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Options Update: Baxter volatility low at 22 into analyst day

Baxter (NYSE: BAX) is hosting an analyst day on September 16. BAX closed at $55.60. BAX September option implied volatility of 22 is near its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) closed at $23.09. Natural gas is recently up 1.32% to 2.844 according to Bloomberg. CHK September option implied volatility is at 45, October is at 47; below its 26-week average of 61, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Margins improving at Sun, but no real growth yet

Sun Microsystems Inc (NASDAQ: SUNW), the networking computing company, reported impressive cash generation metrics last night, while sales continued to be light.

For the June 2007 fiscal year, Sun generated $1.2 billion in operating income and cash flow from operations of $950 million -- a vast improvement. Gross margin also improved 200 basis points for the year and almost 400 basis points from last year's Q4.

The problem at Sun continues to be revenue growth, as there was little year-over-year growth in the current quarter and the company is guiding to low-to-mid single digit revenue growth for the year -- which is not a good sign for a technology company. Also, the company provided no guidance for the upcoming quarter, leaving much of the growth to the tail end of FY 2008, which typically is not good.

Sun announced that it will host its analyst day in New York on September 5 and mentioned that it will discuss its capital structure, which is not a subject that is typically highlighted, a sign something more dramatic might happen with the $5 billion in balance-sheet cash.

Overall, Sun has little downside risk and has a private equity investment via a convert priced in the $7 price range. The computer-is-the-network company appears it might be setting itself up for a private equity deal with its focus on higher margin businesses and better cost controls.

Be careful chasing retailer Liz Claiborne

Liz Clairborne Inc (NYSE: LIZ) was mentioned in Barron's "Weekday Trader" as a stock to look at. However, be careful jumping into this retailer, with the one caveat being that private equity could scoop up the company.

Barron's cited insider buying and the upcoming analyst day as reasons that could spur investor interest, which are good reasons. Also, Liz's stock now sells for $38.45, down 28% from the $46.60 high posted earlier in the year.

However, one has to question the hiring of William McComb, a long-time Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) executive, to become head of one of the most influential fashion companies in New York. McComb replaces Paul Carron, a well-respect executive within fashion circles. Also, another former top executive from Liz, Trudy Sullivan, took the CEO spot at Talbots.

Investors should check out the analyst day before jumping into this stock. If the management presentation is all about pruning brands and lowering costs, I'd run to the hills. Fashion at the end of the day is about new products. No new products and customers leave the store with empty bags.

Market highlights for next week: Google and Yahoo reporting

Monday April 16
  • Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10am.
  • PDUFA date for Neurochem Inc's (NASDAQ: NRMX) Eprodisate extended from today to 7/16.
Tuesday April 17
Wednesday April 18
Thursday April 19
Friday April 20

Analysts not blinded by Sun at investor's day

Sun Microsystems Inc (NASDAQ: SUNW) held its annual investor's day with the investment community yesterday. Analysts seemed not to share Jonathan Schwartz's, CEO of Sun, enthusiasm for where the company is headed.

Here are some opinions from analyst reports which were posted on Barron's Tech Trader Daily:

Richard Gardner of Citigroup believes Schwartz continues to adopt the view that Sun's decision to open source its entire software stack will drive developers and users to its platform(s), eventually creating opportunities to monetize R&D investments. Gardner agrees with the premise that volume drives value, but how much value, for whom and over what time period is still unclear.

Thomas Weisel analyst Kevin Hunt still has concerns regarding the "lackluster" storage business (tape market and integration of StorageTek), and as a result, maintains a Market Weight rating on Sun's shares.

Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore believes that Schwartz and his team are driving operational and product line improvements, but that this is more than reflected in Sun's shares. Whitmore believes Sun's operating margin goal requires double digit revenue growth through F09, and maintains a Hold rating with a price target of $5.50.

Goldman Sachs's Laura Conigliaro said, "There are significant execution elements to be hurdled and timing could be lumpy."

While analysts reports are peppered with optimistic caveats, they are few and far between. Also, analysts and investors are still questioning the reasoning behind the convertible bond offering with KKR.

Sun's stock has had a massive rally recently, it might be time to take some profits.

Yahoo's analyst day: Meet the "Next Yahoo!"

Today is Yahoo!'s first analyst day in three years. Held at the Four Seasons in San Francisco, the meeting runs from 8 am. to 2 p.m. Pacific Time. The actual meeting is by invitation only, but you can see the live webcast.

The meeting is just getting underway, but so far Yahoo!'s stock is holding up pretty well considering how badly the Dow is getting hammered.  At 11:35 a.m. ET, it is down just 2 cents to $30.95. Meantime, the Dow is down 160 points, or 1.4%.

The goal of the meeting is to introduce the "next Yahoo!"

"I feel more invigorated today than ever before," CEO Terry Semel said after presenting the overview. 

Dan Rosensweig, the chief operating officer is up next. Mostly he is going through the home page, highlighting new features. He's on personalization right now -- with an emphasis on "monetization" possibilities.

12:15:

Lloyd Braun, who runs Yahoo!'s media group, is up now. He says Yahoo! will continue with partnerships, new content, and user-generated content. But that's just part of his plans. "The special brew for yahoo is going to be through the integration of our pillars and tools." That means community, personalization, search, etc.

Yahoo!'s programmers will "frame choices" for the user, to send them to other sites. "We need to entice the user to create and to share and make sure the user never reaches a dead end." Even if they leave, they will use Yahoo! search.

Have to say that this doesn't sound like much new to me. 

2:15:

I've been listening to the call off and on today. The emphasis has been on search -- recent improvements, working with advertisers, keeping it front and center for users. Tim Cadogan, vice president of search, was impressive.

Speaking now is Gregory Coleman, executive vice president, global advertising sales. He's talking a lot about targeting. "You need both targeting and tonnage" to get attention, he just said. I'm not quite sure what that means, but I like the aliteration!

 

Continue reading Yahoo's analyst day: Meet the "Next Yahoo!"

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DJIA-74.9212,454.83
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Last updated: May 25, 2012: 04:33 PM

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