Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) closed at $57.84 Monday. APC announced plans to repurchase up to $5 billion, or 18%, of its outstanding shares at the current trading price. APC intends to repurchase about $600 million in shares before the end of the year. APC affirms debt-to-cap ratio of between 25% and 35%. APC October option implied volatility of 45 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.
TiVo (NYSE: TIVO) is scheduled to report Q3 EPS after the market close on August 27. TIVO overall option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 71 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
The stock market is in turmoil today and the reasons can be found elsewhere (including in some peoples' imaginations). But if you are a bottom line investor, then here is where you should be looking. Food and energy exploration are the places to be.
Things can change rapidly, but as of right now food related stocks like Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG), the largest company involved with soy based products, and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), the largest fertilizer company, are up.
In the exploration sector, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), the oil, gas and exploration company, Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR), which is the majority shareholder in Diamond Offshore Drilling and is separating from its tobacco interests, and Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS), the Canadian contract driller that is expanding into the lower 48 states, are all up.
All five stocks have out performed the market this year and that trend does not seem to be in jeopardy yet.
I will update this post with final results after the market close to see how the story ends.
UPDATE: four of the five closed in positive territory when all the major indices were in the red.
APC finished down to $77.69,-0.54 (-0.69%)
BG finished up to $122.40, +0.47 (+0.39%)
LTR finished up to $48.95, +0.45 (+0.93%)
PDS finished up to $26.95, +0.49 (+1.85%)
POT finished up to $223.10 +2.54 (+1.15%)
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of APC and PDS.
Today was a very gloomy day in the stock market with Oil reaching new highs and everything else losing -- almost. Among the few winners, and I mean very few, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), oil, and specialty steel were up. I went through my watch list and found this very short list of winners:
Do stock market analysts take creative writing or are they the ultimate bandwagon guys? The lame information provided by stock market analysts keep providing more fodder for my rants. Last Friday -- Lehman raised Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing relative valuation and strong U.S. gas exposure....well duh!
I have ranted and raved about the poor performance of most analysts for almost the entire time I have been writing for BloggingStocks but the wonders never cease. The stock is at a 52 week high and now they take notice. I don't have their "training" yet I was pushing APC at $40, its low. It closed at $78.15 near its all time high and now Lehman makes the call. To quote a 90 year old Wall Streeter when asked to share what he had learned from his 70 years in the market "Nobody knows nuttin". The following is the two year chart for APC.
The Motley Fool ranted in a similar vain when they discussed a study by Patrick Cusatis and J. Randall Woolridge of Pennsylvania State University that studied 20 years' worth of published earnings estimates made by Wall Street industry analysts. They discovered that analysts were consistently overly optimitsic and that practically speaking, you should ratchet them down to the tune of around 40%; or you'll be sorry.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of APC.
During Thursday's trading, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) hit an all-time high of $78.75 and closed at $77.62. Anadarko was one of my first recommendations after I started writing for BloggingStocks, and is nearing 100% appreciation from the $40 price tag it had when we acquired it.
The 10-year chart below indicates the strong long-term performance of Anadarko, rising about 500% and paying dividends to boot. I cannot say the stock is a bargain at recent highs, but I can emphatically state that this company belongs on your watch list.
After yesterday's closing bell Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) reported strong earnings. Excluding nonrecurring items, Anadarko's earnings totaled $1.44 per share for the quarter. On average, analysts were expecting just $1.22 per share. When compared with last year, Anadarko's quarterly profit per share surged more than 40%.
It should not come as a surprise to many that as crude oil pushed $120 per barrel and gas prices passed $4 a gallon at the pump Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) reached a new 52 week high of $71.12 and finished Tuesday at $70.07. The stock is up over 75% (not including the dividend) since I recommended it last year.
At the time I disclosed that I acquired the stock at $40 and suggested this was a keeper. I like the fact that the company has a substantial amount of its proven oil and natural gas reserves in North America. It also pays a modest dividend 0.52% while sporting a P/E under 9 (TTM). When last I posted on the subject -- Serious Money: great picks: Aluminum Co. of China & Anadarko -- about ten weeks ago, APC was trading at $55, down from its previous high, though still returning a nice gain. That was the time to buy on the dip if you were watching it.
Earlier in the week I posted about finding the market bottom using that age-old handheld calculator, a white paper napkin. So, unfortunately it looks like I may be right again. Not exactly something I was hoping for, but if it has to be, it has to be. I wonder if my old napkin can outperform Wall Street super computers?
Is this an auction to the bottom? Are investors bidding things down instead of up? Looks like it from all the negative sentiment. Consumer sentiment is down, and short sellers are all excited, increasing their negative positions to new highs every day.
And here is the all-telling sign of capitulation: the ever-lying overly optimistic government is starting to admit how bad things are and throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem. When does the turnaround come?
One of our readers commented recently that I had earned his respect because I always tracked and posted my bad picks not just the good picks. I have been told this often but it is not so uncommon in better publications. Barron's weekly and Fortune Magazine both do the same. It's only fair, and should be standard operating procedure. I have not seen James Cramer do it but then he makes thousands of recommendations so how can he track anything?
I also think that in a blog you have the opportunity to establish a dialogue with readers and might even learn something. I have learned plenty from readers and colleagues alike. So having exposed some of my failings in the past month I thought I would look back and and review some of my successful picks.
When I posted Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS eleven months ago in March, ACH was $22.98. It closed yesterday at $39.03 for a 70% gain. It had reached a 52-week high of $90.95 in between. We took some money off the table at $88 and are now playing with the 'house money'. This one has worked out great.
APC, an oil and gas exploration company has a market cap of $26 billion with long term debt of $11.1 billion. APC had September 2007 total revenue of $3 billion.
