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Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007

Seesaw To quote one of my college professors (with thick Chicago accent) "Ya pays yer nickle 'n ya takes ya bes' shot." This year I wrote over 200 stories and reviewed even more stocks. Going over all of this material I came up with the ones listed here as my four best and four worst of the year.
If you would have acquired these eight stocks you would be up 21.79%, about double the NASDAQ, triple the DJIA and 550% over the S&P 500. Had I followed the advice of some of my more astute readers or been more cynical about the forthrightness and leadership in the financial sector, I would have had a really smashing year. As it was, I cannot complain. I think this coming year I will have to analyze some of the feedback even more closely than I have in the past -- keep those comments coming!

Here are the results of the indices from December 28, 2006 through December 27, 2007 for comparison:

Continue reading Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007

Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out

Year-end is almost upon us and I need to get this short list cut down to size with two weeks to go. Because this story is an ongoing process, the heart of the story, the possible stocks, are posted below again, with the latest in bold type as the story builds and I examine things more closely. This week I am adding another energy play in the form of a Canadian Trust. Then I follow with the current edited stock list and the stocks to be cut.

In seeking value stocks that have seen their share prices greatly diminished this past year based on reduced earnings, I came across Precision Drilling Trust ADR (NYSE: PDS), which has a P/E near 5 and a dividend yield over 10%. According to AOL Money & Finance information, the company is Canada's largest drilling contractor, with a fleet of 240 service rigs. Its contract drilling units provide drilling services, equipment supply and repair, and on-site catering and management. PDS has extended its reach into the United States this year and has invested in new technology, replaced older rigs and is preparing for continued expansion. Favorable metrics include a low P/B of 1.57 and high historic profit margins of 40%.

PDS closed yesterday at a price of $15.47 per share, near its 52-week low of $15.35, a low set today during the trading day, and 44% off its high of $27.78. The P/E is a trailing figure and is actually higher but the dividend looks secure. For a few more details see: Chasing Value: Precision Drilling for 10% yield.

Disclosure: I have already bought shares of PDS at $17 in several portfolios.

The following stocks have been put in three groups, considering I want to reduce the number to eight. The first group is highly likely to make the cut based on what I know today. The second group is still under consideration but depends on what the value is in two weeks because of current volatility. The last group is being cut, and I noted why.

Continue reading Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out

Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008

Eight ballThis is going to be a journey ending with eight stock picks for 2008, on December 28, 2007. It is my intention to use the closing prices on that day for those eight stocks as the point of departure to publicly track the results and see if I can beat the market again. This year, as measured through October I have done so. I have also been tracking James Cramer's picks and he too has beaten the market to date, but lags behind me (sorry, couldn't resist). While we made some great picks, we both had some dogs as well. Furthermore, I will be the first one to admit that there is some luck involved in the short run.

Last year I beat the market, earning 29%, and it was my fifth straight year doing so after going down in flames with the rest of you when the tech bubble burst. At that time I also had the pleasure of being an Enron investor as well, so I have made plenty of blunders. But I have learned a lot from my mistakes, and hopefully others can learn from them as well as I share my investing adventures and how I turned things around.

Continue reading Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008

Fed meets: Do more rate cuts equal $100 oil? APC & AAUK up up and away

The Federal Reserve Board is meeting Tuesday and Wednesday and all eyes will be looking for a rate cut and some clue as to their future bias. When I say all eyes, I mean all eyes; Wall Street, large and small investors, mortgage lenders, big banks, mortgage holders, buyers of our Treasury notes, foreign bankers and foreign treasuries, currency traders - you name it, they're watching!

Crude Oil Rises to Record Above $93 as Mexico Idles Production and could reach $100 a barrel before too long if global events like war, weather, and a weak dollar continue to remain in the headlines. You have heard the term petro-dollars: this is a factor in rising prices. If oil is paid for in dollars and the dollar falls in value compared to other currencies, then it seems only natural that as the value of the dollar falls oil rises. This happens as the oil exporting nations try and maintain a globally stable price. A weaker dollar increases the price of oil for Americans but not so for Europeans. They can exchange their strong Euros for dollars and might even be buying oil at a discount.

This may make pump prices in Europe relative to ours more stable, but it has foreign corporations and Goverenment Treasuries up in arms because they don't want to see their balance of trade and global competitveness negatively affected. The IMF raised concerns last week as did I in Bush administration pushing dollar down or allowing it to fall? IMF chief sounds alarm followed up by my concern that our government does not seem to be concerned in: Is Bush giving the country away without knowing it? It may be advantageous to those at the top of the food chain, but what of the people who are not in the stock market and have to put a higher percentage of their (strained) income into energy costs for gas, and food costs for higher milk, sugar, and other staples?

