Among the many investment pontificators you will find in the media, I pride myself on laying everything out on the table, good calls, bad calls and even my unfortunate periodic stupidity. All of my 2008 picks are down to a varying degree, making me look none too smart in the opening weeks of the year.

Among the stocks I like, Anglo Amercican PLC (NASDAQ: AAUK) has gone down from the $30 level where I recommended it to around $25 a share today. Its 52-week low is $23.38, and its high was $38.75. It pays a dividend currently yielding about 2%.

Early this morning, this was reported: Anglo American Enters Into Exclusive Discussions To Acquire Control Of The MMX Minas-Rio And MMX Amapa Iron Ore Projects. AAUK is a partial owner now and seeks full control of these Brazilian copper mines. Under the leadership of Cynthia Carroll, who became chief executive of Anglo American, it has been refocusing its business structure, planning sales of its building material division Tarmac for $6 billion, while it has also been reducing its stake in gold miner AngloGold Ashanti.

There has been a push to get big in copper, and all of the news out of South America supports this theme. Meanwhile MarketWatch reported China now world's largest gold producer; foreign miners at door. China is now producing more gold than South Africa, which has been the top producer since 1905.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American (AAUK) is down...but!

Chasing Value: Anglo American (AAUK) is down...but! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 18 Jan 2008 16:37:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The price-to-cash flow ratio has been repeatedly promoted in various publications as one of the more important metrics to consider when evaluating a stock to buy. Apparently over long periods of time it is more telling than the often quoted price-to-earnings ratio. I have read that cash flow is a key metric that "my pal Warren" looks at for Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) investments.

Here are the figures for the Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 in order from highest to lowest P/CF. The 12/28/08 starting stock price, yesterday's closing price and the current P/CF for the most recent fiscal year (MRFY) are listed. Only two stocks are up, while six are down.

Continue reading Chasing Value: BG, HNP, LTR, VLO, NCT price-to-cash flow

Chasing Value: BG, HNP, LTR, VLO, NCT price-to-cash flow originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

To me Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is another must-own stock that could end up in M&A discussions, and in this year of uncertainty that's all the more likely. Let's see, it's a global player in diamonds, gold, silver, platinum, coal, and more. This is a currency play, a commodities play, a global play, and an inflation hedge -- got to love that if you can get it at the right price. It was higher, but the closing price on December 28, 2007, for AAUK was $30.79.

Unlike oil prices that may be affected by the weather, new technologies, or alternative sources, these commodities will remain in demand. Gold may be used instead of silver, platinum instead of gold, but except for locating new supplies the demand for these precious metals and commodities can only grow with the growth of the new economies and the wealth of their citizens.

AAUK was one of my better calls during 2007, up about 30%, but I take pause wondering if it will do well based on economic fear driving precious metals up, or whether it will have to rebalance its mining efforts based on less demand for commodities if there is a slow down.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend

Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 05 Jan 2008 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Year-end is almost upon us and I need to get this short list cut down to size with two weeks to go. Because this story is an ongoing process, the heart of the story, the possible stocks, are posted below again, with the latest in bold type as the story builds and I examine things more closely. This week I am adding another energy play in the form of a Canadian Trust. Then I follow with the current edited stock list and the stocks to be cut.

Gallery: Chasing Value: 8 for 2008

In seeking value stocks that have seen their share prices greatly diminished this past year based on reduced earnings, I came across Precision Drilling Trust ADR (NYSE: PDS), which has a P/E near 5 and a dividend yield over 10%. According to AOL Money & Finance information, the company is Canada's largest drilling contractor, with a fleet of 240 service rigs. Its contract drilling units provide drilling services, equipment supply and repair, and on-site catering and management. PDS has extended its reach into the United States this year and has invested in new technology, replaced older rigs and is preparing for continued expansion. Favorable metrics include a low P/B of 1.57 and high historic profit margins of 40%.

PDS closed yesterday at a price of $15.47 per share, near its 52-week low of $15.35, a low set today during the trading day, and 44% off its high of $27.78. The P/E is a trailing figure and is actually higher but the dividend looks secure. For a few more details see: Chasing Value: Precision Drilling for 10% yield.

Disclosure: I have already bought shares of PDS at $17 in several portfolios.

The following stocks have been put in three groups, considering I want to reduce the number to eight. The first group is highly likely to make the cut based on what I know today. The second group is still under consideration but depends on what the value is in two weeks because of current volatility. The last group is being cut, and I noted why.

Continue reading Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out

Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Dec 2007 15:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is going to be a journey ending with eight stock picks for 2008, on December 28, 2007. It is my intention to use the closing prices on that day for those eight stocks as the point of departure to publicly track the results and see if I can beat the market again. This year, as measured through October I have done so. I have also been tracking James Cramer's picks and he too has beaten the market to date, but lags behind me (sorry, couldn't resist). While we made some great picks, we both had some dogs as well. Furthermore, I will be the first one to admit that there is some luck involved in the short run.

Last year I beat the market, earning 29%, and it was my fifth straight year doing so after going down in flames with the rest of you when the tech bubble burst. At that time I also had the pleasure of being an Enron investor as well, so I have made plenty of blunders. But I have learned a lot from my mistakes, and hopefully others can learn from them as well as I share my investing adventures and how I turned things around.

Continue reading Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008

Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

You all can worry about whatever you want to worry about. You can follow the bulls or bears, day traders or CD holders, Wall Street pundits or the guy next door, it does not matter to me. I am looking for opportunity in the rubble.

If you are a true investor, you have a watch list -- when there is fear and negativity in the market like there has been the past few days, there will be opportunities. It is not a time to jump in with both feet, and it is not a time to speculate. It is a time to pick and choose among the companies and stocks you know well.