Crude oil futures are at $91.17, down 1.26% according to Bloomberg.
APC February option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.
Back on August 16, with the Dow opening under 13,000 for the first time since April, our BloggingStocks experts outlined a number of stock plays to ride out this volatile market. Picks ranged from Dow components and other household names to obscure business-to-business giants and foreign market leaders.Here, we review our picks weekly.
In the seventh week since our Volatile Markets stock recommendations, only a few of our picks have seen significant movement.
After stalling last week, South Korean steelmaker Posco (NYSE: PKX), has jumped another $7.39. The 4.08% gain brings Peter Cohan's tip to $188.52, 52.02% higher than its August 16 opening price of $124.01.
Sheldon Liber's recommendation, Huaneng Power International Inc. (NYSE: HNP), gave back some of last week's 18.08% gain this week. Despite the Chinese utility's 6.53% knock, Huaneng still stands a formidable 30.40% higher since our volatile markets feature ran.
Back on August 16, with the Dow opening under 13,000 for the first time since April, our BloggingStocks experts outlined a number of stock plays to ride out this volatile market. Picks ranged from Dow components and other household names to obscure business-to-business giants and foreign market leaders.Here, we review our picks weekly.
Posco (NYSE: PKX)'s gains have tapered a bit -- Peter Cohan's pick followed up last week's 10.41% run with a modest 1.30% rise this week. Still, just six weeks since our Volatile Markets feature, the South Korean steelmaker stands 46.06% higher! Incredible.
This week's big story, however, is Huaneng Power International Inc. (NYSE: HNP), recommended by Sheldon Liber. The Chinese utility nearly doubled its gains as of last week, shooting 18.08% higher, closing Thursday up 39.51% in the last six weeks!
Back on August 16, with the Dow opening under 13,000 for the first time since April, our BloggingStocks experts outlined a number of stock plays to ride out this volatile market. Picks ranged from Dow components and other household names to obscure business-to-business giants and foreign market leaders.Here, we review our picks weekly.
Wow! I hope you looked into Peter Cohan's pick, Posco (NYSE: PKX), when our feature ran. Like a broken record, again I ask how long the South Korean steelmaker can continue these fantastic gains -- 44.37% higher in just five weeks! Even if you bought in last week, you'd already be up 10.41%. Phenomenal.
Also performing handily are two of Sheldon Liber's picks, Huaneng Power International Inc. (NYSE: HNP) and Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC). China's Huaneng rose 1 1/2% since last week to close at $44.99 Thursday, putting it up 18.43% since our virtual purchase August 16. Texas energy concern Anadarko has gushed 4.48% higher since last Thursday, climbing to $52.96, a total gain of 11.54% since our August 16 Volatile Markets feature.
Back on August 16, with the Dow opening under 13,000 for the first time since April, our BloggingStocks experts outlined a number of stock plays to ride out this volatile market. Picks ranged from Dow components and other household names to obscure business-to-business giants and foreign market leaders.
It goes without saying that it's pretty early to begin seriously evaluating our recommendations, but there's no harm in checking in on our stock plays.
Some performed better than others, obviously,but we happily report that all of our picks have gained since the feature ran! Seven picks are beating the Dow, which has gained about 2.95% since its August 15 close. One pick, Starbucks, is behind the Dow but ahead of the Nasdaq Composite Index, while three are trailing the Nasdaq.
Sheldon Liber's pick, Huaneng Power International Inc. (NYSE: HNP), leads the pack, despite one analyst's downgrade of China's top energy utility one day after our stock picks ran. Shares of HNP closed Thursday at $45.62, climbing 20.0% from $37.99 in the two weeks following the volatile-market feature.
Where are our real national energy reserves? Much of it is in private hands. What is the value of those reserves if there is a disruption to foreign oil production or distribution? Get the idea? You better remember the name Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) if you don't already know it. It has substantial oil and natural gas reserves, plus some coal.
Any problem with oil imports and the value of these reserves will go into orbit. Natural gas prices have been depressed for more than a year, and they too are bound to recover, adding further to the value of Anadarko. In February I wrote two stories about Anadarko -- Anadarko Petroleum - hmmm, getting interesting and Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! -- highlighting the hidden value. If you were paying attention then you have a 25% return in just six months, and it's holding up fine in a volatile market. It closed Wednesday at $47.14, 18% off its 52-week high of $55.82, has a P/E of under 10 and pays a small dividend as well. The company is buying back shares, paying down debt and selling off non-core low return businesses.
How many stocks have an ROE of 33, sliding between triple and quadruple its P/E and net profit margins of 47% while having a truly unloved P/S and P/B under 2. You want a company to own for decades, this may be it. The only problem is that I think it will be acquired or merge long before that. If I was Carl Icahn I would own this company already. Alas I'm not, but I do own a small piece, and hope to own more soon.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well - INCLUDING ANY BAD CALLS.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) closed at $57.84 Monday. APC announced plans to repurchase up to $5 billion, or 18%, of its outstanding shares at the current trading price. APC intends to repurchase about $600 million in shares before the end of the year. APC affirms debt-to-cap ratio of between 25% and 35%. APC October option implied volatility of 45 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.
The stock market is in turmoil today and the reasons can be found elsewhere (including in some peoples' imaginations). But if you are a bottom line investor, then here is where you should be looking. Food and energy exploration are the places to be.
Today was a very gloomy day in the stock market with Oil reaching new highs and everything else losing -- almost. Among the few winners, and I mean very few,
Earlier in the week I posted about 
Anadarko Petroleum
Big 3 CEOs drive to Washington to suck up to Congress
GM and Ford ready weak pitches for taxpayer bucks
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A troika of opportunity and trouble 
