Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC - option chain) stock is trading lower today the company said a well off the coast of the Ivory Coast revealed no hydrocarbons. APC had drilled to a total depth of approximately 14,900 feet in about 6,100 feet of water. Even a lift in crude oil prices to another year high is not enough to keep APC from falling 5% on this news. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on APC.

This morning, APC opened at $65.58. So far today the stock has hit a high of $67.20 and a low of $64.85. As of 11:45, APC is trading at $65.62, down $3.74 (-5.4%). The chart for APC looks neutral and S&P gives APC a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

There are analysts and oil gurus who argue that $30 per barrel oil is possible if the U.S./global economic recoveries stall.

$30 oil? Don't count on it, which is why I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), first recommended on May 14, 2009 at a price of $43.55.

After a nine-week stock market rally it is time to tally up the winners and losers. In a market where almost everything gained, there must eventually be separation between those that went with the flow and those that had something to show.

The financial stocks, with the help of the government, were able to show some positive earnings. The banks do raise the suspicion that this is a case of "managing the numbers".
The government has helped them along by "reshaping" some accounting rules and giving them advance warning (and leaking to the public) of the results of its stress testing. Until now, they have gone with the flow as the hardest hit stocks and rallied the most.

Last night it was reported by Reuters, following up on an interview in the Financial Times (subscription required) that James Hackett, chairman and chief executive of independent oil and gas company Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) said, "Washington's energy and environmental policy risks plunging the United States into an economic tailspin that could make it the world's cleanest third world country."

Seems he is not partial to the global warming crowd as indicated by his statement that "The histrionic and maniacal focus on carbon dioxide is intellectually repugnant to me," but how does he really feel?

The 2009 clock is ticking loudly. The year has started off with a lot of continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before -- two trillion further in debt, most likely.

Not that this is his doing, but it is his chosen calling, and right now he is calling out to the Senate minority to compromise, and get yet another federal stimulus package off the shelf and out the door.

There has been little to cheer about this earnings season, and even mediocre news has brought hope to some. However, today Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), one of my long time favorites, has reported that profits rose three-fold to $824 million, or $1.79 a share, versus $264 million, or 56 cents a share, from last year.

This result is in good part due to the sale of a Brazilian oil field and non-cash hedging gains related to derivatives.

Anybody have capital gains to show this year? I didn't think so. Not unless you were shorting the market, and in particular financials. I got clobbered with everyone else. There were not many places to hide. Picking winners was like guessing where each piece of debris would land after the tornado moved through town.

The average crystal ball is looking quite foggy about now, nevertheless I have rummaged throughout the stock market to select nine stocks that I think offer more reward than risk. The market is priced for the worst in so many cases that I think the list could have included 50 companies without too much trouble.

In 2007 and 2008 I owned some but not all of the picks for the year. This year I own all of the stocks and they were all acquired in the latter part of the fourth quarter for a new portfolio.

Weakness in oil prices, trading around $42 per barrel this morning due to global economic fears and a real recession are creating opportunities for those with cash to invest.

The volatility in the market is raising many questions among investors, and friends and acquaintances often use me as a sounding board. Hey Wally, this is a partial answer to this morning's question.

As usual I am putting my money where my mouth is, and buying. For quite some time I have been touting the value of Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC). I recommended it at $40, followed it up to $80, took something off the table and today I am back in at $32.

If I would have had a real crystal ball I might have taken all of it off the table, alas, I have to settle for humbly admitting mine is sometimes on the hazy side. Crushing markets like the one we're in are a very humbling experience indeed. I did learn something from the last go around in 2000-01 and have done better this time.

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) closed at $57.84 Monday. APC announced plans to repurchase up to $5 billion, or 18%, of its outstanding shares at the current trading price. APC intends to repurchase about $600 million in shares before the end of the year. APC affirms debt-to-cap ratio of between 25% and 35%. APC October option implied volatility of 45 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

TiVo (NYSE: TIVO) is scheduled to report Q3 EPS after the market close on August 27. TIVO overall option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 71 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 44; 26-week average is 38

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

The stock market is in turmoil today and the reasons can be found elsewhere (including in some peoples' imaginations). But if you are a bottom line investor, then here is where you should be looking. Food and energy exploration are the places to be.

