Minyanville contributor Minyan Peter dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
I will make my visit to the soap box this morning very brief. When I read comments like the following from Wachovia(NYSE: WB) this morning, my skin crawls:
"The $18.8 billion in noncash goodwill impairment reflect[s] declining market valuations and the terms of the merger with Wells Fargo; the recognition of the impairment affected the retail and small business, commercial, wealth management and asset management subsegments. The goodwill impairment charge has no impact on Wachovia's tangible capital levels or regulatory capital ratios, because goodwill is deducted when computing those ratios."
Let me put what Wachovia just said in plain language:
'In hindsight, we paid $18.8 billion more than we should have for the businesses we bought. But it doesn't matter. The cash went out the door long ago. And because the regulators were at least smart enough to realize we were overpaying, they didn't let us count the $18.8 billion as capital. So none of this should bother you.'
So when you open your next brokerage statement and your stocks are worth less than they were last month, try expressing your feelings like you are the CEO of a one of the world's largest financial institutions:
"The $10,000 in noncash impairment that I took this month reflects declining market values, but that's okay, at least I didn't have to write a check for $10,000 this month."
Merrill upgraded Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) to Buy from Neutral citing the company's better near-term pipeline outlook with two potential blockbusters to be approved over the next year. Schering-Plough's target was raised to $23 from $20.
Jefferies downgraded shares of Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX) to Hold from Buy as they see limited near-term catalysts after the company reported a Q3 miss and lowered top-line guidance for FY08. The firm lowered their target to $24 from $28.
Baird downgraded California Pizza (NASDAQ: CPKI) to Neutral from Outperform as they see limited near-term upside given the uncertain 2H08/2009 outlook. The company's target was lowered to $15 from $17.
JP Morgan downgraded Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL) and CB Richard Ellis (NYSE: CBG) to Neutral from Overweight due to the continued challenging economic environment.
Analyst initiations:
BC Capital initiated Dollar Financial(NYSE: DLLR) with an Outperform rating and $24 target. The firm likes Dollar's geographically diversified business and valuation.
Do stock market analysts take creative writing or are they the ultimate bandwagon guys? The lame information provided by stock market analysts keep providing more fodder for my rants. Last Friday -- Lehman raised Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing relative valuation and strong U.S. gas exposure....well duh!
I have ranted and raved about the poor performance of most analysts for almost the entire time I have been writing for BloggingStocks but the wonders never cease. The stock is at a 52 week high and now they take notice. I don't have their "training" yet I was pushing APC at $40, its low. It closed at $78.15 near its all time high and now Lehman makes the call. To quote a 90 year old Wall Streeter when asked to share what he had learned from his 70 years in the market "Nobody knows nuttin". The following is the two year chart for APC.
The Motley Fool ranted in a similar vain when they discussed a study by Patrick Cusatis and J. Randall Woolridge of Pennsylvania State University that studied 20 years' worth of published earnings estimates made by Wall Street industry analysts. They discovered that analysts were consistently overly optimitsic and that practically speaking, you should ratchet them down to the tune of around 40%; or you'll be sorry.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of APC.
Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) stock is falling with other banks this morning after an analyst at Oppenheimer cut earnings estimates for many major banks, predicting bank losses will be the highest in the past 20 years or more due to greater individual defaults on mortgages and other loans. The analyst cut BAC's first-quarter EPS estimate to $0.92 per share from $1.01 per share, and cut BAC's fiscal-2008 estimate to $3.65 per share from $4.10 per share. Also contributing to the finance woes is Goldman Sach (NYSE: GS)'s news it expects further writedowns. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on BAC.
After hitting a one-year high of $53.15 last February, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.12 in January. BAC opened this morning at $42.27. So far today, the stock has hit a low of $41.77 and a high of $42.50. As of 10:55, BAC is trading at $42.46, down 14 cents (-0.3%). The chart for BAC looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
Bloomberg News reports that an analyst at the Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) published a report about Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) that hammered Merrill's stock. The culprit? The Goldman analyst William Tanona predicts that Merrill will need to write off $4 billion worth of fixed-income assets, resulting in the lowest quarterly earnings in almost six years. Merrill shares fell as much as 2.8% after Tanona cut his third-quarter earnings estimate to 15 cents a share from $1.95. For the full year, Tanona said he expects earnings of $6.75 a share, or 25% less than his previous prediction.
I have always found it interesting to read analysts reports from investment banks pertaining to their competitors. In Tanona's case. investors seem to have given his reasoning significant weight, despite the evident conflict of interest inherent in Goldman dissing a competitor. Of course, in Goldman's mind, Merrill is likely seen as a cut below.
Nevertheless, if Tanona is right, Merrill may be among the first to take a hard look at the true market value of its fixed income assets -- which include mortgage backed securities (MBSs), collateralized loan obligations (CDOs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). This alphabet soup of dodgy investments is likely to cost many other firms a significant amount of their capital. And the day of reckoning is fast approaching.
ABT cut to Sell at Merrill Lynch. AKAM reitr Buy at Jefferies. ALD started as Overweight at Wachovia. AMT raised to Focus List at JPMorgan. ANPI cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch. APA raised to Overweight at Lehman. BF/B started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs. BHI raised to Overweight at JPMorgan. BPO started as Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley. BSX cut to Neutral at Merrill Lynch. COLM cut to Hold at Citigroup. COST cut to neutral at B of A. CRYP cut to Sector Underperform at CIBC. DHI cut to Neutral at B of A. DO cut to Underweight at JPMorgan. DOW cut to Neutral at B of A. FTI raised to Overweight at JPMorgan. GSF cut to Underweight at JPMorgan. HME raised to Outperform at Wachovia. LCAPA raised to Buy at Citigroup. MDC cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse. MRVL target and estimates cut at multiple firms on warning.. PHM cut to Sell at B of A. REP cut to Equal Weight at Lehman. RFMD raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse. RIG cut to Underweight at JPMorgan. SBAC started as Underweight at JPMorgan. SEPR cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs. SNE cut to Neutral at Goldman Sachs. SPF raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse. STJ raised to Buy at Merrill Lynch. TROW cut to Mkt Perform at Wachovia. UNF started as Overweight at JPMorgan. WBMD raised to Neutral at Goldman Sachs. WCI cut to Neutral at B of A. XMSR raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.