sticking point in terms of buying the retailer's stock. The economy has gotten much worse since I wrote about Aeropostale back in August. This decline might be a precursor to more bad times ahead. In fact, the stock is no longer as strong as it was earlier in the year. Shares of Aeropostale are trading closer to a 52-week low as opposed to a 52-week high.
There's no question that Aeropostale, whose colleagues at the mall include Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), Gap (NYSE: GPS) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), has been efficiently marketing to its target audience. There's also no question that now may not be the time to roll the dice on a business that caters to fickle demos. Personally, I think Aeropostale offers value at these levels. But I'd still rather wait for the macro economy to improve before getting into this retailer.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Back in August, I discussed my amazement at Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). The stock just didn't seem to be acting in a manner which reflected the fundamentals of the business it represents. Well, my bout of amazement continues, because shares of the retailer are up 9% as of this writing on the latest earnings report. One that didn't impress me. 
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: 
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction. 
Last summer we lamented the price of gas. This year, however, there's at least one upside. 
Mall retailers have been struggling, but 
Given the current state of the economy all would agree it's going to be a long road home. The market is up today on a few bits of news following what has been a dreadful last ten days. Maybe it's the merger and acquisition activity, maybe it's the news that 
If there is anything that makes me think we could be close to a market bottom, it is all the people that have gone off the deep end thinking the world may be coming to an end.
The 2009 clock is ticking loudly. The year has started off with a lot of continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before -- two trillion further in debt, most likely. 
Anybody have capital gains to show this year? I didn't think so. Not unless you were shorting the market, and in particular financials. I got clobbered with everyone else. There were not many places to hide. Picking winners was like guessing where each piece of debris would land after the tornado moved through town. 
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