Things can change rapidly, but as of right now food related stocks like Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG), the largest company involved with soy based products, and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), the largest fertilizer company, are up.

In the exploration sector, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC), the oil, gas and exploration company, Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR), which is the majority shareholder in Diamond Offshore Drilling and is separating from its tobacco interests, and Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS), the Canadian contract driller that is expanding into the lower 48 states, are all up.

All five stocks have out performed the market this year and that trend does not seem to be in jeopardy yet.

I will update this post with final results after the market close to see how the story ends.

UPDATE: four of the five closed in positive territory when all the major indices were in the red.

• APC finished down to $77.69, -0.54 (-0.69%)
• BG finished up to $122.40, +0.47 (+0.39%)
• LTR finished up to $48.95, +0.45 (+0.93%)
• PDS finished up to $26.95, +0.49 (+1.85%)
• POT finished up to $223.10 +2.54 (+1.15%)

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of APC and PDS.

Today was a very gloomy day in the stock market with Oil reaching new highs and everything else losing -- almost. Among the few winners, and I mean very few, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), oil, and specialty steel were up. I went through my watch list and found this very short list of winners:

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) $78.49, up +$0.95 or 1.23%

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) $185.90, up +$2.30 or 1.25%

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) $49.92, +$0.85 up +$1.73%

Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS) $27.90, up $1.13, or 4.22%

Reliance Steel and Aluminum (NYSE: RS) $67.37, +0.$52, or 0.78%

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $50.12, up +$0.43 or 0.87%

Do stock market analysts take creative writing or are they the ultimate bandwagon guys? The lame information provided by stock market analysts keep providing more fodder for my rants. Last Friday -- Lehman raised Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing relative valuation and strong U.S. gas exposure....well duh!

I have ranted and raved about the poor performance of most analysts for almost the entire time I have been writing for BloggingStocks but the wonders never cease. The stock is at a 52 week high and now they take notice. I don't have their "training" yet I was pushing APC at $40, its low. It closed at $78.15 near its all time high and now Lehman makes the call. To quote a 90 year old Wall Streeter when asked to share what he had learned from his 70 years in the market "Nobody knows nuttin". The following is the two year chart for APC.

The Motley Fool ranted in a similar vain when they discussed a study by Patrick Cusatis and J. Randall Woolridge of Pennsylvania State University that studied 20 years' worth of published earnings estimates made by Wall Street industry analysts. They discovered that analysts were consistently overly optimitsic and that practically speaking, you should ratchet them down to the tune of around 40%; or you'll be sorry.

During Thursday's trading, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) hit an all-time high of $78.75 and closed at $77.62. Anadarko was one of my first recommendations after I started writing for BloggingStocks, and is nearing 100% appreciation from the $40 price tag it had when we acquired it.

The 10-year chart below indicates the strong long-term performance of Anadarko, rising about 500% and paying dividends to boot. I cannot say the stock is a bargain at recent highs, but I can emphatically state that this company belongs on your watch list.

After yesterday's closing bell Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) reported strong earnings. Excluding nonrecurring items, Anadarko's earnings totaled $1.44 per share for the quarter. On average, analysts were expecting just $1.22 per share. When compared with last year, Anadarko's quarterly profit per share surged more than 40%.

Shares ended Monday at up $1.04 to $68.14, and rose over 10% today to $75.04 as oils prices continue to surge. It was only last week I posted Chasing Value: Anadarko (APC) up 75% -- hits new 52-week high but I guess it will move higher still.

The other good news is that it has more than halved its debt since acquiring Kerr-McGee IN 2006.

It should not come as a surprise to many that as crude oil pushed $120 per barrel and gas prices passed $4 a gallon at the pump Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) reached a new 52 week high of $71.12 and finished Tuesday at $70.07. The stock is up over 75% (not including the dividend) since I recommended it last year.

At the time I disclosed that I acquired the stock at $40 and suggested this was a keeper. I like the fact that the company has a substantial amount of its proven oil and natural gas reserves in North America. It also pays a modest dividend 0.52% while sporting a P/E under 9 (TTM). When last I posted on the subject -- Serious Money: great picks: Aluminum Co. of China & Anadarko -- about ten weeks ago, APC was trading at $55, down from its previous high, though still returning a nice gain. That was the time to buy on the dip if you were watching it.