Continue reading Fed meets: Do more rate cuts equal $100 oil? APC & AAUK up up and away

Chasing Value update 4: Some great some not: ACH, BSC, CX, DUK, JNJ, USG

This is the fourth update on the stock price status of the first seventeen Chasing Value companies. Closing prices are from September 14, 2007.

The first quarter produced amazing results but the second quarter was downright sad. No one will be surprised to see that anything touching constuction or finance took a bath. I own most of these stocks, so if you do too, I feel your pain. Anyone considering my commentary should "do their homework" too, as James Cramer says on his Mad Money TV show. These recommendations are from the first and second quarter 2007 and I have linked to the original stories.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) closed at $35.66 down from $35.76: a loss of -0.02%, even money.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Anadarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) closed at $50.58 up from $40.84: A gain of 23.85%.

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS: Aluminum Corp. of China (ADS) (NYSE: ACH) closed at $60.95 up from $22.98: A gain of 165%

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) closed at $28.90 up from $24.65: A gain of 17.24%

March 23, 2007 Chasing Value: Cemex and LaFarge look solid: CEMEX S.A. B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: CX) closed at $29.17 down from $34.92: A loss of -16.47%. LaFarge (ADS) (NYSE: LR) closed at $37.80 from $39.02: A loss of -3%.

Cemex sank with the continuous reports of the deteriorating housing market in the United States. In the meantime it continues to move forward with the integration of Rinker, the largest supplier of construction materials in Australia. This makes Cemex the largest in the world and sets the stage for continued growth in Southeast Asia. It also is continuing to focus on reducing debt.

Of all the stocks I have written about in the Chasing Value section, I feel that this one suffered the most from guilt by association. I believe it was fairly valued before and it is on sale now. This company, with it's PEG ratio at .83 and lowered, P/E, P/S, P/B (SEE: AOL Money & Finance) has a ROE over 22 and pays about a 2% dividend yield.

Continue reading Chasing Value update 4: Some great some not: ACH, BSC, CX, DUK, JNJ, USG

Serious Money: S&P rates Anadarko (APC) a 'hold' with a 20% return?

Anadarko PetroleumThis is a follow up to last week's story Volatile Markets: Anadarko Petroleum (APC) has valuable fuel reserves. I was looking at the latest Standard & Poors report about Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) and as usual find there are many things in the investment world that are quite perplexing. S&P gives the stock a 3 star rating (out of five) which by their methodology is a "hold". At the time of the report, last Friday August 17, 2007, a day after my story, APC was selling for $48.55. The report includes a 12 month target price by their own estimation of $58.00 per share.

This troubles me and maybe someone reading this post can explain it, or at least rationalize this to the rest of us. If S&P believes their own analysis then they are figuring this stock will be worth about 20% more next year (actually 19.46%) and rate it a hold. So that begs the question, why isn't a 20% return worthy of a buy rating. Obviously they disassociate their price target from their over all analysis, but I can't help but feel that this is bizarre. I would gladly take a 20% return on investment, wouldn't you?

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well, including any of my bad calls.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Chasing Value update 3: SCOREBOARD BABY!

This is the third update on the stock price status of the first six Chasing Value companies. Closing prices are from July 5, 2007. I keep track of my recommendations and thought I would share the results as I do most everything else in my posts. Anyone considering my commentary should "do their homework" too, as James Cramer rants on his Mad Money TV show. These recommendations are all from the first quarter 2007.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) closed at $35.32 down from $35.76: a loss of 1%.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Anadarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) closed at $52.40 up from $40.84: A gain of 28.3%.

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS: Aluminim Corp. of China (ADS) (NYSE: ACH) closed at $46.16 up from $22.98: A gain of 101%

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) closed at $30.98 up from $24.65: A gain of 25.68%

March 23, 2007 Chasing Value: Cemex and LaFarge look solid: CEMEX S.A. B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: CX) closed at $37.38 up from $34.92: A gain of 7%. LaFarge (ADS) (NYSE: LR) closed at $45.56 from $39.02: A gain of 16.76%.

Some day I will have to eat humble pie, but not today. As you can see, 5 of the 6 stocks are up and beat the market indices and most funds, individually and collectively, by a very large margin, and I have not included the dividends.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Disclosure: I own APC, ACH and CX in several portfolios.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Chasing Value Update 2: doing well with WFC, APC, ACH, AAUK, CX, and LR

This is the second update on the stock price status of the first six Chasing Value companies. Closing prices are form May 29, 2007. I keep track of my recommendations and anyone considering my commentary should "do their homework" too, just as James Cramer rants on his Mad Money TV show. Since I was tracking these picks I thought I would summarize the findings for our readers. Yes, the time frame is rather short, nevertheless here is the data through the end of May.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) closed at $35.32 down from $35.76: a loss of 1.5%.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Anadarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) closed at $52.40 up from $40.84: A gain of 28.3%.