I would like to own more Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) but it has run up so fast it has escaped my grasp, although I sense an opportunity is in the wings. I would like to own more Anglo American PLC (NYSE: AAUK) but it jumped up after recent acquisition talks in the mining industry and has not settled down yet. And it may not, but I will be patient. My regular readers know I love Huaneng Power Intl ADS (NYSE: HNP), which hardly moved today but has come down significantly in the past week, and that is very, very tempting.

Continue reading Serious Money: This is my type of market -- watch list ready!

Serious Money: This is my type of market -- watch list ready! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Nov 2007 19:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Federal Reserve Board is meeting Tuesday and Wednesday and all eyes will be looking for a rate cut and some clue as to their future bias. When I say all eyes, I mean all eyes; Wall Street, large and small investors, mortgage lenders, big banks, mortgage holders, buyers of our Treasury notes, foreign bankers and foreign treasuries, currency traders - you name it, they're watching!

Crude Oil Rises to Record Above $93 as Mexico Idles Production and could reach $100 a barrel before too long if global events like war, weather, and a weak dollar continue to remain in the headlines. You have heard the term petro-dollars: this is a factor in rising prices. If oil is paid for in dollars and the dollar falls in value compared to other currencies, then it seems only natural that as the value of the dollar falls oil rises. This happens as the oil exporting nations try and maintain a globally stable price. A weaker dollar increases the price of oil for Americans but not so for Europeans. They can exchange their strong Euros for dollars and might even be buying oil at a discount.

This may make pump prices in Europe relative to ours more stable, but it has foreign corporations and Goverenment Treasuries up in arms because they don't want to see their balance of trade and global competitveness negatively affected. The IMF raised concerns last week as did I in Bush administration pushing dollar down or allowing it to fall? IMF chief sounds alarm followed up by my concern that our government does not seem to be concerned in: Is Bush giving the country away without knowing it? It may be advantageous to those at the top of the food chain, but what of the people who are not in the stock market and have to put a higher percentage of their (strained) income into energy costs for gas, and food costs for higher milk, sugar, and other staples?

Continue reading Fed meets: Do more rate cuts equal $100 oil? APC & AAUK up up and away

Fed meets: Do more rate cuts equal $100 oil? APC & AAUK up up and away originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 29 Oct 2007 19:23:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is the fourth update on the stock price status of the first seventeen Chasing Value companies. Closing prices are from September 14, 2007.

The first quarter produced amazing results but the second quarter was downright sad. No one will be surprised to see that anything touching constuction or finance took a bath. I own most of these stocks, so if you do too, I feel your pain. Anyone considering my commentary should "do their homework" too, as James Cramer says on his Mad Money TV show. These recommendations are from the first and second quarter 2007 and I have linked to the original stories.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) closed at $35.66 down from $35.76: a loss of -0.02%, even money.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Anadarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) closed at $50.58 up from $40.84: A gain of 23.85%.

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS: Aluminum Corp. of China (ADS) (NYSE: ACH) closed at $60.95 up from $22.98: A gain of 165%

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) closed at $28.90 up from $24.65: A gain of 17.24%

March 23, 2007 Chasing Value: Cemex and LaFarge look solid: CEMEX S.A. B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: CX) closed at $29.17 down from $34.92: A loss of -16.47%. LaFarge (ADS) (NYSE: LR) closed at $37.80 from $39.02: A loss of -3%.

Cemex sank with the continuous reports of the deteriorating housing market in the United States. In the meantime it continues to move forward with the integration of Rinker, the largest supplier of construction materials in Australia. This makes Cemex the largest in the world and sets the stage for continued growth in Southeast Asia. It also is continuing to focus on reducing debt.

Of all the stocks I have written about in the Chasing Value section, I feel that this one suffered the most from guilt by association. I believe it was fairly valued before and it is on sale now. This company, with it's PEG ratio at .83 and lowered, P/E, P/S, P/B (SEE: AOL Money & Finance) has a ROE over 22 and pays about a 2% dividend yield.

Continue reading Chasing Value update 4: Some great some not: ACH, BSC, CX, DUK, JNJ, USG

Chasing Value update 4: Some great some not: ACH, BSC, CX, DUK, JNJ, USG originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Sep 2007 10:36:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This is the second update on the stock price status of the first six Chasing Value companies. Closing prices are form May 29, 2007. I keep track of my recommendations and anyone considering my commentary should "do their homework" too, just as James Cramer rants on his Mad Money TV show. Since I was tracking these picks I thought I would summarize the findings for our readers. Yes, the time frame is rather short, nevertheless here is the data through the end of May.

February 16, 2007: Chasing value: Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) closed at $35.32 down from $35.76: a loss of 1.5%.

February 23, 2007: Chasing value: Anadarko Petroleum - got it! Anadarko Petroleum Company (NYSE: APC) closed at $52.40 up from $40.84: A gain of 28.3%.

March 3, 2007: Chasing value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS: Aluminim Corp. of China (ADS) (NYSE: ACH) closed at $46.16 up from $22.98: A gain of 101%.

March 20, 2007: Chasing Value: Anglo American - Inflation hedge & more: Anglo American plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) closed at $30.32 up from $24.65: A gain of 23%

March 23, 2007 Chasing Value: Cemex and LaFarge look solid: CEMEX S.A. B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: CX) closed at $38.88 up from $34.92: A gain of 11.34%. LaFarge (ADS) (NYSE: LR) closed at $43.23 from $39.02: A gain of 10.78%.

So far so good; 6 of the 6 stocks are up and 5 of the 6 beat the market indices and I have not included the dividends. Not bad after all.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Disclosure: I own APC and ACH in several portfolios.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Chasing Value Update 2: doing well with WFC, APC, ACH, AAUK, CX, and LR originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 01 Jun 2007 16:37:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.