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS: Aluminim Corp. of China (ADS) (NYSE: ACH) closed at $46.16 up from $22.98: A gain of 101%.

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) closed at $30.32 up from $24.65: A gain of 23%

March 23, 2007 Chasing Value: Cemex and LaFarge look solid: CEMEX S.A. B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: CX) closed at $38.88 up from $34.92: A gain of 11.34%. LaFarge (ADS) (NYSE: LR) closed at $43.23 from $39.02: A gain of 10.78%.

So far so good; 6 of the 6 stocks are up and 5 of the 6 beat the market indices and I have not included the dividends. Not bad after all.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Disclosure: I own APC and ACH in several portfolios.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Oreo treats in Afghanistan

A friend of mine, T.R., is an officer in the Air Force, currently stationed in Kabul, Afghanistan: not exactly a resort, and not a place you would want to spend another 250 days in. He tells me the troops like Oreo cookies -- made by Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) -- of all things. They like them better than "homemade." Perhaps, greater reliability; an important concept in the military. Perhaps it is the preservatives; also an important concept in the military.

Here is the most interesting thing about his email. He reads all my stories and he informed me that he bought one of the oil stocks I recommended and sold it for a quick 10% profit. Now that brings several thoughts to mind. First, there is the dramatic impact the Internet has had on the ability of people to stay connected to the world -- trading stocks from Afghanistan! Second, I'm a buy-and hold-guy and evidently he is not. All of my oil-related picks have continued to rise --Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) and Anadark Petroleum (NYSE: APC) in particular -- and he would have been wiser to hold on to them. Of course when you are in a war zone, perhaps your time horizon is now, so who can blame him.

When I relayed this story to someone else, he fantasized about an "enemy combatant" in a bunker a mile away also reading my story and trading stocks. Not likely unless it was an Al Qaeda or Taliban leader moving money to Switzerland or the Bahamas, as warlords are prone to do.

Anyway T.R., when you read this you should know you are loved and respected, and your friends miss you and can't wait for your safe return. And more Oreos are on the way!

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Chasing Value: WFC, APC, ACH, AAUK update

This is an update on the stock price status of the first four Chasing Value companies. I was tracking my ideas and thought if I was doing this anyway I might as well share it with readers. I'll be the first one to acknowledge the time frame is rather short, nevertheless here is the data through the end of April.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo closed at 35.59 from 35.76: 17 cent loss: Basically even money.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! closed at 46.66 from 40.84: A gain of 14.55%

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS closed at 29.05 from 22.98: A gain of 26.41%

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more closed at 26.39 from 24.65: A gain of 7%

So far so good; 3 of the 4 stocks beat the market and the average of the four, at 12% beat the market by a large margin as well.

Those of you who are new to Bloggingstocks.com can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Disclosure: I own APC and ACH in several portfolios.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more

Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is really a United Kingdom based company with no American history, although a long history it has. We are continuing our search for value stocks as we very methodically place new money in the market. Our first purchase was an old favorite: Washington Mutual, Inc. (NYSE:WM). We recently acquired it at $40 per share after following it down from $47. Yesterday, Georges Yared posted Washington Mutual: A ridiculously cheap pick in sub-prime panic and we agree with him totally....take a look at the depressed price, the 5.3% yield and more.

We like the Anglo American company and the stock for numerous reasons. It came to our attention initially because it has a 1.17 price-to-sales ratio (P/S), a price-to-book ratio of 1.29 (P/B), and a yield over 2%. To go along with those metrics it has been growing at 15% to 20% over the last few years as the world demand for gold and platinum has increased. You can check out the fundamentals at AOL Money & Finance as a starting point for your own research if you are interested.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more

Optimists view +2 : Down markets are for bargain hunters!

I have written several stories questioning James Cramer's investing approach and stock picks, but I can tell you all that there are many words of wisdom he has shared as well. One thought that I have cherished is that "there is always a bull market somewhere." Continuing on that train of thought I know that Warren Buffett has wondered out loud why people get so happy when the market prices rise. When he goes shopping (investing) he wants to find a bargain, and pay less not more for that which he seeks. So with that in mind I present some stocks that are looking mighty appealing after Tuesday's significant stock market drop. At least put them on your watch list after checking them out.

For Starters:

Aluminum Corporation of China ADS (NYSE: ACH) P/E = 7.82, P/S = 0.65, P/B = 0.62, yield = 5.57% Bought this one yesterday at $22.00, it closed at 22.60 but has jumped up in early morning trading.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) P/E = 6.87, P/S = 2.76, P/B = 1.41, yield = 0.88% I Had to list this one after my two recent write-ups including last Friday's Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Bought this one last week at $40.00. It closed at $39.98 on a small drop and was back over my water line in after hours trading.

Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) P/E = 12.50, P/S = 1.16, P/B = 0.96, yield = 4.19% Own this in my Roth IRA. Yesterday it closed at 19.63 down slightly, but in dubious markets you must own some utilities.

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) P/E = 11.64, P/S = 1.95, P/B = 1.61, yield = 4.98% Own this in my Roth IRA also. Yesterday it closed at $42.36 down 0.98 (-2.26%_, but it has a monster yield and has been trading in a tight range for several years, while earnings have grown. It may also be a sweet takeover target and has been mentioned periodically as such in business journals.

Two More:

Fidelity National Financial 'A' (NYSE: FNF) P/E = 9.96, P/S = 0.67, P/B = 1.62, yield = 4.94% I do not own this stock but I have been tracking it for a year. The numbers speak for themselves. Looking at it's ten year chart indicates it has generally demonstrated consistant growth. Yesterday it closed at $24.26 off 3 cents. FNF is a title insurance company, which explains it's high valuation during the recent boom years, but now that the housing market has come back down to earth FNF's stock is worthy of consideration.

Old Republic International (NYSE: ORI) P/E = 11.59, P/S = 1.41, P/B = 1.23, yield = 2.70% Another insurance company that has been around a long time. I picked it from my watch list for possible addition to yours. It has a profit margin higher than the P/E of 14.49%. Given that It's has a capitalization is only $5.14 billion, it could easily be acquired by a larger company seeking predictable earnings and growth. The 52 week price variation is $3.66 so this is a stable company for uncertain times. Yesterday it closed at $22.23 down pennies.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it!

After watching Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:APC) for quite some time I finally pulled the trigger at $40 per share on Wednesday, February 21, 2007. More precisely, I put a GTC (good till canceled) order on it after my stock alert was triggered at $42 per share. That day, two weeks ago, I shared my views about APC when I wrote Anadarko Petroleum - hmmm, getting interesting. APC was on my watch list for a long time.

Anadarko closed Thursday at $40.76. You can check out the Fundamentals here.

On Wednesday when the Associated Press reported: "Among laggards, Anadarko Petroleum Corp.'s stock fell after a Prudential Equity Group analyst lowered his price target on the energy company. The Woodlands, Texas, company's stock shed $1.31, or 3.2 percent, to $40.02 on the Big Board." My opportunity came when an analyst commented - you all know I love analysts! The price dipped momentarily below $40 and scooped me and a lot of other happy investors up, then closed up for the day despite the comments, because oil prices were going up.

The five year chart below indicates that APC first peaked at about $40 two years ago and passed $56 about nine months ago. Its 52-week low is $39.51 and, although I do not support technical analyses, still I must admit being slightly influenced by what I thought would be a bottom. I was influenced equally by the thought of a few deals that got away because I was too measured in my view, seeking the very lowest price and missing out when something changed direction. Since I am looking for a long-term hold I did not want to miss the boat for a buck in this case.

Continue reading Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it!

Anadarko Petroleum - hmmm, getting interesting

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) is on my watch list. It closed today at $42.47 down 48 cents. It popped up on my screen when it hit my target of $42.00 per share and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 5; that's very low for this caliber of company.

So I took a closer look at some other factors. I already liked the fact that they are deeply involved in energy -- a currently undervalued segment of the economy. Half its oil and natural gas reserves are in North America and management has been making good decisions for a decade, so the track record is there. One decision I like was increasing its reserves and selling some Gulf Coast assets.

Anadarko has a 52-week high of $56.97 and is near it's low of $39.51. At 36% off it's high it is looking very tempting. Oil and natural gas prices are down significantly and APC's price reflects that; however, I'm thinking, do they go up from here, or down -- which is more likely? I say up eventually, and sooner rather than later. What do I get if I buy and hold? Maybe 'dead money' for six to nine months plus a small dividend yield of .83% or maybe prices rise and the stock just makes a small move up.

Continue reading Anadarko Petroleum - hmmm, getting interesting

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DJIA+4.7710,438.48
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S&P 500+1.221,106.87

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 10:06 AM

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